Public Outreach and Interactive Learning with En-ROADS Global Energy and Climate Simulator

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sibel Eker ◽  
Lori Siegel ◽  
Charles Jones ◽  
John Sterman ◽  
Florian Kapmeier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models ◽  
Carbon Transfer ◽  
Outreach And Education

<p>Simple climate models enable not only rapid simulation of a large number of climate scenarios, especially in connection with the integrated assessment models of economy and environment, but also provide chances for outreach and education. En-ROADS, (Energy Rapid Overview and Decision Support)[1], is a publicly available, online policy simulation model designed to complement integrated assessment models for rapid simulation of climate solutions. En-ROADS is a globally aggregated energy-economy-climate model based on a simple climate model, and supports outreach and education about the causes and effects of climate change.  It has an intuitive user interface and runs essentially instantly on ordinary laptops and tablets, providing policymakers, other leaders, educators, and the public with the ability to learn for themselves about the likely consequences of energy and climate policies and uncertainties.</p><p> </p><p>En-ROADS is a behavioral system dynamics model consisting of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations solved numerically from 1990-2100, with a time step of one-eighth year. En-ROADS extends the C-ROADS model, which has been used extensively by officials and policymakers around the world to inform positions of parties to the UNFCCC[2][3]. In En-ROADS’ climate module, the resulting emissions from the energy system, from forestry and land use, and carbon removal technologies, determine the atmospheric concentrations of each GHG, radiative forcing, and climate impacts including global surface temperature anomaly, heat and carbon transfer between the surface and deep ocean, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. It is calibrated to fit historical data of temperature change and carbon cycle elements, as well as the projections within the RCP-SSP framework. Both En-ROADS and C-ROADS are further developed to account for the details of the terrestrial carbon cycle.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><div><br><div> <p>[1] https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html.</p> </div> <div> <p>[2] Sterman J, Fiddaman T, Franck TR, Jones A, McCauley S, Rice P, et al. Climate interactive: the C-ROADS climate policy model. System Dynamics Review 2013 <strong>28</strong> (3): 295–305</p> </div> <div> <p>[3] Sterman JD, Fiddaman T, Franck T, Jones A, McCauley S, Rice P, et al. Management flight simulators to support climate negotiations. Environmental Modelling & Software 2013, <strong>44:</strong> 122-135.</p> </div> </div>

scholarly journals The cloud–aerosol–radiation (CAR) ensemble modeling system

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 8335-8364 ◽  
Author(s):  
X.-Z. Liang ◽  
F. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
General Description ◽  
Ensemble Modeling ◽  
Uncertainty Range

Abstract. A cloud–aerosol–radiation (CAR) ensemble modeling system has been developed to incorporate the largest choices of alternate parameterizations for cloud properties (cover, water, radius, optics, geometry), aerosol properties (type, profile, optics), radiation transfers (solar, infrared), and their interactions. These schemes form the most comprehensive collection currently available in the literature, including those used by the world's leading general circulation models (GCMs). CAR provides a unique framework to determine (via intercomparison across all schemes), reduce (via optimized ensemble simulations), and attribute specific key factors for (via physical process sensitivity analyses) the model discrepancies and uncertainties in representing greenhouse gas, aerosol, and cloud radiative forcing effects. This study presents a general description of the CAR system and illustrates its capabilities for climate modeling applications, especially in the context of estimating climate sensitivity and uncertainty range caused by cloud–aerosol–radiation interactions. For demonstration purposes, the evaluation is based on several CAR standalone and coupled climate model experiments, each comparing a limited subset of the full system ensemble with up to 896 members. It is shown that the quantification of radiative forcings and climate impacts strongly depends on the choices of the cloud, aerosol, and radiation schemes. The prevailing schemes used in current GCMs are likely insufficient in variety and physically biased in a significant way. There exists large room for improvement by optimally combining radiation transfer with cloud property schemes.

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zili Yang ◽  
Yi-Ming Wei ◽  
Zhifu Mi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Interdisciplinary Research ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Integrated Model ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) for climate change refers to a broad category of research approaches in climate change. Climate change is the most complicated global environmental problem. By the very nature of climate change, research has to be interdisciplinary and multifaceted. IAM is the mainstream methodological approach in climate change research. Most researchers in climate change utilize IAMs directly or indirectly. IAMs draw knowledge and strengths from various disciplines related to climate change; contributions from each discipline rely on the mathematical representations of certain relationships connected to climate change; disciplinary components are linked through a unified modeling platform(s). In particular, IAMs for climate change usually involve social-economic components as well as natural sciences components. The key linkages in IAM platforms are anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in climate systems and climate change impacts on social-economic systems. The outputs of IAMs are numerical simulation results based on assumptions, historical data, and scenario designs. IAMs are widely used in assessing various GHG mitigation policies and climate impacts. In fact, conclusions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports are drawn substantially from numerous IAMs. IAMs for climate change started in the late 1980s. Since then, IAMs for climate change have developed into a full-fledged interdisciplinary research field that involves hundreds of models, thriving online resources, and thousands of academic publications and policy reports around the world. IAM for climate change, as an interdisciplinary research approach, has received recognition by mainstream disciplines. The Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) and the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)—two IAMs for climate change—are part of the core contributions in William Nordhaus’s Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2018.

Implications of intrinsic variability for economic assessments of climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Stainforth ◽  
Raphael Calel ◽  
Sandra Chapman ◽  
Nicholas Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Damage Function ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Social Planner ◽  
Intrinsic Variability ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models

<p>Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are widely used to evaluate the economic costs of climate change, the social cost of carbon and the value of mitigation policies. These IAMs include simple energy balance models (EBMs) to represent the physical climate system and to calculate the timeseries of global mean temperature in response to changing radiative forcing[1]. The EBMs are deterministic in nature which leads to smoothly varying GMT trajectories so for simple monotonically increasing forcing scenarios (e.g. representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 8.5, 6.0 and 4.5) the GMT trajectories are also monotonically increasing. By contrast real world, and global-climate-model-derived, timeseries show substantial inter-annual and inter-decadal variability. Here we present an analysis of the implications of this intrinsic variability for the economic consequences of climate change.</p><p>We use a simple stochastic EBM to generate large ensembles of GMT trajectories under each of the RCP forcing scenarios. The damages implied by each trajectory are calculated using the Weitzman damage function. This provides a conditional estimate of the unavoidable uncertainty in implied damages. It turns out to be large and positively skewed due to the shape of the damage function. Under RCP2.6 we calculate a 5-95% range of -30% to +52% of the deterministic value; -13% to +16% under RCP 8.5. The risk premia associated with such unavoidable uncertainty are also significant. Under our economic assumptions a social planner would be willing to pay 32 trillion dollars to avoid just the intrinsic uncertainty in RCP8.5. This figure rises further when allowance is made for epistemic uncertainty in relation to climate sensitivity. We conclude that appropriate representation of stochastic variability in the climate system is important to include in future economic assessments of climate change.</p><p><br>[1] Calel, R. and Stainforth D.A., “On the Physics of Three Integrated Assessment Models”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2017.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component

2011 ◽  
Vol 113 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 897-917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andries F. Hof ◽  
Chris W. Hope ◽  
Jason Lowe ◽  
Michael D. Mastrandrea ◽  
Malte Meinshausen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models ◽  
Change Mitigation

scholarly journals Valuing climate impacts in integrated assessment models: the MIT IGSM

2012 ◽  
Vol 117 (3) ◽  
pp. 561-573 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Reilly ◽  
Sergey Paltsev ◽  
Ken Strzepek ◽  
Noelle E. Selin ◽  
Yongxia Cai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models

scholarly journals Radiative and climate impacts of a large volcanic eruption during stratospheric sulfur geoengineering

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 305-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Laakso ◽  
H. Kokkola ◽  
A.-I. Partanen ◽  
U. Niemeier ◽  
C. Timmreck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Both explosive volcanic eruptions, which emit sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, and stratospheric geoengineering via sulfur injections can potentially cool the climate by increasing the amount of scattering particles in the atmosphere. Here we employ a global aerosol-climate model and an Earth system model to study the radiative and climate changes occurring after an erupting volcano during solar radiation management (SRM). According to our simulations the radiative impacts of the eruption and SRM are not additive and the radiative effects and climate changes occurring after the eruption depend strongly on whether SRM is continued or suspended after the eruption. In the former case, the peak burden of the additional stratospheric sulfate as well as changes in global mean precipitation are fairly similar regardless of whether the eruption takes place in a SRM or non-SRM world. However, the maximum increase in the global mean radiative forcing caused by the eruption is approximately 21 % lower compared to a case when the eruption occurs in an unperturbed atmosphere. In addition, the recovery of the stratospheric sulfur burden and radiative forcing is significantly faster after the eruption, because the eruption during the SRM leads to a smaller number and larger sulfate particles compared to the eruption in a non-SRM world. On the other hand, if SRM is suspended immediately after the eruption, the peak increase in global forcing caused by the eruption is about 32 % lower compared to a corresponding eruption into a clean background atmosphere. In this simulation, only about one-third of the global ensemble-mean cooling occurs after the eruption, compared to that occurring after an eruption under unperturbed atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, the global cooling signal is seen only for the 12 months after the eruption in the former scenario compared to over 40 months in the latter. In terms of global precipitation rate, we obtain a 36 % smaller decrease in the first year after the eruption and again a clearly faster recovery in the concurrent eruption and SRM scenario, which is suspended after the eruption. We also found that an explosive eruption could lead to significantly different regional climate responses depending on whether it takes place during geoengineering or into an unperturbed background atmosphere. Our results imply that observations from previous large eruptions, such as Mount Pinatubo in 1991, are not directly applicable when estimating the potential consequences of a volcanic eruption during stratospheric geoengineering.

scholarly journals On the future role of the most parsimonious climate module in integrated assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-155
Author(s):  
Mohammad M. Khabbazan ◽  
Hermann Held
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Box Model ◽  
Time To Peak ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Models ◽  
The One

Abstract. In the following, we test the validity of a one-box climate model as an emulator for atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The one-box climate model is currently employed in the integrated assessment models FUND, MIND, and PAGE, widely used in policy making. Our findings are twofold. Firstly, when directly prescribing AOGCMs' respective equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECSs) and transient climate responses (TCRs) to the one-box model, global mean temperature (GMT) projections are generically too high by 0.5 K at peak temperature for peak-and-decline forcing scenarios, resulting in a maximum global warming of approximately 2 K. Accordingly, corresponding integrated assessment studies might tend to overestimate mitigation needs and costs. We semi-analytically explain this discrepancy as resulting from the information loss resulting from the reduction of complexity. Secondly, the one-box model offers a good emulator of these AOGCMs (accurate to within 0.1 K for Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs, namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP6.0), provided the AOGCM's ECS and TCR values are universally mapped onto effective one-box counterparts and a certain time horizon (on the order of the time to peak radiative forcing) is not exceeded. Results that are based on the one-box model and have already been published are still just as informative as intended by their respective authors; however, they should be reinterpreted as being influenced by a larger climate response to forcing than intended.

scholarly journals How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO2 radiative forcing?

2015 ◽  
Vol 133 (4) ◽  
pp. 565-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen ◽  
Detlef P van Vuuren ◽  
Maarten van den Berg ◽  
Andries F Hof ◽  
Chris Hope ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models

scholarly journals Substantial Climate Response outside the Target Area in an Idealized Experiment of Regional Radiation Management

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 66
Author(s):  
Sudhakar Dipu ◽  
Johannes Quaas ◽  
Martin Quaas ◽  
Wilfried Rickels ◽  
Johannes Mülmenstädt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Local Cooling ◽  
Target Region ◽  
Radiation Management

Radiation management (RM) has been proposed as a conceivable climate engineering (CE) intervention to mitigate global warming. In this study, we used a coupled climate model (MPI-ESM) with a very idealized setup to investigate the efficacy and risks of CE at a local scale in space and time (regional radiation management, RRM) assuming that cloud modification is technically possible. RM is implemented in the climate model by the brightening of low-level clouds (solar radiation management, SRM) and thinning of cirrus (terrestrial radiation management, TRM). The region chosen is North America, and we simulated a period of 30 years. The implemented sustained RM resulted in a net local radiative forcing of −9.8 Wm−2 and a local cooling of −0.8 K. Surface temperature (SAT) extremes (90th and 10th percentiles) show negative anomalies in the target region. However, substantial climate impacts were also simulated outside the target area, with warming in the Arctic and pronounced precipitation change in the eastern Pacific. As a variant of RRM, a targeted intervention to suppress heat waves (HW) was investigated in further simulations by implementing intermittent cloud modification locally, prior to the simulated HW situations. In most cases, the intermittent RRM results in a successful reduction of temperatures locally, with substantially smaller impacts outside the target area compared to the sustained RRM.

scholarly journals The G4Foam Experiment: global climate impacts of regional ocean albedo modification

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 595-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corey J. Gabriel ◽  
Alan Robock ◽  
Lili Xia ◽  
Brian Zambri ◽  
Ben Kravitz
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Ocean Gyres ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Reducing insolation has been proposed as a geoengineering response to global warming. Here we present the results of climate model simulations of a unique Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Testbed experiment to investigate the benefits and risks of a scheme that would brighten certain oceanic regions. The National Center for Atmospheric Research CESM CAM4-Chem global climate model was modified to simulate a scheme in which the albedo of the ocean surface is increased over the subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere. In theory, this could be accomplished using a stable, nondispersive foam, comprised of tiny, highly reflective microbubbles. Such a foam has been developed under idealized conditions, although deployment at a large scale is presently infeasible. We conducted three ensemble members of a simulation (G4Foam) from 2020 through to 2069 in which the albedo of the ocean surface is set to 0.15 (an increase of 150 %) over the three subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere, against a background of the RCP6.0 (representative concentration pathway resulting in +6 W m−2 radiative forcing by 2100) scenario. After 2069, geoengineering is ceased, and the simulation is run for an additional 20 years. Global mean surface temperature in G4Foam is 0.6 K lower than RCP6.0, with statistically significant cooling relative to RCP6.0 south of 30° N. There is an increase in rainfall over land, most pronouncedly in the tropics during the June–July–August season, relative to both G4SSA (specified stratospheric aerosols) and RCP6.0. Heavily populated and highly cultivated regions throughout the tropics, including the Sahel, southern Asia, the Maritime Continent, Central America, and much of the Amazon experience a statistically significant increase in precipitation minus evaporation. The temperature response to the relatively modest global average forcing of −1.5 W m−2 is amplified through a series of positive cloud feedbacks, in which more shortwave radiation is reflected. The precipitation response is primarily the result of the intensification of the southern Hadley cell, as its mean position migrates northward and away from the Equator in response to the asymmetric cooling.

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