Analysis of pre-monsoon thunderstorm frequency over Srlniketan, Alipore and Kalaikunda -The possible association with solar activity

ABSTRACT -General characteristic features of thunderstorm frequency (TSF) observed during (1951-89) during pre-monsoon season at Sriniketan (23°39'N, 87"42'E), Alipore (22° 32'N, 88"20'E) and Kalaikunda (21°20'N, 87" 13'E) have been studied. It is seen that premonsoon TSF follows a rough periodicity 0f 6.6) year. For Kalaikunda (KLK) there is an overal1 upward trend and for Sriniketan (SKT) an overall downward trend; whereas, for Alipore (ALP) the trend pattern remains practically constant. The maximum TSF attained by all these three stations is nearly twice that of mean TSF of respective stations. The solar influence on the frequency of thunderstorm (TS) has been investigated and found to be interesting. TSF over SKT and KLK attained minimum value while that over ALP was near minimum during 1957; which in turn was the year of maximum sunspot (SS) number over the entire period of analysis. Now in general, if we take SS number and TSF of same year and calculate correlation coefficient (CC) considering all the years. i.e., taking SS without any restriction, the CC comes out to be quite small. But the result is just the reverse when the TSF value of those years is considered when SS number is higher. In particular when SS number exceeds some critical value (~140), TSF decreases sharply. The effect of solar sub-cycle, 11-yearcycle and 22-yearcycle un TS has also been discussed. It is seen that during min-max sub-phases, mean TSF is comparatively higher than its value in neighbouring max-min sub-phases and also it is in opposite phase in relation with mean SS. During 11-yearcycle also in most of the cases an opposite phase relationship exists between mean TSF and mean SS.

Geomagnetic activity recurrences for predicting the amplitude and shape of solar cycle N. 25

The prediction of solar activity is one of the most challenging topics among the various Space Weather and Space Climate issues. In the last decades, the constant enhancement of Space Climate data allowed to improve the comprehension of the related physical phenomena and the statistical bases for prediction algorithms. For this purpose, we used geomagnetic indices to provide a pow erful algorithm (see Diego et al 2010) for the solar activity prediction, based on the evaluation of the recurrence rate in the geomagnetic activity. The aim of this paper is to present the validation of our algorithm over solar cycle n. 24, for which a successful prediction was made, and upgrade it to forecast the shape and time as well as the amplitude of the upcoming cycle n. 25. Contrary to the consensus, we predict it to be quite high, with a maximum sunspot number of 205 ± 29, that should be reached in the first half of 2023. This prediction is consistent with the scenario in which the long-term Gleissberg cycle has reached its minimum in cycle n. 24 and the rising phase is beginning.

Vaccine, Emergence, Termination, Sunspot Number as ON-OFF Switch for COVID-19 Pandemic with 25 Worst-Hit Countries

COVID-19 vaccine sample at Arctic Ocean and Antarctic Peninsula, plasmas from recovered people and CMV infected cetaceans, and modified MMR vaccines with the cetacean host. The present study proposes that the11-year cyclic sunspot number is analogous to a SWITCH, turning on and off an epidemic, inducing a public-health crisis. The ON period by the minimum (maximum) sunspot number initiated mutant viruses (AIV, SARS, MERS-CoV, and COVID-19) to transmit from the Poles to Continents by migratory birds and humpback whales. The first COVID-19 arrival dates in China, USA, Japan, Mexico, and Hawaii, determined by the distance between feeding grounds and breeding areas of humpback whale habitats. The OFF period occurs during the high sunspot number (>25-50) and may terminate COVID-19 in September (optimistic prediction) or in November, 2020 (pessimistic prediction) with three cases. Leather tanning industry (R2 = 0.8514), global coastline (R2 = 0.7864), USA coastline (R2 = 0.3099) , USA refinery (R2 = 0.4874),CO2 emissions (R2 = 0.7627), population (R2 = 0.3748), and minimum sunspot number (R2 = 0.8907) showed high linearity with COVID-19 pandemic, as major causes in the 25worst-hit countries. COVID-19 can globally decrease by reducing toxic chemicals during the leather industry.

Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate

In Ohl's Precursor Method (Ohl, 1966, 1976), the geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is shown to be well correlated with the size (maximum sunspot number Rz(max)) of the next cycle. For solar cycle 24, Kane (2007a) used aa(min)=15.5 (12-month running mean), which occurred during March–May of 2006 and made a preliminary estimate Rz(max)=124±26 (12-month running mean). However, in the next few months, the aa index first increased and then decreased to a new low value of 14.8 in July 2007. With this new low value, the prediction was Rz(max)=117±26 (12-month running mean). However, even this proved a false signal. Since then, the aa values have decreased considerably and the last 12-monthly value is 8.7, centered at May 2009. For solar cycle 24, using aa(min)=8.7, the latest prediction is, Rz(max)=58.0±25.0.