scholarly journals Explaining the crime drop: contributions to declining crime rates from youth cohorts since 2005

2019 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-53
Author(s):  
Gwyn Griffiths ◽  
Gareth Norris
Keyword(s):  
Crime Rates ◽  
Crime Drop

Development and Crime Drop: A Time-Series Analysis of Crime Rates in Hong Kong in the Last Three Decades

2020 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2096994
Author(s):  
Xi Chen ◽  
Hua Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Routine Activities ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Routine Activities Theory ◽  
Crime Trends ◽  
Institutional Anomie Theory ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Crime Drop ◽  
Anomie Theory

Although the recent crime drop in Western societies has rejuvenated crime trend studies, little is known about the crime trends and the corresponding explanations in the East. This study aims to fill the gaps by examining different types of offenses in Hong Kong between 1976 and 2017. Specifically, this study tests and evaluates major macro-level theoretical approaches explaining crime trends, including institutional anomie theory, routine activities theory, and deterrence theory. Using Error Correction Models, our analyses reveal that the strengths of different social institutions are negatively associated with crime rates, showing strong support to institutional anomie theory. The results also partially support routine activities theory by demonstrating that levels of economic development are negatively associated with both violent and property crime rates, and the number of mobile cellular subscriptions is negatively related to homicide rates. Deterrence explanations are mainly supported for property crime. These findings provide theoretical insights on the etiology of crime and also yield important policy suggestions on how to sustain the observed decline in crime rates in modern societies.

scholarly journals The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John J Donohue ◽  
Steven Levitt
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Crime Drop ◽  
Crime Decline ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Out Of Sample Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Donohue and Levitt (2001) presented evidence that the legalization of abortion in the early 1970s played an important role in the crime drop of the 1990s. That paper concluded with a strong out-of-sample prediction regarding the next two decades: “When a steady state is reached roughly twenty years from now, the impact of abortion will be roughly twice as great as the impact felt so far. Our results suggest that all else equal, legalized abortion will account for persistent declines of 1% a year in crime over the next two decades.” Estimating parallel specifications to the original paper, but using the seventeen years of data generated after that paper was written, we find strong support for the prediction and the broad hypothesis, while illuminating some previously unrecognized patterns of crime and arrests. We estimate that overall crime fell 17.5% from 1998 to 2014 due to legalized abortion—a decline of 1% per year. From 1991 to 2014, the violent and property crime rates each fell by 50%. Legalized abortion is estimated to have reduced violent crime by 47% and property crime by 33% over this period, and thus can explain most of the observed crime decline.

scholarly journals Juvenile crime drop: What is happening with youth in Spain and why?

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 306-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esther Fernández-Molina ◽  
Raquel Bartolomé Gutiérrez
Keyword(s):  
Gender Equality ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Juvenile Crime ◽  
Western World ◽  
Crime Trends ◽  
Crime Drop ◽  
Report Data ◽  
Self Report Data

One of the most robust findings in criminology is the fall in crime rates throughout the Western world. However, there is still much to be learnt about this and its causes. This case study analyses the Spanish juvenile crime trends and tests the explanatory capacity of the sociodemographic hypotheses. We use aggregate data provided by the police and self-report data. Our analysis could be of interest in a worldwide debate on the crime drop. Demographic changes and the economic situation have little relevance in explaining the changes. However, public policies seem to have had a greater impact on crime trends. Furthermore, gender equality can be considered a possible explanatory factor.

Social capital and violent crime rates across U. S. Communities

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven F. Messner ◽  
Eric P. Baumer ◽  
Richard Rosenfeld
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Crime Rates

Trust in the Police: Cross-country Comparisons

2012 ◽  
pp. 24-47
Author(s):  
V. Gimpelson ◽  
G. Monusova
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Attitudes ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
The Public ◽  
Positive Attitudes ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Police Activity

Using different cross-country data sets and simple econometric techniques we study public attitudes towards the police. More positive attitudes are more likely to emerge in the countries that have better functioning democratic institutions, less prone to corruption but enjoy more transparent and accountable police activity. This has a stronger impact on the public opinion (trust and attitudes) than objective crime rates or density of policemen. Citizens tend to trust more in those (policemen) with whom they share common values and can have some control over. The latter is a function of democracy. In authoritarian countries — “police states” — this tendency may not work directly. When we move from semi-authoritarian countries to openly authoritarian ones the trust in the police measured by surveys can also rise. As a result, the trust appears to be U-shaped along the quality of government axis. This phenomenon can be explained with two simple facts. First, publicly spread information concerning police activity in authoritarian countries is strongly controlled; second, the police itself is better controlled by authoritarian regimes which are afraid of dangerous (for them) erosion of this institution.

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