The influence of scientific research output of academics on economic growth in South Africa: an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) application

The relationship between taxation, government expenditure and economic growth. is a widely debated issue in the literature. The aim of this research is to present a fresh evidence from the nexus of taxation, government expenditure and economic growth in for the period 1991-2018 in South Africa, using recently developed combined co-integration test. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model(ARDL) is utilized to examine coefficients between the variables in the short and long-run The newly advanced Bayer-Hacks (BH) combined co-integration approach is employed so as to verify the ARDL bounds result. The empirical results from ARDL model revealed that there is a positive and significant relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in both short and long run. In addition, the study shows that tax revenue has a significant positive relationship with the economic growth. Therefore, levels of taxation and government expenditure are favorable to the growth of economy in South Africa. The research proposed that decision makers in South Africa should pay more attention on Taxation and government expenditure policies and the gains from economic growth such as channel much of its expenditure towards the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which have great potentials of increasing the supply of the products. Which in turn leads to reduce prices and increase in the rates of employment. This would, also make the country’s exports prices competitive.

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Defence Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration and Co-Feature Analysis

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy ◽

10.1515/peps-2021-0017 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 0 (0) ◽

Author(s):

Charles Shaaba Saba

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

South Africa ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Growth Series ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Defence Spending ◽

Short Run ◽

The Business Cycle

Abstract The paper revisits the causality relationship between defence spending and economic growth for South Africa during the period 1960–2018. The results of our estimation show that defence spending and economic growth are cointegrated and that there is bidirectional Granger causality running between defence spending and economic growth in the long run. We then applied a Hodrick-Prescott filter to decompose the trend and the fluctuation components of the defence spending and economic growth series. The findings from the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test estimations show that in the long- and short-run, the trends and cyclicality of defence spending retard economic growth. The estimation results show that there is cointegration between the trends and the cyclical components of the two series, which suggests that the Granger causality possibly relates to the business cycle. This study suggests that investing more and reducing inefficiency spending in the defence sector during fluctuations can further stimulate economic growth in South Africa.

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Causality Between Public Debt, Public Debt Service and Economic Growth in an Emerging Economy

Studia Universitatis Babe-Bolyai Oeconomica ◽

10.2478/subboec-2020-0001 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 65 (1) ◽

pp. 1-19

Author(s):

Talknice Saungweme ◽

Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

South Africa ◽

Public Debt ◽

Debt Service ◽

Bounds Testing ◽

Causality Test ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

AbstractThis paper explores the causality between public debt, public debt service and economic growth in South Africa covering the period 1970 – 2017. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and the multivariate Granger-causality test. The empirical results indicate that there is unidirectional causality from economic growth to public debt, but only in the short run. However, the study fails to establish any causality between public debt service and economic growth, both in the short run and long run. In line with the empirical evidence, the study concludes that it is economic growth that drives public debt in South Africa, and that the causal relationship between public debt and economic growth is sensitive to the timeframe considered. The paper recommends policymakers in South Africa to consider growth-enhancing policies in the short run, since poor economic performances may lead to high public debt levels.

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Investigating asymmetric effects of public debt on economic growth in South Africa: a smooth transition regression (STAR) approach

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies ◽

10.1108/ajems-02-2021-0072 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Bongumusa Prince Makhoba ◽

Irrshad Kaseeram ◽

Lorraine Greyling

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

South Africa ◽

Public Debt ◽

Smooth Transition ◽

Content Type ◽

Asymmetric Effects ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Smooth Transition Regression ◽

Nonlinear Autoregressive

PurposeThe primary purpose of the study is to analyse the asymmetric effects of public debt on economic growth, using secondary data over the period 1980–2018 in South Africa.Design/methodology/approachThis study estimated a Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach, using time series data to analyse the asymmetric effect of public debt on economic growth in South Africa.FindingsThe findings revealed a significant nonlinear relationship between public debt and economic growth in South Africa. The results showed an inverted U-Shape relationship, implying a significant positive influence of public debt on economic growth during the low-debt regime. While during a high-debt regime, public debt exerted a significant negative effect on economic growth. The study proposes that policymakers ought to consider targeting a sustainable debt threshold that would enhance efficient use of public finances consistent with long-term economic prosperity.Originality/valueThis paper asymmetries and threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in South Africa, through the application of dynamic nonlinear models namely, Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. Studies on the relationship under examination have predominantly been confined in advanced economies. This study provides rigorous empirical evidence from the South African perspective.

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Does Remittance Inflow Granger-Cause Economic Growth in South Africa? A Dynamic Multivariate Causality Test

The Review of Black Political Economy ◽

10.1177/0034644619885348 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 47 (1) ◽

pp. 86-103

Author(s):

Sheilla Nyasha ◽

Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

South Africa ◽

Causal Link ◽

Causality Test ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Poverty And Inequality ◽

Short Run ◽

Omission Bias

In this study, we examine the dynamic causal relationship between remittances and economic growth in South Africa during the period from 1970 to 2017. Although South Africa is well-known for being a source of cross-border remittances to various countries, especially in the African continent, remittance inflows to South Africa have grown in the recent past. The growth in remittances, on one hand, and the need to fight against poverty and inequality in South Africa and ultimately improve economic growth, on the other hand, prompted the need for this study. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach within a multivariate Granger-causality setting to examine the remittance-growth causal link—in an effort to address the variable-omission bias. The empirical findings of the study show that remittances and economic growth are not causally related in South Africa, irrespective of whether the estimations are done in the long run or in the short run. This finding, though contrary to the expectation, is not surprising, given the level of financial sector development in South Africa.

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Public Debt Service in South Africa and Its Impact on Economic Growth: An Empirical Test

The Review of Black Political Economy ◽

10.1177/0034644620960228 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 003464462096022

Author(s):

Talknice Saungweme ◽

Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

South Africa ◽

Public Debt ◽

Empirical Test ◽

Debt Service ◽

Policy Implications ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

By applying the autoregressive distributed lag approach, this article investigates the dynamic impact of public debt service on economic growth in South Africa, covering the period from 1970 to 2017. In the recent past, alarming bells have already started sounding about the country’s high debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio amid chronic low GDP growth. The article seeks to contribute to the debate that limiting the proportion of public debt service payments to gross national product can achieve economic growth by freeing domestic resources. The empirical findings of the study show that there is no statistically significant relationship between public debt service and economic growth in South Africa, irrespective of whether the estimations are done in the long run or in the short run. Policy implications are discussed.

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Faculty Opinions recommendation of An index to quantify an individual's scientific research output.

Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature ◽

10.3410/f.1028955.343445 ◽

2005 ◽

Author(s):

Marjori Matzke

Keyword(s):

Research Output ◽

Scientific Research ◽

Scientific Research Output

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Does the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Services Exports in Emerging Economies?

Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics ◽

10.17015/ejbe.2021.027.04 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (27) ◽

pp. 63-75

Author(s):

Okpeku Lilian ONOSE ◽

◽

Osman Nuri ARAS ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Emerging Economies ◽

Emerging Countries ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Per Capita ◽

Positive Effect ◽

Growth Hypothesis

The export-led growth hypothesis states a positive relationship between the growth of exports and long-run economic growth. This study examines the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis of services exports in 5 emerging economies, including Brazil, India, Nigeria, China, and South Africa (BINCS), for the period of 1980-2019. The study employs the panel mean group autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure to identify a causal relationship between services exports and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The findings show that the export-led growth hypothesis in services only has a positive effect on economic growth in the short run while other variables, including foreign direct investment (FDI), gross capital formation, and labour, increase economic growth in the long run. Hence, the emerging countries should focus more on internal investment to boost growth in the long and short run.

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