scholarly journals Characterization of interannual and seasonal variability of hydro-climatic trends in the Upper Indus Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Usman Liaqat ◽  
Giovanna Grossi ◽  
Shabeh ul Hasson ◽  
Roberto Ranzi
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variability ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Climatic Trends

scholarly journals Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 579-653 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hasson ◽  
J. Böhner ◽  
V. Lucarini
Keyword(s):  
High Altitude ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Climatic Trend ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Climatic Trends ◽  
Mixed Response ◽  
Long Term Trends

Abstract. Largely depending on meltwater from the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus basin (UIB) contribute to half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, we present a comprehensive hydro-climatic trend analysis over the UIB, including for the first time observations from high-altitude automated weather stations. We analyze trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures (Tx, Tn, and Tavg, respectively), diurnal temperature range (DTR) and precipitation from 18 stations (1250–4500 m a.s.l.) for their overlapping period of record (1995–2012), and separately, from six stations of their long term record (1961–2012). We apply Mann–Kendall test on serially independent time series to assess existence of a trend while true slope is estimated using Sen's slope method. Further, we statistically assess the spatial scale (field) significance of local climatic trends within ten identified sub-regions of UIB and analyze whether the spatially significant (field significant) climatic trends qualitatively agree with a trend in discharge out of corresponding sub-region. Over the recent period (1995–2012), we find a well agreed and mostly field significant cooling (warming) during monsoon season i.e. July–October (March–May and November), which is higher in magnitude relative to long term trends (1961–2012). We also find general cooling in Tx and a mixed response in Tavg during the winter season and a year round decrease in DTR, which are in direct contrast to their long term trends. The observed decrease in DTR is stronger and more significant at high altitude stations (above 2200 m a.s.l.), and mostly due to higher cooling in Tx than in Tn. Moreover, we find a field significant decrease (increase) in late-monsoonal precipitation for lower (higher) latitudinal regions of Himalayas (Karakoram and Hindukush), whereas an increase in winter precipitation for Hindukush, western- and whole Karakoram, UIB-Central, UIB-West, UIB-West-upper and whole UIB regions. We find a spring warming (field significant in March) and drying (except for Karakoram and its sub-regions), and subsequent rise in early-melt season flows. Such early melt response together with effective cooling during monsoon period subsequently resulted in a substantial drop (weaker increase) in discharge out of higher (lower) latitudinal regions (Himalaya and UIB-West-lower) during late-melt season, particularly during July. These discharge tendencies qualitatively differ to their long term trends for all regions, except for UIB-West-upper, western-Karakorum and Astore. The observed hydroclimatic trends, being driven by certain changes in the monsoonal system and westerly disturbances, indicate dominance (suppression) of nival (glacial) runoff regime, altering substantially the overall hydrology of UIB in future. These findings largely contribute to address the hydroclimatic explanation of the "Karakoram Anomaly".

scholarly journals Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus Basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 337-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shabeh Hasson ◽  
Jürgen Böhner ◽  
Valerio Lucarini
Keyword(s):  
Water Availability ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Climatic Trends ◽  
Domestic Use ◽  
Long Term Trends

Abstract. Largely depending on the meltwater from the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus Basin (UIB) contribute half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use, and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, this study assesses the trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures, diurnal temperature range and precipitation from 18 stations (1250–4500 m a.s.l.) for their overlapping period of record (1995–2012) and, separately, from six stations of their long-term record (1961–2012). For this, a Mann–Kendall test on serially independent time series is applied to detect the existence of a trend, while its true slope is estimated using the Sen's slope method. Further, locally identified climatic trends are statistically assessed for their spatial-scale significance within 10 identified subregions of the UIB, and the spatially (field-) significant climatic trends are then qualitatively compared with the trends in discharge out of corresponding subregions. Over the recent period (1995–2012), we find warming and drying of spring (field-significant in March) and increasing early melt season discharge from most of the subregions, likely due to a rapid snowmelt. In stark contrast, most of the subregions feature a field-significant cooling within the monsoon period (particularly in July and September), which coincides well with the main glacier melt season. Hence, a decreasing or weakly increasing discharge is observed from the corresponding subregions during mid- to late melt season (particularly in July). Such tendencies, being largely consistent with the long-term trends (1961–2012), most likely indicate dominance of the nival but suppression of the glacial melt regime, altering overall hydrology of the UIB in future. These findings, though constrained by sparse and short observations, largely contribute in understanding the UIB melt runoff dynamics and address the hydroclimatic explanation of the Karakoram Anomaly.

Mechanical and Elastic Characterization of Shale Gas Play in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Perveiz Khalid ◽  
Muhammad Irfan Ehsan ◽  
Mohamed Metwaly ◽  
Shahzada Khurram
Keyword(s):  
Shale Gas ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

scholarly journals Characterization of Interannual and Seasonal Variability of Hydro-Climatic Trends in the Upper Indus Basin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Usman Liaqat ◽  
Roberto Ranzi ◽  
Giovanna Grossi ◽  
Talha Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Climatic Trends ◽  
Basin Scale

<p>A major part of Pakistan’s economy is dependent upon agriculture which is irrigated from the water resources of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Therefore the human impact of hydroclimatic variability in this area is of paramount importance. The Upper Indus Basin is characterized by uncertain hydro-climatic behaviour with changing patterns in different sub-basins. Many studies have worked on hydro-climatic trends at basin scale but only few studies focused on the hydroclimate, precipitation dynamics and their magnitude at sub-basin level. Based upon this scenario, high resolution seasonal and annual climatology of UIB was developed. It is based on precipitation normals 1995-2017 obtained from four different gridded satellite datasets (Aphrodite, Chirps, PERSIANN-CDR and GPCC) as well as quality- controlled high and mid elevation ground observations (1250–4500 m a.s.l.). The quality-control of the gridded dataset is computed by the anomaly method. In order to, evaluate the data quality of the gridded rainfall, four statistics i.e., BIAS, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are used in this study. Using running trends and spectral analysis with multi-gauge based anomaly, the study analyses the precipitation and runoff   seasonal and annual temporal variability at sub-basin scale. For this, Mann–Kendall test was employed to detect the presence of any trend while their slope is calculated by Theil Sen’s slope method. The nonparametric Pettitt Test was also used in this study to eventually identify the change point in hydro-climatic time series. The results indicated that bias corrected CHIRPS precipitation datasets performed better in simulating precipitation with RMSE, MAE, MAPE [%] and BIAS followed by APHRODITE. The annual and seasonal precipitation climatology exhibited higher precipitation in the lower side of the basin. The comparison between short and long duration climatologies is being investigated as well. The annual running trend analysis of precipitation exhibited a very slight change whereas a more significant increase was found in the winter season (DJF) and most of sub-basins feature a significant decreasing rate in precipitation and constant change point within the monsoon period (JJA). Similarly, trend analysis for runoff in main rivers of Upper Indus Basin at Gilgat, Indus (Besham Qila, Bunji) exhibit nonsignificant increase except Hunza and Indus at Kharmong which are showed decrease annual trends and will be further investigated for seasonal patterns. Overall, these findings would assist to better understand precipitation, snow- and ice-melt runoff dynamics, addressing the hydroclimatic behaviour of the Karakoram region.</p>

Rainfall forecasting in upper Indus basin using various artificial intelligence techniques

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Hammad ◽  
Muhammad Shoaib ◽  
Hamza Salahudin ◽  
Muhammad Azhar Inam Baig ◽  
Mudasser Muneer Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Artificial Intelligence Techniques ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

Hydrograph apportionment of the Chandra River draining from a semi-arid region of the Upper Indus Basin, western Himalaya

2021 ◽  
Vol 780 ◽  
pp. 146500
Author(s):  
Ajit T. Singh ◽  
C.M. Laluraj ◽  
Parmanand Sharma ◽  
B.L. Redkar ◽  
Lavkush Kumar Patel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Arid Region ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Semi Arid Region ◽  
Semi Arid

Quanitification of sustainable hydropower potential in the Upper Indus basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanita Dhaubanjar ◽  
Arthur F. Lutz ◽  
David Gernaat ◽  
Santosh Nepal ◽  
Saurav Pradhananga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indus Basin ◽  
Hydropower Development ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Economic Preferences ◽  
Context Specific ◽  
Diverse Context

<p>Considering the lack of a comprehensive assessement of hydropower potential in the Upper Indus basin, we developed and implemented a systematic framework to explore four different classes of hydropower potential. Our framework uses high-resolution discharge generated by a coupled cryosphere-hydrology model as the bio-physical boundary conditions to estimate theoretical potential. Thereafter, diverse context-specific constraints are implemented stepwise to estimate the technical, economic and sustainable hydropower potential. The successive classes of hydropower potential integrate considerations for various water demands under the water-energy-food nexus, multiple geo-hazard risks, climate change, environmental protection, and socio-economic preferences. We demonstrate that the nearly two thousand Terawatt-hour of theoretical potential available annualy in the upper Indus can be misleading because a majority of this is technically and economically not viable. Even smaller potential remains if we account for the various sustainability constraints that vary spatially. Our concept of the sustainable hydropower potential enables decision makers to look beyond the energy sector when selecting hydropower projects for development to achieveenergy security under the Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7).The generated portfolio of sustainable hydropower projects is superior to the current portfolio based on outdated studies because our method looks beyond theoretical possibilities and excludes projects that conflict with management objectives under other SDGs. The spatial maps with potential and the cost curves for hydropower production provide a science-based knowledge base for hydropower development in the Indus basin. Our method could similarly be adapted to inform hydropower development in other basins across the globe.</p>

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