scholarly journals Financial shocks and inflation dynamics

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Angela Abbate ◽  
Sandra Eickmeier ◽  
Esteban Prieto

Abstract We assess the effects of financial shocks on inflation, and to what extent financial shocks can account for the “missing disinflation” during the Great Recession. We apply a Bayesian vector autoregressive model to US data and identify financial shocks through a combination of narrative and short-run sign restrictions. Our main finding is that contractionary financial shocks temporarily increase inflation. This result withstands a large battery of robustness checks. Negative financial shocks help therefore to explain why inflation did not drop more sharply in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Our analysis suggests that higher borrowing costs after negative financial shocks can account for the modest decrease in inflation after the financial crisis. A policy implication is that financial shocks act as supply-type shocks, moving output and inflation in opposite directions, thereby worsening the trade-off for a central bank with a dual mandate.

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
Mario Rafael Silva

Revolving credit is the prime determinant of short-run household liquidity and comoves positively with product variety and negatively with unemployment. I develop a theory of feedback between revolving credit and product development and examine its ability to explain labor market volatility. Extending the Mortensen–Pissarides model with an endogenous borrowing constraint and free entry of monopolistically competitive firms reproduces stylized facts in the data and amplifies both productivity and financial shocks through mutual causality. Higher debt limits encourage firm entry and raise product variety (the entry channel), and greater variety makes default more costly and thereby raises the equilibrium debt level (the consumption value channel). Though productivity shocks are sufficient to generate higher volatility, financial shocks are essential in approximating the time series patterns of unemployment, vacancies, and revolving credit in the data, and reproduce the rise in unemployment during the Great Recession.


Empirica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 835-861
Author(s):  
Maciej Ryczkowski

Abstract I analyse the link between money and credit for twelve industrialized countries in the time period from 1970 to 2016. The euro area and Commonwealth Countries have rather strong co-movements between money and credit at longer frequencies. Denmark and Switzerland show weak and episodic effects. Scandinavian countries and the US are somewhere in between. I find strong and significant longer run co-movements especially around booming house prices for all of the sample countries. The analysis suggests the expansionary policy that cleans up after the burst of a bubble may exacerbate the risk of a new house price boom. The interrelation is hidden in the short run, because the co-movements are then rarely statistically significant. According to the wavelet evidence, developments of money and credit since the Great Recession or their decoupling in Japan suggest that it is more appropriate to examine the two variables separately in some circumstances.


2012 ◽  
Vol 33 (01) ◽  
pp. 19-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Charles Merrill

The Great Financial Crisis that broke in 2008 and the Great Recession that followed has led many to question the very structure of contemporary economies. Some argue that the economic model of the past forty years is now broken. Criticism has also been directed at the orthodoxies of economics. For example, neoclassical equilibrium economics, the mainstream economics of the day, is accused of failing to understand some of the most basic aspects of the modern economy (debt and money), of supporting policies that have led to the economic breakdown (deregulation), and of failing to see the crisis coming (Bezemer 2012, Keen 2011). Consequently, heterodox thinking in economics is getting a hearing as never before. Heterodox economics offers itself as the requisite radical reconstruction of the science of economics and also proposes policies for the radical reconstruction of the major economics.Yet to talk of the reconstruction of the modern market economy is at the same time to raise the ethical question: what shape ought the market economy to take? Heterodox economics may acutely analyse the inadequacies of real economies and propose plausible reforms, but as an essentially descriptive science there will be limits on its ability to state what ought to be. Rather, what is required seems to be a systematic prescriptive ethics. In other words, recent events in the world of economics have provided an opening for what ethical philosophy should be best at providing. Determining whether a specific ethical philosophy, to be identified shortly, has the capacity to address the questions raised by heterodox economics is the task of this paper.


Author(s):  
Pradit Withisuphakorn ◽  
Pornsit Jiraporn

Abstract We contribute to the debate on the costs and benefits of busy directors by investigating the effect of busy directors on firm value during a stressful time, i. e. during the Great Recession. Our results show that busy directors improve firm value significantly during the financial crisis. In particular, a rise in directors’ busyness by one standard deviation results in an improvement in Tobin’s q by 6.41 %. Directors with multiple board seats appear to help firms navigate the crisis more successfully, supporting the notion that multiple board seats signal higher quality. Outside the crisis period, however, we find that busy directors reduce firm value, consistent with many prior studies. Our results are crucial as they show that governance mechanisms function differently during stressful times than they do during normal times. Firms should exercise great caution before imposing limits on outside board seats on their directors.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 514-528
Author(s):  
Ebtihal N Almutairi ◽  
Hind N Almutairi

Purchasing power parity is an important economic concept that presents a useful way of analyzing various currencies by comparing a similar basket of goods. Essentially, the concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) implies that the purchasing power parity will be same for two countries if their currencies fetch the same basket of goods, thereby allowing a measure to assess and compare different currencies. In order to test this concept and presence of purchasing power parity between countries, this essay aims to extend a statistical exercise for assessing the PPP for France and USA for both the long and short run. The data used is a monthly time series for the price indexes for France, US, and the nominal and real exchange rates. Keywords: Purchasing power parity; economic; Augmented Dickey Fuller; Fuller test; Vector autoregressive model


2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 560-570
Author(s):  
Gerardo del Cerro Santamaría

This article discusses the consequences of the financial crisis that started in 2008 in the West, and particularly in the United States, as a manifestation of neoliberal capitalism’s multiple failures. In doing so, it focuses on the scholarly contributions of Manuel Castells and his colleagues in two important books: Aftermath: The Cultures of the Economic Crisis (2012) and Another Economy is Possible (2017). Both books are collective works led and edited by Castells. Also included in the review is a third book by Castells, Rupture: The Crisis of Liberal Democracy (2018), which can be read as a statement on some of the political consequences of the 2008 financial crisis and a report on the current crisis of liberal democracy. The contention is that Castells et al. make an important contribution to the socio-economic literature on the financial crisis, its consequences, and the interpretation of the societal changes that ensued and are key to understand our contemporary world. Such contribution, as observed in the three books under review, can be summarized as follows: (1) Castells and colleagues provide cases and examples from around the world in a broad comparative fashion, thus expanding our understanding of a crisis that was essentially a crisis of the West with ramifications in other countries but never a truly global crisis. (2) The approach of Castells and his colleagues is interdisciplinary and goes beyond purely economic arguments to include sociological, political and cultural ideas and insights that help us understand the complexity of the historical period under analysis; readers develop an awareness of the systemic character of the crisis, where all events were closely interrelated; in particular, both micro and macro processes leading to the crisis converged into a mutually dialectical and reinforcing relationship that warrants the contention by the authors that ‘economies’ are ‘cultures.’ (3) The authors in both Aftermath and Another Economy is Possible focus on the (long) aftermath of the crisis, which is still ongoing as of September 2019 around the world; in fact, one of Castells’ main points is that the financial crisis brought about irreversible societal change, ongoing and clearly visible today, as it triggered a significant restructuring of global informational capitalism. (4) The authors provide a focus on one of the reactive consequences of the crisis: alternative economic practices developing in the aftermath of the crisis, under the premise that we might be witnessing the rise of a new economic model based on new, alternative values. (5) Castells provides a discussion (in Rupture) of aspects of the contemporary political landscape a decade after the outset of the financial crisis and the Great Recession.


2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-90
Author(s):  
Evan Truscott

The 2008 'subprime' financial crisis caused intense economic recession and instability on an international scale, creating the need for immediate reactionary and interventionist policy from most governments. With a wealth of large-scale dedicated studies to this specific topic emerging in recent years, we have a unique opportunity to synthesize these findings in a way that could indicate potential effective policy actions. This paper intends to identify, categorize and compare an array of policies enacted by utilizing a specific cross section of nations similar in political culture (Australia, New Zealand, and Canada), in an attempt to broadly asses and isolate global trends of reactionary policy-making and the effectiveness of these policies, in nations of comparable institutions, over a relatively small time frame.


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