Long-term evolution of coronal holes on the Sun and occurrence frequencies of magnetic storms with gradual commencements

Long-term evolution of areas with open configuration of magnetic field (coronal holes) on the Sun reconstructed on the basis of H-alpha synoptic charts for the period 1887-2016 was studied and compared with annual occurrence frequencies of magnetic storms with gradual (GC) commencements. It was found that correlation between yearly values of coronal hole (CH) areas and sunspot numbers with no time shift is negative and not strong, but increases up to ∼0.6-0.7 when CH areas are delayed by 4-5 years relative to sunspot numbers. Temporal variations of CH areas in the Northern and Southern hemispheres are characterized by dominant ∼11-year periodicities; however, they differ significantly on the multidecadal time scale. The wavelet spectra of CH areas in the Southern hemisphere, unlike those in the Northern one, reveal persistent periodicities of ∼30-35 years on the studied time interval. Similar periodicities of ∼30-35 years are observed in annual occurrences of GC magnetic storms which are caused by high-speed streams of solar wind from coronal holes. The results of cross wavelet analysis of annual occurrence frequencies of GC magnetic storms and areas of coronal holes revealed common periodicities ∼11, ∼35 and ∼60 years which confirmed a close link of these storms with the evolution of large-scale magnetic fields on the Sun.

Genetic Algorithm Based Improved ESTAR Nonlinear Models for Modelling Sunspot Numbers and Global Temperatures

Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models are employed to describe cyclical data. As estimation of parameters of STAR using nonlinear methods was time-consuming, Genetic algorithm (GA), a powerful optimization procedure was applied for the same. Further, optimal one step and two step ahead forecasts along with their forecast error variances are derived theoretically for fitted STAR model using conditional expectations. Given the importance of the issue of global warming, the current paper aims to model the sunspot numbers and global mean temperatures. Further, appropriate tests are carried out to see if the model employed is appropriate for the datasets.

Wavelet and cross correlation analysis on some climatology parameters of Nepal

This study has been performed to understand the relationship between sunspot numbers (SSN) with climatology related parameters like temperature and rainfall from 1901 to 2016. The spectral characteristics of sunspot numbers, temperature and rainfall have been observed using continuous wavelet transform. Cross-correlation analyses were also performed to find any relation among temperature, rainfall, and sunspot numbers. The 9–11 year periodicity of sunspot numbers confirmed by wavelet transform in annual scale. The periodicity of high-frequency signals is identified between 4 to 11 years whereas the low frequencies signal is found throughout the periods of observation for temperature. Similarly, it is clear that there is more concentration of power between 8–16 years for rainfall. Cross-correlation analysis shows that the sunspot numbers is highly correlated with rainfall and temperature (correlation coefficient ~ 0.8054). The time lag relationship resulted in the almost simultaneous linear relationship between the temperature, rainfall, and the SSN tendency. The development of convective motions over the subtropics might be affected by the time rate of change of SSN combined with the surface temperature changes of diverse time scales. The convective motions were mostly controlled by the available amount of water vapor and the stability of the atmosphere that had a strong connection with the heat capacity of the concerned region. To produce more authentic findings for policy implications, further comprehensive and appropriate research can be undertaken and implemented in this very important field. BIBECHANA 18 (2) (2021) 105-115

Holocene Millennial-Scale Solar Variability and the Climatic Responses on Earth

The solar impact on Earth’s climate is both a rich and open-ended topic with intense debates. In this study, we use the reconstructed data available to investigate periodicities of solar variability (i.e., variations of sunspot numbers) and temperature changes (10 sites spread all over the Earth) as well as the statistical inter-relations between them on the millennial scale during the past 8640 years (BC 6755–AD 1885) before the modern industrial era. We find that the variations of the Earth’s temperatures show evidence for the Eddy cycle component, i.e., the 1000-year cyclicity, which was discovered in variations of sunspot numbers and believed to be an intrinsic periodicity of solar variability. Further wavelet time-frequency analysis demonstrates that the co-variation between the millennium cycle components of solar variability and the temperature change held stable and statistically strong for five out of these 10 sites during our study interval. In addition, the Earth’s climatic response to solar forcing could be different region-by-region, and the temperatures in the southern hemisphere seemed to have an opposite changing trend compared to those in the northern hemisphere on this millennial scale. These findings reveal not only a pronounced but also a complex relationship between solar variability and climatic change on Earth on the millennial timescale. More data are needed to further verify these preliminary results in the future.

Comparison of the shape and temporal evolution of even and odd solar cycles

Aims. We study the difference in the shape of solar cycles for even and odd cycles using the Wolf sunspot numbers and group sunspot numbers of solar cycles 1−23. We furthermore analyse the data of sunspot area sizes for even and odd cycles SC12−SC23 and sunspot group data for even and odd cycles SC8−SC23 to compare the temporal evolution of even and odd cycles. Methods. We applied the principal component analysis (PCA) to sunspot cycle data and studied the first two components, which describe the average cycle shape and cycle asymmetry. We used a distribution analysis to analyse the temporal evolution of the even and odd cycles and determined the skewness and kurtosis for even and odd cycles of sunspot group data. Results. The PCA confirms the existence of the Gnevyshev gap (GG) for solar cycles at about 40% from the start of the cycle. The temporal evolution of sunspot area data for even cycles shows that the GG exists at least at the 95% confidence level for all sizes of sunspots. On the other hand, the GG is shorter and statistically insignificant for the odd cycles of aerial sunspot data. Furthermore, the analysis of sunspot area sizes for even and odd cycles of SC12−SC23 shows that the greatest difference is at 4.2−4.6 years, where even cycles have a far smaller total area than odd cycles. The average area of the individual sunspots of even cycles is also smaller in this interval. The statistical analysis of the temporal evolution shows that northern sunspot groups maximise earlier than southern groups for even cycles, but are concurrent for odd cycles. Furthermore, the temporal distributions of odd cycles are slightly more leptokurtic than distributions of even cycles. The skewnesses are 0.37 and 0.49 and the kurtoses 2.79 and 2.94 for even and odd cycles, respectively. The correlation coefficient between skewness and kurtosis for even cycles is 0.69, and for odd cycles, it is 0.90. Conclusions. The separate PCAs for even and odd sunspot cycles show that odd cycles are more inhomogeneous than even cycles, especially in GSN data. Even cycles, however, have two anomalous cycles: SC4 and SC6. The variation in the shape of the early sunspot cycles suggests that there are too few and/or inaccurate measurements before SC8. According to the analysis of the sunspot area size data, the GG is more distinct in even than odd cycles. This may be partly due to sunspot groups maximizing earlier in the northern than in the southern hemisphere for even cycles. We also present another Waldmeier-type rule, that is, we find a correlation between skewness and kurtosis of the sunspot group cycles.