Predicting the maximum sunspot number and the associated geomagnetic activity indices $aa$ and $Ap$ for solar cycle 25

2021 ◽  
Vol 366 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
P. R. Singh ◽  
A. I. Saad Farid ◽  
A. K. Singh ◽  
T. K. Pant ◽  
Ayman A. Aly
2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 367-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Lockwood ◽  
H. Nevanlinna ◽  
M. Vokhmyanin ◽  
D. Ponyavin ◽  
S. Sokolov ◽  
...  

Abstract. Svalgaard (2014) has recently pointed out that the calibration of the Helsinki magnetic observatory's H component variometer was probably in error in published data for the years 1866–1874.5 and that this makes the interdiurnal variation index based on daily means, IDV(1d), (Lockwood et al., 2013a), and the interplanetary magnetic field strength derived from it (Lockwood et al., 2013b), too low around the peak of solar cycle 11. We use data from the modern Nurmijarvi station, relatively close to the site of the original Helsinki Observatory, to confirm a 30% underestimation in this interval and hence our results are fully consistent with the correction derived by Svalgaard. We show that the best method for recalibration uses the Helsinki Ak (H) and aa indices and is accurate to ±10%. This makes it preferable to recalibration using either the sunspot number or the diurnal range of geomagnetic activity which we find to be accurate to ±20%. In the case of Helsinki data during cycle 11, the two recalibration methods produce very similar corrections which are here confirmed using newly digitised data from the nearby St Petersburg observatory and also using declination data from Helsinki. However, we show that the IDV index is, compared to later years, too similar to sunspot number before 1872, revealing independence of the two data series has been lost; either because the geomagnetic data used to compile IDV has been corrected using sunspot numbers, or vice versa, or both. We present corrected data sequences for both the IDV(1d) index and the reconstructed IMF (interplanetary magnetic field). We also analyse the relationship between the derived near-Earth IMF and the sunspot number and point out the relevance of the prior history of solar activity, in addition to the contemporaneous value, to estimating any "floor" value of the near-Earth interplanetary field.


Author(s):  
Pandey A.C. ◽  
◽  
Sham Singh ◽  
Dinesh Kumar Pathak ◽  
Archana Shukla ◽  
...  

Yearly averages of geomagnetic activity indices Kp and Ap for the years 1984 to 2018 be compared to the relevant averages of VxBs, where V is the solar wind velocity and Bs is the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component. The correlation of both quantities is known to be rather good. Comparing the averages of Ap and Kp with V and Bs separately. We found that, during the declining phase of solar cycle, V and during the ascending phase Bs have more influence on Ap and Kp indices. According to this observation the 27 days and semiannual, Ap and Kp variations be analysed discretely for years after and before sunspot minima. The time intervals prior to sunspot minima with a significant 27-day recurrent period of the IMF structure and those intervals after sunspot minima with a significant 28 to28.5 day recurrent phase of the structure be used. The averaged spectra of the two Ap and Kp data sets obviously show a period of 27 days before and a period of 28 to 29 days after sunspot minimum.


2006 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 227-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.S. Kim ◽  
Y. Yi ◽  
K.S. Cho ◽  
Y.J. Moon ◽  
S.W. Kim

2009 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nipa J. Bhatt ◽  
Rajmal Jain ◽  
Malini Aggarwal

Author(s):  
Piero Diego ◽  
Monica Laurenza

The prediction of solar activity is one of the most challenging topics among the various Space    Weather and Space Climate issues. In the last decades, the constant enhancement of Space Climate    data allowed to improve the comprehension of the related physical phenomena and the statistical    bases for prediction algorithms. For this purpose, we used geomagnetic indices to provide a pow erful algorithm (see Diego et al 2010) for the solar activity prediction, based on the evaluation of    the recurrence rate in the geomagnetic activity. The aim of this paper is to present the validation    of our algorithm over solar cycle n. 24, for which a successful prediction was made, and upgrade    it to forecast the shape and time as well as the amplitude of the upcoming cycle n. 25. Contrary    to the consensus, we predict it to be quite high, with a maximum sunspot number of 205  ±  29,  that should be reached in the first half of 2023. This prediction is consistent with the scenario in    which the long-term Gleissberg cycle has reached its minimum in cycle n. 24 and the rising phase  is beginning.


1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 510-517 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Schreiber

Abstract. Yearly averages of geomagnetic activity indices Ap for the years 1967–1984 are compared to the respective averages of ν2·Bs, where v is the solar wind velocity and Bs is the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component. The correlation of both quantities is known to be rather good. Comparing the averages of Ap with ν2 and Bs separately we find that, during the declining phase of the solar cycle, ν2 and during the ascending phase Bs have more influence on Ap. According to this observation (using Fourier spectral analysis) the semiannual and 27 days, Ap variations for the years 1932–1993 were analysed separately for years before and after sunspot minima. Only those time-intervals before sunspot minima with a significant 27-day recurrent period of the IMF sector structure and those intervals after sunspot minima with a significant 28-28.5-day recurrent period of the sector structure were used. The averaged spectra of the two Ap data sets clearly show a period of 27 days before and a period of 28–29 days after sunspot minimum. Moreover, the phase of the average semiannual wave of Ap is significantly different for the two groups of data: the Ap variation maximizes near the equinoxes during the declining phase of the sunspot cycle and near the beginning of April and October during the ascending phase of the sunspot cycle, as predicted by the Russell-McPherron (R-M) mechanism. Analysing the daily variation of ap in an analogue manner, the same equinoctial and R-M mechanisms are seen, suggesting that during phases of the solar cycle, when ap depends more on the IMF-Bs component, the R-M mechanism is predominant, whereas during phases when ap increases as v increases the equinoctial mechanism is more likely to be effective.Key words. Interplanetary physics · Magnetic fields · Solar wind plasma · Solar wind · magnetosphere interaction


2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 477-483
Author(s):  
Debojyoti Halder

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun which appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. Sunspot populations usually rise fast but fall more slowly when observed for any particular solar cycle. The sunspot numbers for the current cycle 24 and the previous three cycles have been plotted for duration of first four years for each of them. It appears that the value of peak sunspot number for solar cycle 24 is smaller than the three preceding cycles. When regression analysis is made it exhibits a trend of slow rising phase of the cycle 24 compared to previous three cycles. Our analysis further shows that cycle 24 is approaching to a longer-period but with smaller occurrences of sunspot number.


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