Changes in forest biomass and tree species distribution under climate change in the northeastern United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (7) ◽  
pp. 1399-1413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen J. Wang ◽  
Hong S. He ◽  
Frank R. Thompson ◽  
Jacob S. Fraser ◽  
William D. Dijak
2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (8) ◽  
pp. 997-1009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine F. Crowley ◽  
Gary M. Lovett

As tree species composition in forests of the northeastern United States changes due to invasive forest pests, climate change, or other stressors, the extent to which forests will retain or release N from atmospheric deposition remains uncertain. We used a species-specific, dynamic forest ecosystem model (Spe-CN) to investigate how nitrate (NO3–) leaching may vary among stands dominated by different species, receiving varied atmospheric N inputs, or undergoing species change due to an invasive forest pest (emerald ash borer; EAB). In model simulations, NO3– leaching varied widely among stands dominated by 12 northeastern North American tree species. Nitrate leaching increased with N deposition or forest age, generally with greater magnitude for deciduous (except red oak) than coniferous species. Species with lowest baseline leaching rates (e.g., red spruce, eastern hemlock, red oak) showed threshold responses to N deposition. EAB effects on leaching depended on the species replacing white ash: after 100 years, predicted leaching increased 73% if sugar maple replaced ash but decreased 55% if red oak replaced ash. This analysis suggests that the effects of tree species change on NO3– leaching over time may be large and variable and should be incorporated into predictions of effects of N deposition on leaching from forested landscapes.


2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (10) ◽  
pp. 2869-2881
Author(s):  
Janel Hanrahan ◽  
Alexandria Maynard ◽  
Sarah Y. Murphy ◽  
Colton Zercher ◽  
Allison Fitzpatrick

AbstractAs demand for renewable energy grows, so does the need for an improved understanding of renewable energy sources. Paradoxically, the climate change mitigation strategy of fossil fuel divestment is in itself subject to shifts in weather patterns resulting from climate change. This is particularly true with solar power, which depends on local cloud cover. However, because observed shortwave radiation data usually span a decade or less, persistent long-term trends may not be identified. A simple linear regression model is created here using diurnal temperature range (DTR) during 2002–15 as a predictor variable to estimate long-term shortwave radiation (SR) values in the northeastern United States. Using an extended DTR dataset, SR values are computed for 1956–2015. Statistically significant decreases in shortwave radiation are identified that are dominated by changes during the summer months. Because this coincides with the season of greatest insolation and the highest potential for energy production, financial implications may be large for the solar energy industry if such trends persist into the future.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. e0195851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos E. Manchego ◽  
Patrick Hildebrandt ◽  
Jorge Cueva ◽  
Carlos Iván Espinosa ◽  
Bernd Stimm ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flurin Babst ◽  
Richard L. Peters ◽  
Rafel O. Wüest ◽  
Margaret E.K. Evans ◽  
Ulf Büntgen ◽  
...  

<p>Warming alters the variability and trajectories of tree growth around the world by intensifying or alleviating energy and water limitation. This insight from regional to global-scale research emphasizes the susceptibility of forest ecosystems and resources to climate change. However, globally-derived trends are not necessarily meaningful for local nature conservation or management considerations, if they lack specific information on present or prospective tree species. This is particularly the case towards the edge of their distribution, where shifts in growth trajectories may be imminent or already occurring.</p><p>Importantly, the geographic and bioclimatic space (or “niche”) occupied by a tree species is not only constrained by climate, but often reflects biotic pressure such as competition for resources with other species. This aspect is underrepresented in many species distribution models that define the niche as a climatic envelope, which is then allowed to shift in response to changes in ambient conditions. Hence, distinguishing climatic from competitive niche boundaries becomes a central challenge to identifying areas where tree species are most susceptible to climate change.</p><p>Here we employ a novel concept to characterize each position within a species’ bioclimatic niche based on two criteria: a climate sensitivity index (CSI) and a habitat suitability index (HSI). The CSI is derived from step-wise multiple linear regression models that explain variability in annual radial tree growth as a function of monthly climate anomalies. The HSI is based on an ensemble of five species distribution models calculated from a combination of observed species occurrences and twenty-five bioclimatic variables. We calculated these two indices for 11 major tree species across the Northern Hemisphere.</p><p>The combination of climate sensitivity and habitat suitability indicated hotspots of change, where tree growth is mainly limited by competition (low HSI and low CSI), as well as areas that are particularly sensitive to climate variability (low HSI and high CSI). In the former, we expect that forest management geared towards adjusting the competitive balance between several candidate species will be most effective under changing environmental conditions. In the latter areas, selecting particularly drought-tolerant accessions of a given species may reduce forest susceptibility to the predicted warming and drying.</p>


2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 394-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen A. Wyka ◽  
Cheryl Smith ◽  
Isabel A. Munck ◽  
Barrett N. Rock ◽  
Beth L. Ziniti ◽  
...  

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