Sensitivity of physical parameterizations on prediction of tropical cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal using WRF model

2011 ◽  
Vol 113 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 125-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. V. S. Raju ◽  
Jayaraman Potty ◽  
U. C. Mohanty
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Cyclone Nargis ◽  
Physical Parameterizations

scholarly journals The Efficacy of the WRF-ARW Model in the Genesis and Intensity Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Fani over the Bay of Bengal

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 85-100
Author(s):  
Md Shakil Hossain ◽  
Md Abdus Samad ◽  
SM Arif Hossen ◽  
SM Quamrul Hassan ◽  
MAK Malliak
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Outcome Analysis ◽  
Time Model ◽  
Cyclonic Storm ◽  
Arw Model ◽  
Global Data Assimilation System

An attempt has been carried out to assess the efficacy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting the genesis and intensification events of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) Fani (26 April – 04 May 2019) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). WRF model has been conducted on a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) FNL (final) data (0.250 × 0.250). According to the model simulated outcome analysis, the model is capable of predicting the Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and Maximum Sustainable Wind Speed (MSWS) pattern reasonably well, despite some deviations. The model has forecasted the Lowest Central Pressure (LCP) of 919 hPa and the MSWS of 70 ms-1 based on 0000 UTC of 26 April. Except for the model run based on 0000 UTC of 26 April, the simulated values of LCP are relatively higher than the observations. According to the statistical analysis, MSLP and MSWS at 850 hPa level demonstrate a significantly greater influence on Tropical Cyclone (TC) formation and intensification process than any other parameters. The model can predict the intensity features well enough, despite some uncertainty regarding the proper lead time of the model run. Reduced lead time model run, particularly 24 to 48 hr, can be chosen to forecast the genesis and intensification events of TC with minimum uncertainty. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 85-100

Impact of Boundary Layer Physics on Tropical Cyclone Simulations in the Bay of Bengal Using the WRF Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 177 (11) ◽  
pp. 5523-5550
Author(s):  
J. R. Rajeswari ◽  
C. V. Srinivas ◽  
P. Reshmi Mohan ◽  
B. Venkatraman
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Wrf Model

Simulations of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal Using RIMES Operational System

2011 ◽  
Vol 169 (10) ◽  
pp. 1909-1920 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. V. S. Raju ◽  
Jayaraman Potty ◽  
U. C. Mohanty
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Operational System ◽  
Cyclone Nargis

scholarly journals Studying the Intensity and Storm Surge Phenomena of Tropical Cyclone Roanu (2016) over the Bay of Bengal Using NWP Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-68
Author(s):  
M. I. Ali ◽  
M. Saifullah ◽  
A. Imran ◽  
I. M. Syed ◽  
M. A. K. Mallik
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Surge Height

Tropical Cyclone (TC) is the most devastating atmospheric incidents which occur frequently in pre-monsoon and the post-monsoon season in Bangladesh. The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is one of the most vulnerable places of TC induced storm surge. The triangular shape of BoB plays an important role to drive the sea water towards the coast and amplify the surges. In this study, minimum central pressure, maximum wind speed and track of TC Roanu are predicted by the WRF model. At the same time, prediction of cyclone induced storm surge for TC Roanu is done by using MRI storm surge model which is conducted by JMA. The input files for this parametric model is provided by using simulated data of WRF model and observed data of IMD. The results are compared with available recorded data of surge height for this cyclone. The differences in simulated output for two different input files are also studied. The maximum surge height from the MRI model is found 3 m using WRF simulated data and for IMD estimated data the maximum surge height is found 2.5 m. The simulated surge heights are found in decent contract with the available reported data of the storm surges.

Modulation of low-latitude west wind on abnormal track and intensity of tropical cyclone Nargis (2008) in the Bay of Bengal

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 407-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Wei Li ◽  
Chunzai Wang ◽  
Dongxiao Wang ◽  
Lei Yang ◽  
Yi Deng
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
West Wind ◽  
Cyclone Nargis

scholarly journals The Impact of Cumulus Parameterization Schemes on the Simulation of Tropical Cyclone “Roanu” Over the Bay of Bengal Using WRF Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-94
Author(s):  
Saifullah ◽  
Md Idris Ali ◽  
Ashik Imran
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization Schemes ◽  
The Impact

A sensitivity study has been made on cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the simulation of tropical cyclone Roanu which formed over Bay of Bengal during May 2016. The model was run for 72 hours with different CP schemes such as Kain–Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell–Freit as Ensemble (GFE), Grell 3D Ensemble (G3E) and Grell–Devenyi (GD) Ensemble schemes to study the variation in track, intensity. The landfall position error is minimum for BMJ scheme but the time delayed only 1.5-5 hours for all schemes except GD scheme. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of minimum sea level pressure and maximum wind speed is smaller for BMJ, GFE, GD schemes. The RMSE-MAE of rainfall is minimum for BMJ and G3E schemes. Except GD scheme all the other schemes give the better result. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 68(1): 87-94, 2020 (January)

scholarly journals The Sensitivity of Microphysical Parameterization Schemes on the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Mora Over the Bay of Bengal using WRF-ARW Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-40
Author(s):  
Md Jafrul Islam ◽  
Ashik Imran ◽  
Ishtiaque M Syed ◽  
SM Quamrul Hassan ◽  
Md Idris Ali
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Microphysical Process ◽  
Cloud Dynamics ◽  
Arw Model ◽  
Microphysical Parameterization

The sensitivity of Microphysics Parameterization (MP) schemes has been analyzed in the prediction of intensity and track of tropical cyclone (TC) Mora (28th May-31st May, 2017), over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) using WRF model. The study of MP schemes in numerical simulation is important because it includes microphysical process and cloud dynamics that controls the latent heat release in clouds. In this study seven MP schemes (Kessler, Lin, WSM3, Eta, WSM6, MYDM7, and WDM5) are used to study the variation in Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP), Maximum Wind Speed (MWS), rainfall distributions, and Tracks. The root mean square error (RMSE) of MSLP, MWS and 72-h simulated tracks are found minimum for WSM3 scheme while the RMSE of rainfall, 48 and 24-h simulated tracks are found minimum for WDM5 scheme. In conclusion, WSM3 and WDM5 schemes may give better results in the prediction of slowly intensifying TC like Mora. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 67(1): 33-40, 2019 (January)

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