Modeling sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean

2013 ◽  
Vol 116 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 11-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nittaya McNeil ◽  
Suree Chooprateep
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
The North Atlantic

scholarly journals AMO-like variations of holocene sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 2465-2496 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Feng ◽  
Q. Hu ◽  
R. J. Oglesby
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Spatial Extent ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Instrumental records of the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) show a significant 60–80 year cycle, referred to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During AMO warm (cold) phases, SST over the entire North Atlantic Ocean is dominated by basin-wide positive (negative) anomalies. We analyzed SST variations in the North Atlantic Ocean for the last 10 ka. The long-term and centennial variations of Holocene SST in the North Atlantic demonstrate a basin-wide mode that clearly resembles the AMO signal recorded during the recent instrumental period. The long-term changes of Holocene SST were controlled by the solar insolation related to the orbital variations, and the centennial variations were closely coupled with the intensity of the thermohaline circulation. The spatial extent in the Atlantic realm of temperature anomalies around two specific time intervals, 8.2 ka and during the medieval warm period, also resemble the observed temperature anomalies associated with the AMO. These results demonstrate that the modern AMO, and centennial and longer time scale SST variations during the Holocene share a similar spatial extent in the North Atlantic, and presumably as well physical processes associated with their existence and their far-field teleconnection effects.

scholarly journals Modeled and Observed Multidecadal Variability in the North Atlantic Jet Stream and Its Connection to Sea Surface Temperatures

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8313-8338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isla R. Simpson ◽  
Clara Deser ◽  
Karen A. McKinnon ◽  
Elizabeth A. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Jet

Multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic jet stream in general circulation models (GCMs) is compared with that in reanalysis products of the twentieth century. It is found that almost all models exhibit multidecadal jet stream variability that is entirely consistent with the sampling of white noise year-to-year atmospheric fluctuations. In the observed record, the variability displays a pronounced seasonality within the winter months, with greatly enhanced variability toward the late winter. This late winter variability exceeds that found in any GCM and greatly exceeds expectations from the sampling of atmospheric noise, motivating the need for an underlying explanation. The potential roles of both external forcings and internal coupled ocean–atmosphere processes are considered. While the late winter variability is not found to be closely connected with external forcing, it is found to be strongly related to the internally generated component of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In fact, consideration of the seasonality of the jet stream variability within the winter months reveals that the AMV is far more strongly connected to jet stream variability during March than the early winter months or the winter season as a whole. Reasoning is put forward for why this connection likely represents a driving of the jet stream variability by the SSTs, although the dynamics involved remain to be understood. This analysis reveals a fundamental mismatch between late winter jet stream variability in observations and GCMs and a potential source of long-term predictability of the late winter Atlantic atmospheric circulation.

Analysing and projecting spatial drought conditions of the Seine catchment based on ocean-atmosphere oscillations over interannual and decadal scales

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwok Pan Chun ◽  
Qing He ◽  
Bastien Dieppois ◽  
Nicolas Massei ◽  
Matthieu Fournier
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
The North ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>Midlatitude droughts are affected by the tropical disturbances, which are linked to sea-surface temperature patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The combined effects of these two ocean basins manifest themselves in the variation of streamflows, from land surface filtering. In this study, we have developed a framework to explore the effects of global sea surface temperature variations along with atmospheric teleconnection patterns, on local hydroclimatic conditions related to droughts over the Seine catchment, a main waterway in northern France. Using the Standardized Runoff-discharge Index (SRI) to quantify hydrological drought conditions over the Seine, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was found to be a significant driver for the upstream dryness between 2001 and 2015. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index was also found to be a significant forcing variable, but for the Seine downstream. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the West Mediterranean Sea (WMED) indices were significant over almost the whole Seine River basin. Results show that the drought spatial patterns of the Seine River vary differently with the atmospheric and oceanic oscillations from interannual to decadal scales. Over a small catchment with a drainage area around 78,700 square kilometres, the spatial drought variations in the Seine catchment appear to be usual, and they are likely to be related to regional conditions which drive local land surface mechanisms linked with microclimates or geological processes. In general, during the negative phase of AMO and the positive phase of ENSO, the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean is low. The positive phase of NAO also lowers sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean and the West Mediterranean Sea. Droughts are likely to occur at the Seine during the negative phase of AMO and the positive phase of NAO, because the cold North Atlantic Ocean has less evaporation and provides less moisture to France. Based on these results, a statistical downscaling model is developed to relate SRI to atmospheric and oceanic oscillation indices, which are derived from the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace climate model (IPSL-CM5) outputs. Using this statistical downscaling model and scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the drought conditions of the Seine are projected for the mid- and long-term future (2050s and 2080s). Diverse drought results are obtained. Based on relative importance of oscillation indices, the implications of diverse projections for general drought managements in midlatitude regions related to tropical sea surface temperature disturbances and atmospheric teleconnections are discussed.</p>

scholarly journals Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 477-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Sévellec ◽  
Alexey V. Fedorov
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

This study investigates the excitation of decadal variability and predictability of the ocean climate state in the North Atlantic. Specifically, initial linear optimal perturbations (LOPs) in temperature and salinity that vary with depth, longitude, and latitude are computed, and the maximum impact on the ocean of these perturbations is evaluated in a realistic ocean general circulation model. The computations of the LOPs involve a maximization procedure based on Lagrange multipliers in a nonautonomous context. To assess the impact of these perturbations four different measures of the North Atlantic Ocean state are used: meridional volume and heat transports (MVT and MHT) and spatially averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC). It is shown that these metrics are dramatically different with regard to predictability. Whereas OHC and SST can be efficiently modified only by basin-scale anomalies, MVT and MHT are also strongly affected by smaller-scale perturbations. This suggests that instantaneous or even annual-mean values of MVT and MHT are less predictable than SST and OHC. Only when averaged over several decades do the former two metrics have predictability comparable to the latter two, which highlights the need for long-term observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in order to accumulate climatically relevant data. This study also suggests that initial errors in ocean temperature of a few millikelvins, encompassing both the upper and deep ocean, can lead to ~0.1-K errors in the predictions of North Atlantic sea surface temperature on interannual time scales. This transient error growth peaks for SST and OHC after about 6 and 10 years, respectively, implying a potential predictability barrier.

scholarly journals Disentangling the effect of ocean temperatures and isotopic content on the oxygen – isotope signals in the North Atlantic Ocean during Heinrich Event 1 using a global climate model

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianne Bügelmayer-Blaschek ◽  
Didier M. Roche ◽  
Hans Renssen ◽  
Claire Waelbroeck
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Isotopic Composition ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Heinrich Event ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Heinrich events are intriguing episodes of enhanced iceberg discharge occurring during the last glacial period and are characterized by a steep increase in ice rafted debris (IRD) found in North Atlantic cores. Yet, their signal is not directly recognizable in the carbonate oxygen isotopic composition recorded in planktonic foraminifera, which depends on both the prevailing temperature and isotopic composition of seawater. Using the global isotope-enabled climate – iceberg model iLOVECLIM we performed three experiments to shed light on first, the impact of the duration of a Heinrich event-like iceberg forcing on the North Atlantic Ocean and second, the mechanisms behind the simulated δ18Ocalcite pattern. We applied an iceberg forcing of 0.2 Sv for 300, 600 and 900 years, respectively, and find a strong and non-linear response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to the duration of the Heinrich event in iLOVECLIM. Moreover, our results show that the timing of the first response to the iceberg forcing coincides between all the experiments in the various regions and happens within 300 years. Furthermore, the experiments display two main patterns in the δ18Ocalcite signal. On the one hand, the central and northeast North Atlantic regions display almost no response in δ18Ocalcite to the applied iceberg forcing since the changes in sea surface temperature and δ18Oseawater compensate each other or, if the forcing is applied long enough, a delayed response is seen. On the other hand, we show that in Baffin Bay, the Nordic Seas and the subtropical North Atlantic the change in δ18Oseawater exceeds the sea surface temperature signal and there the δ18Ocalcite pattern closely follows the δ18Oseawater signal and displays a continuous decrease over the length of the Heinrich event with the minimum value at the end of the iceberg release. The comparison of the model experiments with four marine sediment cores indicates that the experiment with an iceberg forcing of 0.2 Sv for 300 years yields the most reasonable results.

Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: implications for future climate

2008 ◽  
Vol 367 (1886) ◽  
pp. 69-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry J Dowsett ◽  
Mark A Chandler ◽  
Marci M Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
First Century ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO 2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

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