Predicting the impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Ugam River watershed

Climate change affects the environment and human life across the planet and it is expected that the negative consequences will be large, especially in developing countries, such as Uzbekistan. The objective of this study was to predict the impact of future climate change on the streamflow of Ugam watershed (Chirchik River Basin (CRB)) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, were used as future climate records for the period 2019−2048. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the streamflow from Ugam watershed through using the observed daily flow data from 2007 to 2011. The calibrated SWAT model was used to simulate the impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Ugam River for 2019−2048. The results show that the stream discharge is expected to decrease by approximately 42% within thirty years, with a 1.4 °C increase in temperature and 286 mm decrease in precipitation. The peak point for the future period is 40.32 m3 /s in 2037 whereas the lowest discharge, predicted for 2048, accounts for 22.54 m3 /s. Our study enables to understand the impact of climate change on water resources in the Ugam river and to increase the adaptive capacity of water users and managers in the region.

Land-use change and quality of life in residential neighbourhoods: Evidence from Tehran, Iran

Land-use planning generally aims to manage the development of urban areas to address the needs of the communities. In this regard, the multiple and often competing environmental, economic and social conflicts complicate the process of land-use planning. Commercial development in residential neighbourhoods is a common type of land-use conflict that can dramatically exacerbate these potential conflicts. Over the recent decades, many affluent neighbourhoods of Tehran Metropolis (the capital of Iran) have been confronted with an unbridled development of commercial activities within the residential areas. This paper seeks to understand the process of land-use change and its impacts on the residents’ quality of life in an affluent neighbourhood of Tehran Metropolis (Gisha Neighbourhood) by adopting a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods of impact assessment including semi-structured interview, purposeful field survey, and traffic survey. The results yield that incompatible land-use policies of the Tehran Comprehensive Plan and structural defects in the land-use change regulations led to an unbridled process of commercialisation which intensified non-local activities with city/regional service coverage along the main streets of Gisha Neighbourhood. The analysis demonstrates that despite improving the accessibility of residents to urban facilities and reducing their travel time/cost, the process of land-use changes in Gisha Neighbourhood declined the residents’ quality of life by its considerable negative effects on socio-cultural structures, landuse patterns, traffic flow, and human health in the residential areas of the neighbourhood.

Earning like a Prof: Academic rank wage premia in Ústí nad Labem, Czechia

The article attempts to estimate the size of the wage premia fetched by ranked academics on the academic market in Ústí nad Labem, Czechia. We employed a large (anonymized) data set of contracts and wages of employees of a medium-sized regional public university in Ústí nad Labem. We used OLS regression in various specifications to determine the wage premia of all educational levels (mainly full professors over associate professors/ docents and associate professors/docents over assistant professors/PhDs) while controlling for many attributes (of employees or contracts) possibly affecting wage levels. The local context regarding the topic of this article is discussed as well. The results generally confirm the intuition and show a clear pattern of increasing wages with levels and ranks. Focusing predominantly on the academic ranks, the monthly premium of associate professors (docents) over PhDs seems to be somewhere between 5 and 6 thousand CZK (185 and 220 EUR), and the premium of full professors over associate professors to an average of around 4 thousand CZK (150 EUR). The latter premium, however, exhibits systematic variation across different schools within the university: in some it is insignificant (around 0), while in others it is rather large and averages around 8 thousand CZK (300 EUR).

Moral wrongs, indigeneity and the enactment of farmer-herder conflicts violence in South-Eastern Nigeria

Existing studies of the farmer-herder conflicts (FHCs) in Nigeria have not explored the political ecology of the conflict in South-Eastern Nigeria (SEN). Using the political ecology framework (PEF), the paper examines the nature of the FHCs in Nimbo and Awgu areas in SEN. Data were collected through field observations and in-depth interviews. The paper shows that resource scarcity or reduced farming and grazing spaces did not engender violent FHCs in the study area. Instead, actions of the actors that are perceived to be morally wrong are critical. Allegations of moral transgression such as rape, kidnapping by herders and claims that a herder was used as a sacrifice by villagers triggered the violent episode. The pastoralists are discriminated against on the ground of indigenous belonging only after being alleged to have morally transgressed by kidnapping and raping women. However, on the ground that a herder was allegedly used as a sacrifice, they felt also wronged. While the herders are discriminated against based on their non-belonging in the community because they are not indigenous, they have mount resistance by emphasising their citizenship rights and using force to maintain access to grazing spaces, thereby amplifying the farmer-herder tensions. Thus, while identity has contributed to the FHCs violence, moral wrongs enacted and amplified it. The paper contributes to the literature by arguing that while what triggers FHCs may be moral wrongs, moral transgressions can heighten identity constructions that get implicated in practices of exclusion.

The landfill from nickel production in Danubian Lowland and its environmental implications

The main objective of the paper is to point out to the origin of the waste from the production of nickel at the landfill in Sereď and its physical and chemical properties that affect the environmental conditions of the site. The landfill of metallurgical technological waste in Sereď is the second largest landfill for non-ferrous metallurgy in Slovakia (Central Europe). It is located in the northern part of the Danubian Lowland, southwest of the industrial zone of town Sereď. We divided the research into two phases. The preparatory phase consisted in obtaining all available archival materials for the years 1956−1993, so from of the construction of the plant to the end of production. The production was lasting from 1963 to 1993. The second phase concerned field research and was associated with sludge sampling for laboratory analysis. The results of the analysis identified the physical and chemical properties of the sludge as well as the possibilities of its use in some sectors of the economy. The production process in the nickel smelter was stopped in 1993 due to economic (annual state production subsidy was CZK 250 million) and ecological reasons. The landfill at the city’s industrial zone has remained to this day, but it was sold to a private company in 1994, thus relieving of the state’s liability for environmental damage.

Landslides in Central Asia: a review of papers published in 2000–2020 with a particular focus on the importance of GIS and remote sensing techniques

Landslides are among the major environmental hazards with large-scale socio-economic and environmental impacts that jeopardize socio-economic wellbeing in mountainous regions. Landslides are due to the interaction of several complex factors such as local or regional geology, geomorphology, topography, and seismic motions. The goal of this study is to review published articles on causes and effects of landslides in Central Asia throughout 2000–2020. In line with this goal, we have collected (using Scopus database), reviewed, and analyzed 79 papers published during 2000–2020. Our results revealed an increasing number of landslide studies in Central Asia during the period under investigation, with authors from Belgium dominating in the published outcomes (28% of total), followed by authors from Central-Asian countries. After then, the paper analyses the mostly applied models and frequently identified driving conditions and triggers of landsliding, such as aspect, altitude, soil types, precipitation, earthquakes and human interventions. Geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) had not commonly been used in the papers between 2000 and 2010, and they have progressively been applied in landslide studies in Central Asia in the last decade. According to our analysis, geotechnical, geophysical and statistical methods were preferably used for the landslide studies in Central Asia.

Landscape valuation of historical tourism site in Northern Iran: A case study from Sheikh-Zahed Tomb

In Iran, the importance of landscapes and the need to preserve these unique assets is not particularly recognized especially at tourism and environmental sites. This study investigated the landscape valuation of Sheikh-Zahed Tomb in Northern Iran. The contingent valuation method (CVM), which is based on a survey model, was used to assess visitors’ willingness to pay (WTP) in order to preserve the landscape. The data used in this study were collected though face-to-face interviews with 157 visitors to a historic tomb in the first half of 2019. The results indicate that the average of respondents’ WTP to preserve the landscape was 0.47 $ per year. The annual total economic value (TEV) of the landscape is estimated to be 11 960 782 $. Respondents’ age, monthly income of the respondent’s household, the tomb accessibility, the tomb architectural attraction, and proposed price for the landscape preservation had significant effects on WTP. Proposed empirical model (CVM) provides a comprehensive framework for illustrating landscape valuation of natural heritages and historical tourism sites globally as well as in Iran. Highlights for public administration, management and planning: • The evaluation of landscape values of historical site of Sheikh-Zahed tomb (Iran) for visitors is presented. • Both types of qualitative and quantitative variables affect WTP of visitors for the landscape preservation. • Among the key factors, the accessibility to the landscape affects its value for visitors, and the pristine and original landscape of the tomb is important for visitors.

Modelling urban mixed land-use prediction using influence parameters

Mixed land-use is a popular concept in urban planning due to its expected role in improving environmental sustainability as well as citizen’s quality of life. Land use planning and regulations are not stringent in many cities like those in India, and policies are liberal towards mixed land uses. In these cities, mixed land-uses are a natural phenomenon manifesting under various influencing parameters. However, for studies on mixed land-uses, these cities pose data insufficiency challenges, as vital comprehensive spatial information related to land-uses is not available. Moreover, there is no standardised methodology established to assess the spatial distribution of mixed land-uses at the city level. This research has developed a GIS-based model using Weighted Overlay Analysis to predict and visualise the probability of mixed land-use at the macro or city level for the case of Pune, India. The model uses the easily available spatial data of influencing parameters of mixed land-use as input for prediction instead of comprehensive real land-use data. The model is validated by comparing the predicted mixed land-use intensities with established indicators of mixed land-use for four neighbourhoods. It is found that parameters that influence mixed land-use such as connectivity, grain pattern, population density and access to amenities can be used to predict the probability of mixed land-use. Around 35 per cent of the city area of Pune has more than 0.67 probability of mixed land-use. The model can produce the probable mixed land-use distribution across the city and can be used to compute mixed land-use intensities for neighbourhoods. Highlights for public administration, management and planning: • Mixed land-use probability distribution for Pune City, India is generated using Weighted Overlay Analysis in GIS. • As vital spatial data of land-use was unavailable, the prediction model uses data of influencing parameters of mixed land-uses such as population density, connectivity, grain pattern and access to amenities. • The mixed land-use probabilities predicted can be used to compute mixed land-use intensities of neighbourhoods. It is validated by comparing with traditional mixed land-use indicators.

Moving Across Borders: Brain or brain gain? A comparative in Czechia and Germany

The continuous drain of young university graduates leaving the country poses the threat of considerable loss, both economic and social. On the other hand, temporary labour migration can bring positive effects (experience, foreign know how). The objective of the article was to identify the attitude of German and Czech university undergraduates to labour migration and to explore the motivation factors that play a role in their decision-making. The research sample consisted of students of economics who study at regional universities in North Bohemia and neighbouring German Saxony. It was established that German students declare a greater interest in working abroad, but they tend to prefer temporary labour migration, while Czech students think more about permanently moving abroad, provided they are considering leaving for another country. Logistic forward stepwise regression was selected to establish significant explaining variables. Surprisingly, “higher salary” did not figure in the created models as an explaining variable in a single case. The amount of salary is an important motivation factor (both for Czech and German students), however, it is not the main factor which influences their decision to go abroad. The explaining variables “I want to live in a different country” and “the opportunity to gain international work experience” were shown in both cases. Governments as well as regional authorities should pay attention to the reasons why qualified workers decide on labour migration and they should pay due care to establishing why qualified workers want to live in a different country. Temporary labour migration should be encouraged and, at the same time, such conditions should be created to motivate highly qualified workers to return home. Highlights for public administration, management and planning: • The departure of young people with a university degree abroad represents considerable not only economic but also social losses. • Temporary labour migration, however, can bring positive effects (experience, foreign know-how). German students declare interest in temporary labour migration, while Czech students prefer permanent migration. • The salary is an important motivational factor (for both Czech and German students), but it is not the main factor that influences the decision to move abroad. • Governments, as well as regional authorities, should pay attention to the reasons that lead qualified workers to decide for labour migration and to look closely at answers to why young people want to live in another country. • Temporary labour migration should be supported by both government and regional authorities. In contrast, conditions should be created to eliminate permanent labour migration.

Mapping the morphology of sprawl and blight: A note on entropy

The urban expansion from the city center to the suburb and beyond is indicated by Shannon entropy, a robust and versatile measure of sprawl. However, the metropolitan regionwide entropy masks the morphology of land cover and land use consequential to urban expansion within the city-region. To surmount the limitation, we focus on the block-group, which is a US census defined socio-spatial unit that identifies the metropolitan region’s development pattern structurally, forming tracts that comprise neighborhoods. The concentration and dispersion of land use and land cover by block-group reveals a North American metropolitan region’s commonly known but rarely measured spatial structure of its urban and suburban sprawl. We use parcel data from county assessor of property (GIS) and land cover pixel data from the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) to compute block-group land-use and land-cover entropy. The change in block group entropy over a decade indicates whether the city- region’s land use and land cover transition to a concentrated or dispersed pattern. Furthermore, we test a hypothesis that blight correlates with sprawl. Blight and sprawl are among the key factors that plague the metropolitan region. We determine the correlations with household income as well as (block group) distance from the city center. It turns out, blight is among the universally held distance-decay phenomena. The share of the block group’s blighted properties decays (nonlinearly) with distance from the city center. Highlights for public administration, management and planning: • The metropolitan region’s outward growth is highlighted by mapping the changing morphology of the block group within the city-region. • The block group entropy is computed with land use (parcel) and land cover (pixel) data. • The block group entropy change indicates the pattern of the land use and land cover transition with concentration or dispersion. • We test the hypothesis that blight correlates with sprawl with statistical models. • The block group’s blighted properties decrease (nonlinearly) with distance from the city center.