Effect of climate change on tree species distribution to support the elaboration of adaptive management strategies in natural protected areas

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (31) ◽  
pp. 312012
Author(s):  
F Attorre ◽  
M Vitale ◽  
F Tomasetto ◽  
A La Posta ◽  
F Fracesconi ◽  
...  
2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
M. G. Rivera ◽  
P. Del Monte-Luna

La Investigación Evaluativa (IE) se originó en el siglo XVII, pero surgió como disciplina formal en la década de 1970. La IE consiste en la aplicación de métodos de las ciencias sociales a la evaluación de actividades humanas específicas. La IE puede ser de diseño experimental, cuasi-experimental o no-experimental y debe reunir 10 puntos básicos entre los que destacan, la planeación y evaluación. En México han existido esfuerzos por evaluar programas de desarrollo social desde 1917 y actualmente esta labor la realiza el Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política Social. A nivel nacional, la evaluación del desempeño para todos los programas públicos es obligatoria. La IE es indispensable en materia de administración de recursos naturales; sin embargo, los trabajos publicados sobre este tópico son escasos. Respecto a las Áreas Marinas Protegidas (AMP), consideradas como instrumento universal de conservación de ecosistemas, la evaluación de los programas para implementarlas se lleva a cabo a nivel internacional mediante diversas metodologías. La evaluación de AMP se aplica con la finalidad de mejorar su gestión y desempeño en cuanto al cumplimiento de metas y objetivos (manejo adaptativo). En México, la evaluación de las AMP está a cargo de la Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas (CONANP), pero los métodos para realizarla son poco eficientes y se carece de la capacidad técnica para hacer las evaluaciones. Para subsanar esta carencia, se requiere fortalecer la capacidad de evaluación dentro de la administración de las AMP con el apoyo de las organizaciones de la sociedad civil y el sector académico. La adecuada evaluación de las AMP en México permitirá practicar un verdadero manejo adaptativo, cumplimentar los objetivos de implementación y, sobre todo, una clara rendición de cuentas a la sociedad acerca de su eficiencia como instrumento de manejo de recursos naturales. A review on the evaluation research of protected marine areas in Mexico Evaluation Research (ER) has its origins in the XVII century but emerges as a formal discipline in 1970. ER consists on the application of techniques used in social sciences to evaluate specific human activities. The ER design may be experimental, quasi experimental or non-experimental and must contain at least 10 basic points where the planning and evaluation are particularly important. In Mexico there have been efforts to evaluate the programs of social development since 1917. Currently, this task is performed by the National Council for Social Policy Evaluation and the assessment of all social programs is compulsory. Regarding to the administration of natural resources, ER is essential; however, papers published on the subject are scarce. In order to improve the management of the Marine Protected Areas (MPA) and to assess the level on which the goals and objectives has been reached (Adaptive Management) the ER is applied to evaluate the implementation of MPAs using different methodologies. In Mexico, the National Commission of Natural Protected Areas is in charge of the evaluation of the MPAs; however, the methods used have proven little effective and lack of technical capacity. In the MPAs to do such assessments it is necessary to reinforce the evaluation capacity within the administration of MPA supported by civil organizations and academy. Proper assessment of MPAs in Mexico will allow the practice of a true adaptive management, to meet the implementation objectives and, above all, a clear accountability to the society on the effectiveness of MPA as a tool for natural resources management.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. e0195851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos E. Manchego ◽  
Patrick Hildebrandt ◽  
Jorge Cueva ◽  
Carlos Iván Espinosa ◽  
Bernd Stimm ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flurin Babst ◽  
Richard L. Peters ◽  
Rafel O. Wüest ◽  
Margaret E.K. Evans ◽  
Ulf Büntgen ◽  
...  

<p>Warming alters the variability and trajectories of tree growth around the world by intensifying or alleviating energy and water limitation. This insight from regional to global-scale research emphasizes the susceptibility of forest ecosystems and resources to climate change. However, globally-derived trends are not necessarily meaningful for local nature conservation or management considerations, if they lack specific information on present or prospective tree species. This is particularly the case towards the edge of their distribution, where shifts in growth trajectories may be imminent or already occurring.</p><p>Importantly, the geographic and bioclimatic space (or “niche”) occupied by a tree species is not only constrained by climate, but often reflects biotic pressure such as competition for resources with other species. This aspect is underrepresented in many species distribution models that define the niche as a climatic envelope, which is then allowed to shift in response to changes in ambient conditions. Hence, distinguishing climatic from competitive niche boundaries becomes a central challenge to identifying areas where tree species are most susceptible to climate change.</p><p>Here we employ a novel concept to characterize each position within a species’ bioclimatic niche based on two criteria: a climate sensitivity index (CSI) and a habitat suitability index (HSI). The CSI is derived from step-wise multiple linear regression models that explain variability in annual radial tree growth as a function of monthly climate anomalies. The HSI is based on an ensemble of five species distribution models calculated from a combination of observed species occurrences and twenty-five bioclimatic variables. We calculated these two indices for 11 major tree species across the Northern Hemisphere.</p><p>The combination of climate sensitivity and habitat suitability indicated hotspots of change, where tree growth is mainly limited by competition (low HSI and low CSI), as well as areas that are particularly sensitive to climate variability (low HSI and high CSI). In the former, we expect that forest management geared towards adjusting the competitive balance between several candidate species will be most effective under changing environmental conditions. In the latter areas, selecting particularly drought-tolerant accessions of a given species may reduce forest susceptibility to the predicted warming and drying.</p>


2000 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 326-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arun Agrawal

Transboundary protected areas (PAs) currently represent nearly 10% of the world's network of PAs. The protection of their biological wealth poses special challenges because of the need for cooperation among sovereign states. Adaptive management strategies offer hope for a more accurate assessment of ecological conditions within PAs, and have the potential for furthering one of the major objectives of these PAs, namely enhancing environmental cooperation between countries across whose boundaries the protected area complex is situated. This paper examines the implications of adaptive management for transboundary PAs by using the Polish/Belarusian Bialowieza PAs as a case study. Managers of PAs have conventionally aimed at accurate predictions and short-term system equilibrium through ‘top-down’ policies of control and exclusion. In the case of PAs, these objectives have meant limiting use and employing models of linear growth. Adaptive management strategies rely instead on long-term experience, assessment of experimental interventions, and collection of greater amounts of information to assess future outcomes. They aim at the satisfaction of objectives that may include equilibrium changes. These features of adaptive management imply attention over time to the interactions between different key species, greater involvement of local populations in the collection of information about the resources, and experimenting with different levels of use to infer the most suitable protection strategies.


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