Valuing climate impacts in integrated assessment models: the MIT IGSM

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) for climate change refers to a broad category of research approaches in climate change. Climate change is the most complicated global environmental problem. By the very nature of climate change, research has to be interdisciplinary and multifaceted. IAM is the mainstream methodological approach in climate change research. Most researchers in climate change utilize IAMs directly or indirectly. IAMs draw knowledge and strengths from various disciplines related to climate change; contributions from each discipline rely on the mathematical representations of certain relationships connected to climate change; disciplinary components are linked through a unified modeling platform(s). In particular, IAMs for climate change usually involve social-economic components as well as natural sciences components. The key linkages in IAM platforms are anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in climate systems and climate change impacts on social-economic systems. The outputs of IAMs are numerical simulation results based on assumptions, historical data, and scenario designs. IAMs are widely used in assessing various GHG mitigation policies and climate impacts. In fact, conclusions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports are drawn substantially from numerous IAMs. IAMs for climate change started in the late 1980s. Since then, IAMs for climate change have developed into a full-fledged interdisciplinary research field that involves hundreds of models, thriving online resources, and thousands of academic publications and policy reports around the world. IAM for climate change, as an interdisciplinary research approach, has received recognition by mainstream disciplines. The Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) and the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)—two IAMs for climate change—are part of the core contributions in William Nordhaus’s Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2018.

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Public Outreach and Interactive Learning with En-ROADS Global Energy and Climate Simulator

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7334 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sibel Eker ◽

Lori Siegel ◽

Charles Jones ◽

John Sterman ◽

Florian Kapmeier ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Carbon Cycle ◽

System Dynamics ◽

Integrated Assessment ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Time Step ◽

Integrated Assessment Models ◽

Carbon Transfer ◽

Outreach And Education

<p>Simple climate models enable not only rapid simulation of a large number of climate scenarios, especially in connection with the integrated assessment models of economy and environment, but also provide chances for outreach and education. En-ROADS, (Energy Rapid Overview and Decision Support)[1], is a publicly available, online policy simulation model designed to complement integrated assessment models for rapid simulation of climate solutions. En-ROADS is a globally aggregated energy-economy-climate model based on a simple climate model, and supports outreach and education about the causes and effects of climate change.&#160; It has an intuitive user interface and runs essentially instantly on ordinary laptops and tablets, providing policymakers, other leaders, educators, and the public with the ability to learn for themselves about the likely consequences of energy and climate policies and uncertainties.</p><p>&#160;</p><p>En-ROADS is a behavioral system dynamics model consisting of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations solved numerically from 1990-2100, with a time step of one-eighth year. En-ROADS extends the C-ROADS model, which has been used extensively by officials and policymakers around the world to inform positions of parties to the UNFCCC[2][3]. In En-ROADS&#8217; climate module, the resulting emissions from the energy system, from forestry and land use, and carbon removal technologies, determine the atmospheric concentrations of each GHG, radiative forcing, and climate impacts including global surface temperature anomaly, heat and carbon transfer between the surface and deep ocean, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. It is calibrated to fit historical data of temperature change and carbon cycle elements, as well as the projections within the RCP-SSP framework. Both En-ROADS and C-ROADS are further developed to account for the details of the terrestrial carbon cycle.</p><p>&#160;</p><p>&#160;</p><p>&#160;</p><p>&#160;</p><div><br><div> <p>[1] https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html.</p> </div> <div> <p>[2] Sterman J, Fiddaman T, Franck TR, Jones A, McCauley S, Rice P, et al. Climate interactive: the C-ROADS climate policy model. System Dynamics Review 2013 <strong>28</strong> (3): 295&#8211;305</p> </div> <div> <p>[3] Sterman JD, Fiddaman T, Franck T, Jones A, McCauley S, Rice P, et al. Management flight simulators to support climate negotiations. Environmental Modelling & Software 2013, <strong>44:</strong> 122-135.</p> </div> </div>

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Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 166 (1-2) ◽

Author(s):

Charlie Wilson ◽

Céline Guivarch ◽

Elmar Kriegler ◽

Bas van Ruijven ◽

Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Integrated Assessment ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Evaluation Method ◽

Evaluation Research ◽

Evaluation Framework ◽

Systematic Evaluation ◽

Integrated Assessment Models ◽

Wide Range ◽

Change Mitigation

AbstractProcess-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.

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Scenarios for greenhouse gas emission mitigation: a review of modeling of strategies and policies in integrated assessment models

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies ◽

10.1007/bf03354041 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 267-289 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Ashish Rana ◽

Tsuneyuki Morita

Keyword(s):

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Integrated Assessment ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Gas Emission ◽

Emission Mitigation ◽

Integrated Assessment Models ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation

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City-scale integrated assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1307/6/33/332008 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 6 (33) ◽

pp. 332008 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Richard Dawson ◽

J Hall ◽

S Barr ◽

M Batty ◽

A Bristow ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Integrated Assessment ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Adaptation And Mitigation

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The Economics of the Climate

Journal of Economic Literature ◽

10.1257/jel.20151335 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 55 (3) ◽

pp. 1046-1063 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Geoffrey Heal

Keyword(s):

Complex Systems ◽

Integrated Assessment ◽

Discount Rates ◽

Risk And Uncertainty ◽

Policy Choices ◽

Integrated Assessment Models ◽

Qualitative Understanding ◽

Climate Problem

I review the economic characteristics of the climate problem, focusing on the choice of discount rates in the presence of a stock externality, risk and uncertainty/ambiguity, and the role of integrated assessment models (IAMs) in analyzing policy choices. I suggest that IAMs can play a role in providing qualitative understanding of how complex systems behave, but are not accurate enough to provide quantitative insights. Arguments in favor of action on climate issues have to be based on aversion to risk and ambiguity and the need to avoid a small but positive risk of a disastrous outcome. ( JEL D61, H43, Q48, Q54, Q58)

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