Classical deterrence theory revisited: An empirical analysis of Police Force Areas in England and Wales

The severity, certainty and celerity (swiftness) of punishment are theorised to influence offending through deterrence. Yet celerity is rarely included in empirical studies of criminal activity and the three deterrence factors have never been analysed in one empirical model. We address this gap with an analysis using unique panel data of recorded theft, burglary and violence against the person for 41 Police Force Areas in England and Wales using variables that capture these three theorised factors of deterrence. We find that the three factors affect crime in different ways. Increased detection by the police (certainty) is associated with reduced theft and burglary but not violence. We find that variation in the celerity of sanction has a significant impact on theft offences but not on burglary or violence offences. Increased average prison sentences (severity) reduce burglary only. We account for these results in terms of data challenges and the likely different motivations underlying violent and acquisitive crime.

Contrasts in freedom: Comparing the experiences of imprisonment in open and closed prisons in England and Wales and Norway

Open prisons are portrayed as less harmful custodial institutions than closed prisons, and prison systems that rely more heavily on low security imprisonment are typically considered to have a more humane and less punitive approach to punishment. However, few studies have systematically compared the subjective experiences of prisoners held in open and closed prisons, and no study has yet compared the role and function of open prisons across jurisdictions. Drawing on a survey conducted with prisoners (N = 1082) in 13 prisons in England and Wales and Norway, we provide the first comparative analysis of experiences of imprisonment in closed and open prisons, conducted in countries with diverging penal philosophies (‘neoliberal’ vs. ‘social democratic’). The article documents that open prisons play a much more significant role in Norway than in England and Wales; that prisoners in both countries rate their experience significantly more positively in open compared to closed prisons; and that while imprisonment seems to produce similar kinds of pains in both types of prisons, they are perceived as less severe and more manageable in open prisons. These findings suggest important implications for comparative penology, penal policy, and prison reform.

Community multiculturalism and immigrant crime

There is considerable international and local-level variation in immigrant crime. In this article, we propose a theoretical model to better understand that contextual variation. Furthermore, we present the results of our first attempts to empirically assess the validity of the framework, focussing on local-level variation in crime among residents of Turkish or Moroccan origin in the Netherlands. The proposed model connects Berry's acculturation theory to criminological theories, using relevant findings from the immigration acculturation literature as starting points. It theorises that host societies with a ‘multicultural acculturation orientation’ tend to reduce immigrant crime by fostering informal social control and attenuating criminogenic strains. The empirical analyses explore whether local-level variation in multicultural attitudes among the native-Dutch indeed predicts municipal variation in the number of registered suspected crimes among first- and second-generation immigrants, focussing on men of Turkish or Moroccan origin residing in 35 Dutch cities. The empirical analyses are based on a unique database that combines aggregated survey data, which were used to measure natives’ acculturation attitudes, with administrative microdata, including micro-level police data. Evidence is found for a protective effect of local-level multiculturalism for first-generation immigrant crime in particular, especially for immigrant men living in larger local immigrant communities. We also find stronger effects for the more cohesive and societally accepted Turkish-Dutch group than for the more fragmented and excluded Moroccan-Dutch.

Explaining cheating in schools with Situational Action Theory: Within-estimations using a German school panel

Wikström's Situational Action Theory (SAT) explains rule-breaking by reference to the cognitive perception-choice process, which indicates how a person's propensity to break rules interacts with the setting's criminogeneity. SAT's situational model claims that the interaction between personal morality and the moral norms of the setting, the so-called moral filter, is critical in the explanation of rule-breaking, and that the influence of self-control is subordinate to this process. Self-control becomes relevant when individuals whose personal morality discourages rule-breaking are exposed to settings in which the moral norms encourage rule-breaking, that is, if the moral filter is conflicted. Whereas most previous studies have equated the moral filter with personal morality, we consider the moral norms of the setting as well. This allows for a more rigorous test of the moral filter, and thus the conditionality of self-control. Here, we investigate student cheating, using data from two waves of a large-scale German school panel study, and we conceptualise the setting's moral norms by reference to the descriptive norm: other students’ cheating behaviour. This ensures the spatio-linkage between the setting's criminogeneity and rule-breaking, which is necessary for investigating SAT. Additionally, our estimation strategy – person and school fixed-effect models – controls for alternative explanations by the selection of people into settings with different levels of criminogeneity. Moreover, it controls for heterogeneity across persons and schools. The findings are in line with SAT's predictions. In cases of a correspondence between personal morality and the moral norms of a setting, students with rule-abiding morality are least likely to cheat, whereas students with a rule-breaking morality are the most likely to cheat. Also, in line with SAT, self-control only matters for students with rule-abiding morality when they are exposed to moral norms that encourage rule-breaking.

Depression and repression: Global capitalism, economic crisis and penal politics in interwar Greece

Notwithstanding the significant advances made over the last twenty years in terms of charting and explaining the ways in which state punishment is influenced by economic and political forces, little is still known about the penal effects of conditions of economic crisis and about the role the incumbent government's political orientation plays in this regard. Because the few available studies on these questions have been preoccupied with the Anglo-American sphere and only in the context of recent decades at that, even less is known either about the implications that different types or experiences of economic crisis carry for state punishment, or about the influence exerted in this respect by government political orientations other than those found in established democracies. Irrespective of geographical or temporal scope, moreover, the impact that different extranational factors and actors may have in terms of economic, political or directly penal matters domestically remains poorly understood. With a view to helping fill these gaps in the literature, this article explores the effects on state punishment that economic crisis and government political orientation had in interaction with one another in the context of interwar Greece. Attention is first paid to various ways in which global capitalism was decisive in creating within Greece an environment conducive to increased punitiveness on the part of the state. The focus is on the economic, social and political consequences of the Wall Street crash of 1929 and Britain's exit from the gold standard in 1931, as these were exacerbated by Greece's long-term exposure to predatory lending, speculative investing and external interference in her domestic affairs in the context of engaging international capital markets. The article then proceeds to discuss how the Liberal government of 1928–1932 sought to handle the situation, particularly the approach it took towards punishment.

Punitive by negligence? The myths and reality of penal nationalism in the Czech Republic

Penal populism has repeatedly been described as influencing penal policies, with harsh penal practices presented as evidence of its influence. However, little attention has yet been paid to its role in the development of penal policies in post-authoritarian countries, which generally have large prison populations. Some minimal research has suggested that Central European countries were driven by penal nationalism following the 1989 revolutions. I examine this claim for the Czech Republic, using Garland (2013) 's framework of the five dimensions of a penal state. My analysis of political manifestoes shows that Czech politicians did not employ “law and order” rhetoric. The country's penal reforms were led by lenient penal elites. Nevertheless, a lack of analysis, coordination and sufficient funding resulted in a failure to properly identify or tackle the causes of the country's high imprisonment rate. Even though it gradually became more difficult to impose prison sentences, insufficient attention was paid to the length of the sentences Czech prisoners were serving. The large Czech prison population thus seems to be the result of state actors’ negligence, but not of penal populism nor of penal nationalism.

Inequality, welfare and punishment. Comparative notes between the Global North and South

In this paper, I will describe how two strong connections between, on the one hand, income inequality and welfare generosity, and, on the other, punitiveness, have been built in both theoretical and empirical explorations in the contemporary comparative literature on the sociology of punishment. Then, I will point out the strong concentration of these explorations on national cases from the Global North as a potential limitation. From there, I will try to ‘southernize’ this debate, through three empirical exercises related to a region of the Global South, Latin America. First, I will include this region in a global comparison of clusters of countries to define whether there is an association between the levels of income inequality and welfare generosity and the levels of punitiveness, both now and in the recent past. Second, I will analyse if the same relationships exist within Latin America countries, both now and in the recent past. Finally, I will examine whether these same relationships are relevant for understanding the evolution of the levels of punitiveness in Latin America over the last three decades. Based on the results of these three exercises, I will examine the shortcomings stemming from assuming these strong statements as universal, placeless and timeless, warning that the styles of comparison that have generated them have to be taken as starting points rather than as arrival points of the analysis and stressing that our analyses about contemporary penal differences, while taking macroscopic dimensions into account, should give a strong centrality to the ‘proximate’ processes that mould penal actions and results.

Victimization experience does matter: Testing the effect of different types of victimization on fear of crime among adolescents

The aim of the present study is to thoroughly examine the relationship between adolescent fear of crime and a wide variety of offences which commonly affect children. The analysed data comes from the Urban Youth Victimization Survey conducted among 9th grade students in the Czech Republic. The results unequivocally demonstrate that victimization experience, when measured properly, substantially affects adolescent fear of crime. All analysed types of victimization are associated with fear of crime, though the strongest effects were found for cyber-victimization and bullying rather than conventional violent and property crimes. Furthermore, a poly-victimization scale was revealed to be a highly effective tool for capturing overall victimization by using a single summary measure.

Women trafficking networks: Structure and stages of women trafficking in five Dutch small-scale networks

In this study, we investigated the relation between the different stages of women trafficking (i.e. recruitment, entrance, accommodation, labor, and finance) and the structure of five criminal networks involved in women trafficking in the Netherlands ( Ns ranging from 6 to 15). On the one hand, it could be argued that for efficiency and avoidance of being detected by law enforcement agencies, the network structure might align with the different stages, resulting in a cell-structured network with collaboration between actors within rather than across stages. On the other hand, criminal actors might prefer to collaborate and rely on a few others, whom they trust in order to circumvent the lack of formal opportunities to enforce collaboration and agreements, resulting in a core-periphery network with actors also collaborating across stages. Results indicate that three of the five networks were characterized by a core-periphery structure, whereas the two other networks exhibit a mixture of both a cell-structured and core-periphery network. Furthermore, using an Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM), we found that actors were likely to form ties with each other in the stages of recruitment, accommodation, and exploitation, but not in the stages of transport and finance.

Violence, worry and trust in the emergence of weapon-carrying

This paper identifies longitudinal predictors of weapon-carrying in a sample of 10–25 year olds in England and Wales. It conceptualises weapon-carrying as anticipation of an adverse event and proposes hypotheses about the origins of weapon-carrying derived from the field of risk analysis. Specifically, it tests if worry about victimisation and experience of violence predict later weapon-carrying and assesses the moderating influence of trust in the police. The results indicate that worry about victimisation does not predict weapon-carrying, but experience of violence does. Distrust of police and peer criminality were also identified as important precursors to weapon-carrying. The study provides further evidence that, at least over longer periods, weapon-carrying is a product of experience of violence and criminogenic factors rather than a response to concern about victimisation.