Development of a probabilistic earthquake loss model for Iran

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1795-1823 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hooman Motamed ◽  
Alejandro Calderon ◽  
Vitor Silva ◽  
Catarina Costa
Keyword(s):  
2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1279-1299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Field ◽  
Keith Porter ◽  
Kevin Milner

We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.


2005 ◽  
Vol 34 (14) ◽  
pp. 1653-1685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Crowley ◽  
Julian J. Bommer ◽  
Rui Pinho ◽  
Juliet Bird

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 2383-2406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erfan Firuzi ◽  
Anooshiravan Ansari ◽  
Kambod Amini Hosseini ◽  
Mina Rashidabadi

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110438
Author(s):  
Alejandro Calderón ◽  
Vitor Silva ◽  
Matilde Avilés ◽  
Rosalín Méndez ◽  
Rolando Castillo ◽  
...  

This study presents a probabilistic earthquake loss model for Central America, which is used to evaluate the indicators of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The exposure, vulnerability, and hazard components of the model were established using a uniform methodology for all the countries. Earthquake risk is expressed according to three indicators: mortality (A-1), population affected (B-1), and economic losses (C-1). Exposure results indicate that over 9.1 million structures (with an economic value of US$635 billion) are exposed to seismic hazard in the region. The risk results indicate an average annual human loss of 0.7 fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants, an average number of 35 people affected per 100,000 inhabitants, and an average annual economic loss of US$990 million. This represents 0.43% and 0.16% of the regional gross domestic product (GDP) and total replacement value, respectively. Guatemala, Nicaragua, and El Salvador present the highest risk, contributing with 75% of the absolute economic losses and 84% of the average annual fatalities in the region.


Author(s):  
Yixin Zhang ◽  
Shansuo Zheng ◽  
Longfei Sun ◽  
Li Long ◽  
Wei Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  

2019 ◽  
Vol E102.B (8) ◽  
pp. 1676-1688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitsuki NAKAMURA ◽  
Motoharu SASAKI ◽  
Wataru YAMADA ◽  
Naoki KITA ◽  
Takeshi ONIZAWA ◽  
...  

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charaf Ech-Chatbi
Keyword(s):  

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