scholarly journals Money and credit during normal times and house price booms: evidence from time-frequency analysis

Empirica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 835-861
Author(s):  
Maciej Ryczkowski
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Price Boom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run

Abstract I analyse the link between money and credit for twelve industrialized countries in the time period from 1970 to 2016. The euro area and Commonwealth Countries have rather strong co-movements between money and credit at longer frequencies. Denmark and Switzerland show weak and episodic effects. Scandinavian countries and the US are somewhere in between. I find strong and significant longer run co-movements especially around booming house prices for all of the sample countries. The analysis suggests the expansionary policy that cleans up after the burst of a bubble may exacerbate the risk of a new house price boom. The interrelation is hidden in the short run, because the co-movements are then rarely statistically significant. According to the wavelet evidence, developments of money and credit since the Great Recession or their decoupling in Japan suggest that it is more appropriate to examine the two variables separately in some circumstances.

High house prices may be global systemic risk

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Household Income ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Boom ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
Property Markets

Subject The rise in global house prices. Significance In the first quarter of 2015, the global house price index, aggregating prices in 52 countries, was at about the same level as in early 2007, according to IMF data. This recovery has occurred in a period of wage gains in most emerging markets (EMs), but little or no growth in household income across most advanced economies. Living costs excluding housing have stagnated and interest rates have been exceptionally low. Yet US interest rates are rising now and global prices are unlikely to keep falling beyond 2016, while many EMs have slumped into recession. As households are hit by more adverse trends, property markets and the related sectors will be affected. Impacts The EM house price boom will be curbed by slowing income growth and weaker economic prospects. High house-prices-to-household-income ratios and household debt might require the introduction of macroprudential tools. The US housing market will stay affordable compared to its long-term average and to Europe's.

scholarly journals Das Ende der Immobilienblase in den USA

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (146) ◽  
pp. 129-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trevor Evans
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Corporate Sector ◽  
Economic Expansion ◽  
Price Boom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Current Record

The US economic expansion which began in 2002 has been strongly driven by consumer spending financed by borrowing against sharply rising house prices. But the house-price boom came to an end in early 2006, raising fears of a new recession. Until now, house prices have stopped rising rather than actually falling, and higher employment and earnings are helping to prevent a collapse of consumption. But as earnings begin to rise, the corporate sector might find it difficult to sustain the current record levels of profitability, and if it responds by cutting back investment, this could signal the end of the current expansion.

Real Estate

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Homburg
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Borrowing Constraints ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Land Prices ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Quantitative Importance

Chapter 6 examines real estate as a neglected feature of actual economies. It begins with an empirical overview demonstrating the preeminent role of land as a part of nonfinancial wealth. Whereas many macroeconomic models represent nonfinancial wealth by a symbol K that is interpreted as machines and equipment (if not robots), the text makes clear that such items are of minor quantitative importance. In contemporary economies, nonfinancial wealth consists chiefly of real estate. This is the proper reason so many analysts conjecture a link between house prices and the Great Recession. Changes in house prices (primarily changes in land prices) operate on the economy through their influence on nonfinancial wealth. Nonfinancial wealth affects consumption directly and investment indirectly since it relaxes or tightens borrowing constraints. Building on the results obtained in previous chapters, the text studies housing manias and leverage cycles and relates its main findings to US data.

Disruptive Soft Law and Post-Crisis US Reform

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abraham L. Newman ◽  
Elliot Posner
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Regulatory Reform ◽  
The United States ◽  
Soft Law ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Interaction

Chapter 6 examines the long-term effects of international soft law on policy in the United States since 2008. The extent and type of post-crisis US cooperation with foreign jurisdictions have varied considerably with far-reaching ramifications for international financial markets. Focusing on the international interaction of reforms in banking and derivatives, the chapter uses the book’s approach to understand US regulation in the wake of the Great Recession. The authors attribute seemingly random variation in the US relationship to foreign regulation and markets to differences in pre-crisis international soft law. Here, the existence (or absence) of robust soft law and standard-creating institutions determines the resources available to policy entrepreneurs as well as their orientation and attitudes toward international cooperation. Soft law plays a central role in the evolution of US regulatory reform and its interface with the rest of the world.

The Great Recession, behavioral health, and self-rated health: An examination of racial/ethnic differences in the US

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 ◽  
pp. 106873
Author(s):  
Nina Mulia ◽  
Yu Ye ◽  
Katherine J. Karriker-Jaffe ◽  
Libo Li ◽  
William C. Kerr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Health ◽  
Ethnic Differences ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Self Rated Health ◽  
The Us ◽  
Racial Ethnic

scholarly journals Financial shocks and inflation dynamics

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Angela Abbate ◽  
Sandra Eickmeier ◽  
Esteban Prieto
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Policy Implication ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Model ◽  
Financial Shocks ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Dual Mandate

Abstract We assess the effects of financial shocks on inflation, and to what extent financial shocks can account for the “missing disinflation” during the Great Recession. We apply a Bayesian vector autoregressive model to US data and identify financial shocks through a combination of narrative and short-run sign restrictions. Our main finding is that contractionary financial shocks temporarily increase inflation. This result withstands a large battery of robustness checks. Negative financial shocks help therefore to explain why inflation did not drop more sharply in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Our analysis suggests that higher borrowing costs after negative financial shocks can account for the modest decrease in inflation after the financial crisis. A policy implication is that financial shocks act as supply-type shocks, moving output and inflation in opposite directions, thereby worsening the trade-off for a central bank with a dual mandate.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Heeho Kim ◽  
◽  
SaeWoon Park ◽  
Sun Hye Lee ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
High Price ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Price Escalation ◽  
Housing Submarket

This paper studies the abnormal price behavior of Kangnam, a premium (high price) housing submarket in Seoul, Korea, which addresses the correlation between house prices, bank lending, and other factors, including income. Kangnam experienced the most dramatic price escalation during the study period (1999-2009) despite Korean government policies to stabilize house prices in 2005 and the U.S. subprime crisis in 2008. The empirical result shows that even though the house price in a premium market is, to some degree, positively influenced by income, it is not affected by bank lending in the short-run while negatively affected in the long-run. This suggests that a premium housing submarket has a peculiar price dynamics of its own unlike the other submarkets which seem to comply more or less with our notion of a general economic theory, especially in terms of house prices and bank lending.

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