scholarly journals Seismic hazard for the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Part 2: broadband scenarios at the Fier Compressor Station (Albania)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Moratto ◽  
A. Vuan ◽  
A. Saraò ◽  
D. Slejko ◽  
C. Papazachos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Transfer Functions ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Compressor Station ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Worst Case

AbstractTo ensure environmental and public safety, critical facilities require rigorous seismic hazard analysis to define seismic input for their design. We consider the case of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which is a pipeline that transports natural gas from the Caspian Sea to southern Italy, crossing active faults and areas characterized by high seismicity levels. For this pipeline, we develop a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for the broader area, and, for the selected critical sites, we perform deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA), by calculating shaking scenarios that account for the physics of the source, propagation, and site effects. This paper presents a DSHA for a compressor station located at Fier, along the Albanian coastal region. Considering the location of the most hazardous faults in the study site, revealed by the PSHA disaggregation, we model the ground motion for two different scenarios to simulate the worst-case scenario for this compressor station. We compute broadband waveforms for receivers on soft soils by applying specific transfer functions estimated from the available geotechnical data for the Fier area. The simulations reproduce the variability observed in the ground motion recorded in the near-earthquake source. The vertical ground motion is strong for receivers placed above the rupture areas and should not be ignored in seismic designs; furthermore, our vertical simulations reproduce the displacement and the static offset of the ground motion highlighted in recent studies. This observation confirms the importance of the DSHA analysis in defining the expected pipeline damage functions and permanent soil deformations.

From Ergodic to Region- and Site-Specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Method Development and Application at European and Middle Eastern Sites

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1433-1453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sreeram Reddy Kotha ◽  
Dino Bindi ◽  
Fabrice Cotton
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Method Development ◽  
Site Response ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Aleatory Variability

The increasing numbers of recordings at individual sites allows quantification of empirical linear site-response adjustment factors ( δS2 S s) from the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) residuals. The δS2 S s are then used to linearly scale the ergodic GMPE predictions to obtain site-specific ground motion predictions in a partially non-ergodic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). To address key statistical and conceptual issues in the current practice, we introduce a novel empirical region- and site-specific PSHA methodology wherein, (1) site-to-site variability ( φ S2 S) is first estimated as a random-variance in a mixed-effects GMPE regression, (2) δS2 S s at new sites with strong motion are estimated using the a priori φ S2 S, and (3) the GMPE site-specific single-site aleatory variability σ ss,s is replaced with a generic site-corrected aleatory variability σ0. Comparison of region- and site-specific hazard curves from our method against the traditional ergodic estimates at 225 sites in Europe and Middle East shows an approximate 50% difference in predicted ground motions over a range of hazard levels—a strong motivation to increase seismological monitoring of critical facilities and enrich regional ground motion data sets.

scholarly journals Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 451-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elise Delavaud ◽  
Fabrice Cotton ◽  
Sinan Akkar ◽  
Frank Scherbaum ◽  
Laurentiu Danciu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, considering empirically estimated site effects

2015 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahid Ullah ◽  
Dino Bindi ◽  
Marco Pilz ◽  
Stefano Parolai
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Site Effects ◽  
Response Spectrum ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Geological Structure ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Site Classification ◽  
Ground Acceleration

<p>It is well known that variability in the surface geology potentially leads to the modification of earthquake-induced ground motion over short distances. Although this effect is of major importance when seismic hazard is assessed at the urban level, it is very often not appropriately accounted for. In this paper, we present a first attempt at taking into account the influence of the shallow geological structure on the seismic hazard assessment for Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, using a proxy (Vs30) that has been estimated from in situ seismic noise array analyses, and considering response spectral ratios calculated by analyzing a series of earthquake recordings of a temporary seismic network. To highlight the spatial variability of the observed ground motion, the obtained results are compared with those estimated assuming a homogeneous Vs30 value over the whole urban area. The seismic hazard is evaluated in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at different periods (frequencies). The presented results consider the values obtained for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest SA estimated considering a rock site classification of the area (0.43 g) is observed for a period of 0.1 s (10 Hz), while the maximum PGA reaches 0.21 g. When site effects are included through the Vs30 proxy in the seismic hazard calculation, the largest SA, 0.67 g, is obtained for a period of 0.3 s (about 3.3 Hz). In terms of PGA, in this case the largest estimated value reaches 0.31 g in the northern part of the town. When the variability of ground motion is accounted for through response spectrum ratios, the largest SA reaches a value as high as 1.39 g at a period of 0.5 s. In general, considering site effects in the seismic hazard assessment of Bishkek leads to an increase of seismic hazard in the north of the city, which is thus identified as the most hazardous part within the study area and which is more far away from the faults.</p>

Physics-based constraints for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Húsavík–Flatey fault zone, Northern Iceland

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Li ◽  
Alice-Agnes Gabriel ◽  
Sara A. Wirp ◽  
Thomas Chartier ◽  
Thomas Ulrich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Fault Zone ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Complex Fault

&lt;p&gt;Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is widely used to generate national seismic hazard maps, design building codes for earthquake resilient structures, determine earthquake insurance rates, and in general for the management of seismic risk. However, standard PSHA is generally based on empirical, time-independent assumptions that are simplified and not based on earthquake physics. Physics-based numerical models such as dynamic rupture simulations account for the non-linear coupling of source, path and site effects, which can be significant in their respective contributions depending on the generally complex geological environment (e.g., Wollherr et al., 2019), and could potentially complement standard PSHA. In this study we demonstrate the benefits of such an approach by modeling various rupture scenarios in the complex Hu&amp;#769;savi&amp;#769;k&amp;#8211;Flatey fault zone (HFFZ), Northern Iceland. The HFFZ consists of multiple right-lateral strike slip segments distributed across ~100 km. The moment accumulated on the HFF since the last major earthquake in 1872 can result in an earthquake of magnitude 6.8 to 7 (Metzger and Jonsson, 2014) posing a high risk to Hu&amp;#769;savi&amp;#769;k&amp;#8217;s community, flourishing tourism and heavy industry.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We perform high-resolution 3D dynamic rupture simulations using the open-source software SeisSol (www.seissol.org), which can efficiently model spontaneous earthquake rupture across complex fault networks and seismic wave propagation with high order accuracy in space and time. Our models incorporate regional topography, bathymetry, 3D subsurface structure and varying models of the complex fault network while accounting for off-fault damage.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Synthetic ground motions suggest highly heterogenous radiation patterns and intense localization of shaking in the vicinity of geometric complexities, such as fault bends or rupture transition between segments. In our models, the hypocenter location does not affect the plausible moment magnitude of large events. However, changes in rupture directivity affect the spatial distribution of ground motion significantly. &amp;#160;We run hundreds of dynamic rupture scenarios to generate a physics-based dynamic earthquake catalog of mechanically plausible events. Based on this, we identify a possible maximum magnitude earthquake and generate model-based ground motion prediction equations to complement standard empirical ground motion models. In addition, we use the open-source python code SHERIFs (Chartier et al., 2019) to estimate the likelihood of each rupture event, which is mainly constrained by the fault slip rate estimated and fault-to-fault (f2f) rupture scenarios that are determined by the dynamic simulations. Finally, combining the fault seismic rates and the f2f probabilities with dynamic rupture scenarios and the OpenQuake framework allows us to perform physics-based PSHA for the HFFZ, the largest strike-slip fault in Iceland.&lt;/p&gt;

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment in Countries With Low Seismicity

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katerina Demjancukova ◽  
Dana Prochazkova
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazards ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Geological Unit ◽  
Fault Displacement

The region of the Czech Republic is mostly composed of the Bohemian Massif which is considered as a geological unit with low seismic activity. Nevertheless, all critical objects as the nuclear power plants, big dams etc. are built as aseismic structures. The nuclear installations have to satisfy the IAEA safety standards and requirements. One of important phenomena that have to be involved in the PSHA process is the diffuse seismicity. In 2010 International Atomic Energy Agency issued a specific safety guide SSG-9 Seismic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. The key chapters are focused on general recommendations, necessary information and investigations (database), construction of a regional seismotectonic model, evaluation of the ground motion hazard, probabilistic seismic hazards analysis (PSHA), deterministic seismic hazards analysis, potential for fault displacement at the site, design basis ground motion, fault displacement and other hazards, evaluation of seismic hazards for nuclear installations other than NPPs. In the paper a numerical example of seismic hazard assessment will be presented with emphasis on problems and particularities related to PSHA in countries with low seismic activity.

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Canterbury region, New Zealand

2001 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 318-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Stirling ◽  
Jarg Pettinga ◽  
Kelvin Berryman ◽  
Mark Yetton
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Acceleration

We present the main results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Canterbury region recently completed for Environment Canterbury (formerly Canterbury Regional Council). We use the distribution of active faults and the historical record of earthquakes to estimate the levels of earthquake shaking (peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations) that can be expected across the Canterbury region with return periods of 150, 475 and 1000 years. The strongest shaking (e.g. 475 year peak ground accelerations of 0.7g or more) can be expected in the west and north to northwest of the Canterbury region, where the greatest concentrations of known active faults and historical seismicity are located. Site-specific analyses of eight towns and cities selected by Environment Canterbury show that Arthur's Pass and Kaikoura are located within these zones of high hazard. In contrast, the centres studied in the Canterbury Plains (Rangiora, Kaiapoi, Christchurch, Ashburton, Temuka and Timaru) are generally located away from the zones of highest hazard. The study represents the first application of recently-developed methods in probabilistic seismic hazard at a regional scale in New Zealand.

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