Forecasting Solar Cycle 24 using the relationship between cycle length and maximum sunspot number

In this study, we report a statistical study for the relationship between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and sunspot number (SSN) that were registered during the period 2008-2017 for the solar cycle 24. SSN was extracted from Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO), while CMEs number from observations made by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission (SOHO). The present period was adopted to conduct the investigation and obtain the mutual correlation between SSN and CMEs. The relationship between CME, the speed of halo CME, and partial halo CMEs for solar cycle 24 were studied. The analysis of results indicated that the average speed of halo CMEs is almost faster than the average speed of partial halo CMEs.Test results of the annual correlation between SSN and CMEs are simple and can be represented by a linear regression equation. Finally, Gaussian fit as a function of time was performed to compare behavior of numbers the CME and SSN with the years and the results show that the center of the peaks agrees with 2014.

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Regression Analysis of Sunspot Numbers for the Solar Cycle 24 in Comparison to Previous Three Cycles

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN PHYSICS ◽

10.24297/jap.v4i2.2030 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 477-483

Author(s):

Debojyoti Halder

Keyword(s):

Regression Analysis ◽

Solar Cycle ◽

Sunspot Number ◽

The Sun ◽

Sunspot Numbers ◽

Solar Cycle 24 ◽

Current Cycle ◽

Cycle 24

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun which appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. Sunspot populations usually rise fast but fall more slowly when observed for any particular solar cycle. The sunspot numbers for the current cycle 24 and the previous three cycles have been plotted for duration of first four years for each of them. It appears that the value of peak sunspot number for solar cycle 24 is smaller than the three preceding cycles. When regression analysis is made it exhibits a trend of slow rising phase of the cycle 24 compared to previous three cycles. Our analysis further shows that cycle 24 is approaching to a longer-period but with smaller occurrences of sunspot number.

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The Impact of Sunspots Number on Critical Frequencies foF2 for the IONOSPHERIC Layer-F2 Over Erbil Station During the Down Phase of Solar Cycle 24

NeuroQuantology ◽

10.14704/nq.2021.19.8.nq21128 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 19 (8) ◽

pp. 157-168

Author(s):

Wafaa H.A. Zaki

Keyword(s):

Solar Activity ◽

Solar Cycle ◽

Sunspot Number ◽

Critical Frequency ◽

Radio Communication ◽

Ionospheric Layer ◽

Solar Cycle 24 ◽

Critical Frequency Fof2 ◽

Cycle 24 ◽

The Impact

The ionosphere layer (F2) is known as the most important layer for High frequency (Hf) radio communication because it is a permanent layer and excited during the day and night so it is able to reflect the frequencies at night and day due to its high critical frequency, and this layer is affected by daily and monthly solar activity. In this study the characteristics and behavior of F2 layer during Solar cycle 24 were studied, the effect of Sunspots number (Ri) on the critical frequency (foF2), were investigated for the years (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020) which represents the down phase of the solar cycle 24 over Erbil station (36° N, 44° E) by finding the critical frequency (foF2) values, the layer’ s impression times are determined for the days of solstice as well as equinox, where the solar activity was examined for the days of the winter and summer solstice and the days of the spring and autumn equinoxes for a period of 24 hours by applied the International Reference Ionosphere model IRI (2016). The output data for foF2 were verified by using the IRI-Ne- Quick option by specifying the time, date and Sunspot number parameters. Statistical analysis was caried out through the application of the Minitab (version 2018) in order to find the correlation between the critical frequency (foF2) of Ionospheric layer F2 and Sunspot number. It was concluded that the correlation is strong and positive, this indicate that critical frequency (foF2) increase with increasing Sunspots number (Ri) for solar cycle 24.

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Coronal mass ejections and sunspot number over solar cycle 24

International Journal of Innovative Research and Growth ◽

10.26671/ijirg.2021.6.10.101 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

Author(s):

Preetam Singh Gour ◽

Shiva Anon ◽

Devangana Shyamlan Chaturvedi

Keyword(s):

Solar Cycle ◽

Sunspot Number ◽

Coronal Mass Ejections ◽

Solar Cycle 24 ◽

Cycle 24

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Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate

Annales Geophysicae ◽

10.5194/angeo-28-1463-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 28 (7) ◽

pp. 1463-1466 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

R. P. Kane

Keyword(s):

Solar Cycle ◽

Sunspot Cycle ◽

Preliminary Estimate ◽

Precursor Method ◽

Solar Cycle 24 ◽

False Signal ◽

Final Estimate ◽

Cycle 24 ◽

Maximum Sunspot ◽

Aa Index

Abstract. In Ohl's Precursor Method (Ohl, 1966, 1976), the geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is shown to be well correlated with the size (maximum sunspot number Rz(max)) of the next cycle. For solar cycle 24, Kane (2007a) used aa(min)=15.5 (12-month running mean), which occurred during March–May of 2006 and made a preliminary estimate Rz(max)=124±26 (12-month running mean). However, in the next few months, the aa index first increased and then decreased to a new low value of 14.8 in July 2007. With this new low value, the prediction was Rz(max)=117±26 (12-month running mean). However, even this proved a false signal. Since then, the aa values have decreased considerably and the last 12-monthly value is 8.7, centered at May 2009. For solar cycle 24, using aa(min)=8.7, the latest prediction is, Rz(max)=58.0±25.0.

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Study the correlation between Sunspot Number and Solar Flux during Solar Cycle 24.

Iraqi Journal of Physics (IJP) ◽

10.30723/ijp.v17i42.423 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 17 (42) ◽

pp. 56-64

Author(s):

Zeinab F Hussien

Keyword(s):

Solar Cycle ◽

Sunspot Number ◽

Correlation Equation ◽

Solar Flux ◽

Test Results ◽

Linear Regression Equation ◽

Mutual Correlation ◽

Solar Cycle 24 ◽

Cycle 24 ◽

Annual Time

Abstract In this research, a study of the behavior and correlation between sunspot number (SSN) and solar flux (F10.7) have been suggested. The annual time of the years (2008-2017) of solar cycle 24 has been adopted to make the investigation in order to get the mutual correlation between (SSN) and (F10.7). The test results of the annual correlation between SSN & F10.7 is simple and can be represented by a linear regression equation. The results of the conducted study showed that there was a good fit between SSN and F10.7 values that have been generated using the suggested mutual correlation equation and the observed data.

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