scholarly journals The Impact of Cumulus Parameterization Schemes on the Simulation of Tropical Cyclone “Roanu” Over the Bay of Bengal Using WRF Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-94
Author(s):  
Saifullah ◽  
Md Idris Ali ◽  
Ashik Imran
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization Schemes ◽  
The Impact

A sensitivity study has been made on cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the simulation of tropical cyclone Roanu which formed over Bay of Bengal during May 2016. The model was run for 72 hours with different CP schemes such as Kain–Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell–Freit as Ensemble (GFE), Grell 3D Ensemble (G3E) and Grell–Devenyi (GD) Ensemble schemes to study the variation in track, intensity. The landfall position error is minimum for BMJ scheme but the time delayed only 1.5-5 hours for all schemes except GD scheme. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of minimum sea level pressure and maximum wind speed is smaller for BMJ, GFE, GD schemes. The RMSE-MAE of rainfall is minimum for BMJ and G3E schemes. Except GD scheme all the other schemes give the better result. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 68(1): 87-94, 2020 (January)

scholarly journals Impact of Coupling an Ocean Model to WRF Nor’easter Simulations

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (12) ◽  
pp. 4997-5016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen D. Nicholls ◽  
Steven G. Decker
Keyword(s):  
Storm Track ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Model Coupling ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling and its possible seasonal dependence upon Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations of seven, wintertime cyclone events was investigated. Model simulations were identical aside from the degree of ocean model coupling (static SSTs, 1D mixed layer model, full-physics 3D ocean model). Both 1D and 3D ocean model coupling simulations show that SSTs following the passage of a nor’easter did tend to cool more strongly during the early season (October–December) and were more likely to warm late in the season (February–April). Model simulations produce SST differences of up to 1.14 K, but this change did not lead to significant changes in storm track (<100 km), maximum 10-m winds (<2 m s−1), or minimum sea level pressure (≤5 hPa). Simulated precipitation showed little sensitivity to model coupling, but all simulations did tend to overpredict precipitation extent (bias > 1) and have low-to-moderate threat scores (0.31–0.59). Analysis of the storm environment and the overall simulation failed to reveal any statistically significant differences in model error attributable to ocean–atmosphere coupling. Despite this result, ocean model coupling can reduce dynamical field error at a single level by up to 20%, and this was slightly greater (1%–2%) with 3D ocean model coupling as compared to 1D ocean model coupling. Thus, while 3D ocean model coupling tended to generally produce more realistic simulations, its impact would likely be more profound for longer-term simulations.

scholarly journals Simulation of Structure, Track and Landfall of Tropical Cyclone Bijli Using WRF-ARW Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
KM Zahir Rayhun ◽  
DA Quadir ◽  
MA Mannan Chowdhury ◽  
MN Ahasan ◽  
MS Haque
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Arw Model ◽  
Boundary Layer Scheme ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization Schemes ◽  
Academy Of Sciences

An attempt was made to simulate the structure, track, landfall and a few dynamical aspects of the tropical cyclone Bijli that formed over the Bay of Bengal using WRF-ARW model. WRF model was run in a single domain using KF cumulus parameterization schemes with WSM 3 micro physics and YSU planetary boundary layer scheme. The ARW model was run for 24, 48, 72 and 96 hrs to simulate structure, track and landfall of tropical cyclones Bijli. The different simulated parameters viz. minimum sea level pressure, maximum wind speed, convective available potential energy and relative vorticity have been studied. The results showed that the model is capable to forecast the formation of the first depression 60 - 78 hrs in advance. This indicates the high and unique predictive power of ARW model for predicting the tropical cyclone formation. The model generates a realistic structure of the tropical cyclones with high spatial details. This was possible due to the higher spatial resolution of the regional model. One of the outstanding findings of the study is that the model was successfully predicted the tracks, recurvature and probable areas and time of landfall of the selected tropical cyclone Bijli with high accuracy even in the 96 hrs predictions.Journal of Bangladesh Academy of Sciences, Vol. 39, No. 2, 157-167, 2015

scholarly journals Orography-Induced Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization in the Global WRF: Implementation and Sensitivity to Shortwave Radiation Schemes

2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyeyum Hailey Shin ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
Jimy Dudhia ◽  
Young-Joon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
The Impact

This paper describes the implementation of the orographic gravity wave drag (GWDO) processes induced by subgrid-scale orography in the global version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The sensitivity of the model simulated climatology to the representation of shortwave radiation and the addition of the GWDO processes is investigated using the Kim-Arakawa GWDO parameterization and the Goddard, RRTMG (Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs), and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes. This sensitivity study is a part of efforts of selecting the physics package that can be useful in applying the WRF model to global and seasonal configuration. The climatology is relatively well simulated by the global WRF; the zonal mean zonal wind and temperature structures are reasonably represented with the Kim-Arakawa GWDO scheme using the Goddard and RRTMG shortwave schemes. It is found that the impact of the shortwave radiation scheme on the modeled atmosphere is pronounced in the upper atmospheric circulations above the tropopause mainly due to the ozone heating. The scheme that excludes the ozone process suffers from a distinct cold bias in the stratosphere. Moreover, given the improper thermodynamic environment conditions by the shortwave scheme, the role of the GWDO process is found to be limited.

scholarly journals The Contribution of Lake Enhancement to Extreme Snowfall within the Chicago–Milwaukee Urban Corridor during the 2011 Groundhog Day Blizzard

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (6) ◽  
pp. 2405-2420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan D. Owens ◽  
Robert M. Rauber ◽  
Brian F. Jewett ◽  
Greg M. McFarquhar
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Structure Stability ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Dewpoint Temperature ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Urban Corridor ◽  
The City

Abstract This paper examines the impact of the Laurentian Great Lakes (GL) on atmospheric structure, stability, and precipitation within the Chicago–Milwaukee urban corridor during the passage of the 1–2 February 2011 extratropical cyclone. This storm produced the third largest snowfall [53.8 cm (21.2 in.)] recorded in a 130-yr period in the city of Chicago. Two simulations of the storm using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are described: the first with the GL present, and the second with the lakes replaced with land having characteristics of adjacent shores. The GL were found to alter the surface temperature and moisture fields in their lee during cyclone passage. The changes were limited to the layer below the frontal inversion, but were significant enough to reduce the mean sea level pressure in some locations by 2.0–2.5 hPa, and raise the surface temperature and dewpoint temperature by 2°–4°C across several states downwind. In the Chicago–Milwaukee metropolitan corridor where the heavy snow occurred, the surface temperature and dewpoint temperature increased from +3° to +6°C as a result of heating and moistening of the lower atmosphere by the GL. Enhanced convergence also occurred along the downwind shoreline. Despite these changes, the areal impact on precipitation was surprisingly small, with liquid equivalent precipitation increases exceeding 5 mm limited to a small area over metropolitan Chicago late in the storm. The reason for the limited impact appeared to be the shallow nature of the cold air mass below the frontal inversion. Nevertheless, over metropolitan Chicago, as much as 20% of the snowfall could be attributed to the presence of the GL.

scholarly journals Impacts of Topsoil and Surface Water Salinity on Agriculture: A Study at Paikgachha, Khulna

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Md Ferdous ur Rahman Bhuiya ◽  
Md Humayun Kabir ◽  
Muhammad Ferdaus
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Small Deviation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Surface Water Salinity ◽  
Maximum Sustained Wind Speed

Studying the structure, intensity and track of tropical cyclone is very important in effective tropical cyclone warning. In this study, an attempt has been made to simulate the Super Cyclone Amphan to reproduce the structure, intensity and track of the storm that occurred over the Bay of Bengal and made landfall over the coastal zone of Sundarban between Western Bangladesh and Eastern West Bengal of India on 20 May 2020. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was run 120 hours from 0000 UTC of 16 May to 0000 UTC of 21 May 2021 with 9 km horizontal resolution to simulate the selected storm. The model simulated intensity and track of the storm were compared with that of best track data of India Meteorological Department (IMD). The results obtained from the WRF model indicated that the intensity of the selected cyclone in terms of Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and Maximum Sustained Wind speed (MSW) were 905 hPa and 243 kph whereas the observed MSLP and MSW were close to 920 hPa and 241 kph respectively. It was also indicated that the model predicted the track of the cyclone reasonably well and it was quite close to the best track data throughout its path till landfall with very small deviation and the cyclone made landfall at 7-8 hours before the actual landfall with 167.4 km position error. The Dhaka University Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 8(2), 2019, P 25-32

scholarly journals The Sensitivity of Microphysical Parameterization Schemes on the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Mora Over the Bay of Bengal using WRF-ARW Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-40
Author(s):  
Md Jafrul Islam ◽  
Ashik Imran ◽  
Ishtiaque M Syed ◽  
SM Quamrul Hassan ◽  
Md Idris Ali
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Microphysical Process ◽  
Cloud Dynamics ◽  
Arw Model ◽  
Microphysical Parameterization

The sensitivity of Microphysics Parameterization (MP) schemes has been analyzed in the prediction of intensity and track of tropical cyclone (TC) Mora (28th May-31st May, 2017), over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) using WRF model. The study of MP schemes in numerical simulation is important because it includes microphysical process and cloud dynamics that controls the latent heat release in clouds. In this study seven MP schemes (Kessler, Lin, WSM3, Eta, WSM6, MYDM7, and WDM5) are used to study the variation in Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP), Maximum Wind Speed (MWS), rainfall distributions, and Tracks. The root mean square error (RMSE) of MSLP, MWS and 72-h simulated tracks are found minimum for WSM3 scheme while the RMSE of rainfall, 48 and 24-h simulated tracks are found minimum for WDM5 scheme. In conclusion, WSM3 and WDM5 schemes may give better results in the prediction of slowly intensifying TC like Mora. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 67(1): 33-40, 2019 (January)

scholarly journals Evaluation of WRF Model Simulations of Tornadic and Nontornadic Outbreaks Occurring in the Spring and Fall

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (11) ◽  
pp. 4098-4119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad M. Shafer ◽  
Andrew E. Mercer ◽  
Lance M. Leslie ◽  
Michael B. Richman ◽  
Charles A. Doswell
Keyword(s):  
Wrf Model ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Significant Events ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Time Of Year ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks ◽  
Thermodynamic Instability

Abstract Recent studies, investigating the ability to use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to distinguish tornado outbreaks from primarily nontornadic outbreaks when initialized with synoptic-scale data, have suggested that accurate discrimination of outbreak type is possible up to three days in advance of the outbreaks. However, these studies have focused on the most meteorologically significant events without regard to the season in which the outbreaks occurred. Because tornado outbreaks usually occur during the spring and fall seasons, whereas the primarily nontornadic outbreaks develop predominantly during the summer, the results of these studies may have been influenced by climatological conditions (e.g., reduced shear, in the mean, in the summer months), in addition to synoptic-scale processes. This study focuses on the impacts of choosing outbreaks of severe weather during the same time of year. Specifically, primarily nontornadic outbreaks that occurred during the summer have been replaced with outbreaks that do not occur in the summer. Subjective and objective analyses of the outbreak simulations indicate that the WRF’s capability of distinguishing outbreak type correctly is reduced when the seasonal constraints are included. However, accuracy scores exceeding 0.7 and skill scores exceeding 0.5 using 1-day simulation fields of individual meteorological parameters, show that precursor synoptic-scale processes play an important role in the occurrence or absence of tornadoes in severe weather outbreaks. Low-level storm-relative helicity parameters and synoptic parameters, such as geopotential heights and mean sea level pressure, appear to be most helpful in distinguishing outbreak type, whereas thermodynamic instability parameters are noticeably both less accurate and less skillful.

scholarly journals The Impact of Convective Momentum Transport on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Using the Emanuel Cumulus Parameterization

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (4) ◽  
pp. 1195-1207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy F. Hogan ◽  
Randal L. Pauley
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Momentum Transport ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Transport Parameter ◽  
Medium Range Forecast ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Convective Momentum Transport ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The influence of convective momentum transport (CMT) on tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts is examined in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) with the Emanuel cumulus parameterization. Data assimilation and medium-range forecast experiments show that for 35 tropical cyclones during August and September 2004 the inclusion of CMT in the cumulus parameterization significantly improves the TC track forecasts. The tests show that the track forecasts are very sensitive to the magnitude of the Emanuel parameterization’s convective momentum transport parameter, which controls the CMT tendency returned by the parameterization. While the overall effect of this formulation of CMT in NOGAPS data assimilation/medium-range forecasts results in the surface pressure of tropical cyclones being less intense (and more consistent with the analysis), the parameterization is not equivalent to a simple diffusion of winds in the presence of convection. This is demonstrated by two data assimilation/medium-range forecast tests in which a vertical diffusion algorithm replaces the CMT. Two additional data assimilation/medium-range forecast experiments were conducted to test whether the skill increase primarily comes from the CMT in the immediate vicinity of the tropical cyclones. The results show that the inclusion of the CMT calculation in the vicinity of the TC makes the largest contribution to the increase in forecast skill, but the general contribution of CMT away from the TC also plays an important role.

Pathways to the Production of Precipitating Hydrometeors and Tropical Cyclone Development

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (6) ◽  
pp. 2395-2420 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-W. Bao ◽  
S. A. Michelson ◽  
E. D. Grell
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
Vertical Distributions ◽  
Double Moment ◽  
Microphysical Processes ◽  
Definition Of

Abstract Pathways to the production of precipitation in two cloud microphysics schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are investigated in a scenario of tropical cyclone intensification. Comparisons of the results from the WRF Model simulations indicate that the variation in the simulated initial rapid intensification of an idealized tropical cyclone is due to the differences between the two cloud microphysics schemes in their representations of pathways to the formation and growth of precipitating hydrometeors. Diagnoses of the source and sink terms of the hydrometeor budget equations indicate that the major differences in the production of hydrometeors between the schemes are in the spectral definition of individual hydrometeor categories and spectrum-dependent microphysical processes, such as accretion growth and sedimentation. These differences lead to different horizontally averaged vertical profiles of net latent heating rate associated with significantly different horizontally averaged vertical distributions and production rates of hydrometeors in the simulated clouds. Results from this study also highlight the possibility that the advantage of double-moment formulations can be overshadowed by the uncertainties in the spectral definition of individual hydrometeor categories and spectrum-dependent microphysical processes.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document