scholarly journals The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John J Donohue ◽  
Steven Levitt
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Crime Drop ◽  
Crime Decline ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Out Of Sample Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Donohue and Levitt (2001) presented evidence that the legalization of abortion in the early 1970s played an important role in the crime drop of the 1990s. That paper concluded with a strong out-of-sample prediction regarding the next two decades: “When a steady state is reached roughly twenty years from now, the impact of abortion will be roughly twice as great as the impact felt so far. Our results suggest that all else equal, legalized abortion will account for persistent declines of 1% a year in crime over the next two decades.” Estimating parallel specifications to the original paper, but using the seventeen years of data generated after that paper was written, we find strong support for the prediction and the broad hypothesis, while illuminating some previously unrecognized patterns of crime and arrests. We estimate that overall crime fell 17.5% from 1998 to 2014 due to legalized abortion—a decline of 1% per year. From 1991 to 2014, the violent and property crime rates each fell by 50%. Legalized abortion is estimated to have reduced violent crime by 47% and property crime by 33% over this period, and thus can explain most of the observed crime decline.

Is a Decentralized Police Organization a Better Option in a Modern Democratic Society? A Case Study From South Korea

2021 ◽  
pp. 109861112110420
Author(s):  
Sungil Han ◽  
Jennifer LaPrade ◽  
EuiGab Hwang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Fear Of Crime ◽  
Police Department ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Crime Clearance

While western countries have had a decentralized policing model for many years, some countries, such as South Korea, still employ a centralized, national police department. Responding to calls for reform, South Korea launched a pilot program and implemented a more decentralized policing structure in Jeju Island in 2006. This study adds to the policing literature by offering the empirical comparison of a region before and after decentralization of a police department. This study will examine the intervention effects of police decentralization in Jeju, specifically related to crime rates, crime clearance rates, victimization, trust in police, and fear of crime. Using propensity score matching and interrupted time series analysis, this study found that the decentralized policing intervention significantly reduced total crime, violent crime rates, and property crime rates that lasted throughout the intervention period, while improving crime clearance rates for violent crime, as well as reduced fear of crime among residents.

scholarly journals A call for comparative thinking: Crime, citizenship and security in the global South

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa Barolsky ◽  
Suren Pillay
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Democratic Governance ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
The World ◽  
Resource Poor ◽  
International Comparative ◽  
The Impact

This article argues for the importance of an international comparative perspective in terms of our analysis and response to violent crime. This is particularly important in the light of the fact that while an increasing number of countries in the global Southhave achieved formal democracy, they continue to be plagued by high levels of violent crime. In fact, transitions from authoritarian to democratic governance around the world, from Eastern Europe to Latin America and Africa, have been accompanied by escalating violent crime rates. In this context, we have much to learn from an international comparative approach in terms of understanding why democratic transitions are so often accompanied by increases in violence, what the impact of this violence is on the ability of these societies to deepen democracy, and what the most appropriate interventions are in relatively new and often resource poor democracies.

Club convergence of crime rates in the United States of America

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kolawole Ogundari
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Club Convergence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Convergence Club ◽  
Over Time

Purpose The cyclical behavior of US crime rates reflects the dynamics of crime in the country. This paper aims to investigate the US's club convergence of crime rates to provide insights into whether the crime rates increased or decreased over time. The paper also analyzes the factors influencing the probability of states converging to a particular convergence club of crime. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on balanced panel data from all 50 states and the district of Columbia on violent and property crime rates covering 1976–2019. This yields a cross-state panel of 2,244 observations with 55 time periods and 51 groups. In addition, the author used a club clustering procedure to investigate the convergence hypothesis in the study. Findings The empirical results support population convergence of violent crime rates. However, the evidence that supports population convergence of property crime rates in the study is not found. Further analysis using the club clustering procedure shows that property crime rates converge into three clubs. The existence of club convergence in property crime rates means that the variation in the property crime rates tends to narrow among the states within each of the clubs identified in the study. Analysis based on an ordered probit model identifies economic, geographic and human capital factors that significantly drive the state's convergence club membership. Practical implications The central policy insight from these results is that crime rates grow slowly over time, as evident by the convergence of violent crime and club convergence of property crime in the study. Moreover, the existence of club convergence of property crime is an indication that policies to mitigate property crime might need to target states within each club. This includes the efforts to use state rather than national crime-fighting policies. Social implications As crimes are committed at the local level, this study's primary limitation is the lack of community-level data on crime and other factors considered. Analysis based on community-level data might provide a better representation of crime dynamics. However, the author hopes to consider this as less aggregated data are available to use in future research. Originality/value The paper provides new insights into the convergence of crime rates using the club convergence procedure in the USA. This is considered an improvement to the methods used in the previous studies.

Housing Disinvestment and Crime in a Phoenix Suburb: Exploring the Differential Effects of Investors and Owner-Occupants

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 190-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alyssa W. Chamberlain ◽  
Danielle Wallace ◽  
Deirdre Pfeiffer ◽  
Janne Gaub
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Housing Crisis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sociodemographic Data ◽  
Combining Data ◽  
Home Sales ◽  
The Impact

External investment in neighborhoods can inhibit crime. However, during the housing crisis, many investors were foreclosed upon, triggering large-scale community disinvestment. Yet the impact of this type of disinvestment on crime is currently unknown. Combining data on crime incidents with foreclosure, home sales, and sociodemographic data, this research assesses whether the foreclosure of properties owned by investors has an effect on crime in neighborhoods in Chandler, Arizona, a suburb in the heavily affected Phoenix region. Neighborhoods with a greater proportion of foreclosures on investors (FOIs) have higher total and property crime rates in the short term. In Hispanic neighborhoods, a greater proportion of FOIs result in lower rates of crime. Results suggest that neighborhood stabilization efforts should consider the role of investors in driving short-term crime rates, and that police and code enforcement strategies might prioritize neighborhoods with a high proportion of investor foreclosures.

scholarly journals The Spatial and Social Patterning of Property and Violent Crime in Toronto Neighbourhoods: A Spatial-Quantitative Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Wang ◽  
Gabby Lee ◽  
Ian Williams
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Criminal Activity ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Suitable Model ◽  
Similar Distribution ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The City

Criminal activities are often unevenly distributed over space. The literature shows that the occurrence of crime is frequently concentrated in particular neighbourhoods and is related to a variety of socioeconomic and crime opportunity factors. This study explores the broad patterning of property and violent crime among different socio-economic stratums and across space by examining the neighbourhood socioeconomic conditions and individual characteristics of offenders associated with crime in the city of Toronto, which consists of 140 neighbourhoods. Despite being the largest urban centre in Canada, with a fast-growing population, Toronto is under-studied in crime analysis from a spatial perspective. In this study, both property and violent crime data sets from the years 2014 to 2016 and census-based Ontario-Marginalisation index are analysed using spatial and quantitative methods. Spatial techniques such as Local Moran’s I are applied to analyse the spatial distribution of criminal activity while accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Distance-to-crime is measured to explore the spatial behaviour of criminal activity. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression is conducted to explore the ways in which individual and neighbourhood demographic characteristics relate to crime rates at the neighbourhood level. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is used to further our understanding of the spatially varying relationships between crime and the independent variables included in the OLS model. Property and violent crime across the three years of the study show a similar distribution of significant crime hot spots in the core, northwest, and east end of the city. The OLS model indicates offender-related demographics (i.e., age, marital status) to be a significant predictor of both types of crime, but in different ways. Neighbourhood contextual variables are measured by the four dimensions of the Ontario-Marginalisation Index. They are significantly associated with violent and property crime in different ways. The GWR is a more suitable model to explain the variations in observed property crime rates across different neighbourhoods. It also identifies spatial non-stationarity in relationships. The study provides implications for crime prevention and security through an enhanced understanding of crime patterns and factors. It points to the need for safe neighbourhoods, to be built not only by the law enforcement sector but by a wide range of social and economic sectors and services.

The Impact of Drug Enforcement on Crime: An Investigation of the Opportunity Cost of Police Resources

2001 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 989-1006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce L. Benson ◽  
Ian Sebastian Leburn ◽  
David W. Rasmussen
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Crime Rate ◽  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Drug Laws ◽  
Drug Enforcement ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Impact

The conventional wisdom among the law enforcement community is that drug use causes crime and that stringent enforcement of drug laws is an effective tool to combat property and violent crime. Previous research by some of these authors found that a sharp increase in drug enforcement in Florida during 1984–1989 resulted in a reallocation of police resources which reduced the effectiveness of property crime enforcement and increased the property crime rate. Some have suspected that this result is the product of the very large increase in drug enforcement during this time period and that under “normal” circumstances greater drug enforcement would not result in higher property crime. This paper rebuts that suspicion.

Counting Guns

2002 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 699-708
Author(s):  
Gordon Wood ◽  
Robert Churchill ◽  
Edward Cook ◽  
James Lindgren ◽  
Wilbur Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Social Science ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Gun Control ◽  
Gun Laws ◽  
The Impact

At the fall 2001 Social Science History Association convention in Chicago, the Crime and Justice network sponsored a forum on the history of gun ownership, gun use, and gun violence in the United States. Our purpose was to consider how social science historians might contribute nowand in the future to the public debate over gun control and gun rights. To date, we have had little impact on that debate. It has been dominated by mainstream social scientists and historians, especially scholars such as Gary Kleck, John Lott, and Michael Bellesiles, whose work, despite profound flaws, is politically congenial to either opponents or proponents of gun control. Kleck and Mark Gertz (1995), for instance, argue on the basis of their widely cited survey that gun owners prevent numerous crimes each year in theUnited States by using firearms to defend themselves and their property. If their survey respondents are to be believed, American gun owners shot 100,000 criminals in 1994 in selfdefense–a preposterous number (Cook and Ludwig 1996: 57–58; Cook and Moore 1999: 280–81). Lott (2000) claims on the basis of his statistical analysis of recent crime rates that laws allowing private individuals to carry concealed firearms deter murders, rapes, and robberies, because criminals are afraid to attack potentially armed victims. However, he biases his results by confining his analysis to the years between 1977 and 1992, when violent crime rates had peaked and varied little from year to year (ibid.: 44–45). He reports only regression models that support his thesis and neglects to mention that each of those models finds a positive relationship between violent crime and real income, and an inverse relationship between violent crime and unemployment (ibid.: 52–53)–implausible relationships that suggest the presence of multicollinearity, measurement error, or misspecification. Lott then misrepresents his results by claiming falsely that statistical methods can distinguish in a quasi-experimental way the impact of gun laws from the impact of other social, economic, and cultural forces (ibid.: 26, 34–35; Guterl 1996). Had Lott extended his study to the 1930s, the correlation between gun laws and declining homicide rates that dominates his statistical analysis would have disappeared. An unbiased study would include some consideration of alternative explanations and an acknowledgment of the explanatory limits of statistical methods.

Official Crime Rates and Residents’ Sense of Security Across Neighborhoods in Tokyo, Japan

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimihiro Hino ◽  
Masaya Uesugi ◽  
Yasushi Asami
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Crime Rate ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Sense Of Security ◽  
Violent Crime Rate ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Official Crime

The aim of this study was to investigate, in consideration of individual attributes and neighborhood-level social capital, the association between official crime rates and sense of neighborhood security among residents in the 23 wards of Tokyo, Japan, using data obtained from a national questionnaire survey and police statistics on crime for 511 neighborhoods. We found that crime rates affected residents’ sense of security differently according to the type of crime committed and the spatial scale. Regarding individual attributes, sense of security among men and those aged 35 to 49 years was in line with the actual property crime rate, whereas that among women and the elderly was in line with the actual violent crime rate. In addition, even when controlling for social capital, which had a strong positive effect on residents’ sense of security, and individual attributes, all crime rates except that for violent crime were significantly related to residents’ sense of security in their neighborhood.

scholarly journals DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND CRIME IN THE PROVINCE OF ALBERTA

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gillian Stevens ◽  
Timothy Hartnagel ◽  
Dave Odynak ◽  
Jasmine Brazil
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Age Composition ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Specific Composition ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Gender Specific

We present forecasts of crime rates in the Province of Alberta, Canada for the decade 2010 to 2020. The results suggest that rates of all types of crime in the province will drop between 2010 and 2020, largely because of the aging of the population. Our forecasts of crime rates rest on three projections of the age-specific and gender-specific composition of the population using sets of assumptions about fertility, mortality, and net migration. We then estimate the rates of total crime, violent crime, property crime, and other crime by taking the age composition of the projected populations into account and presuming that the age-specific crime rates observed from 2006 to 2009 remain constant.

Is De-policing the Cause of the Spike in Urban Violence? Comment on Cassell

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 142-143
Author(s):  
Richard Rosenfeld
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Police Legitimacy ◽  
Urban Violence ◽  
Present Evidence ◽  
Disadvantaged Communities ◽  
Police Presence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
American Cities

Paul Cassell maintains that de-policing was a major cause of the spike in violent crime many American cities experienced during the summer of 2020. While plausible, Professor Cassell’s argument is unconvincing because it fails to explain why de-policing did not produce a rise in property crime, and it overstates the impact of policing on crime. Nor does he present evidence of a drop in police presence and activity large enough to produce such a huge increase in violence. Professor Cassell’s criticism of the argument that diminished police legitimacy caused the violence spike is more persuasive. He and I agree that the explanation for the spike lies somewhere in the nexus between the police and the disadvantaged communities they serve more or less effectively.

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