Calculation of Critical Rainfall for Small-Watershed Flash Floods Based on the HEC-HMS Hydrological Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (7) ◽  
pp. 2555-2575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenlin Yuan ◽  
Meiqi Liu ◽  
Fang Wan
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Small Watershed ◽  
Critical Rainfall

scholarly journals Assessment of flash floods taking into account climate change scenarios in the Llobregat River basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3145-3156 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Velasco ◽  
P. A. Versini ◽  
A. Cabello ◽  
A. Barrera-Escoda
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
The Future ◽  
Peak Over Threshold ◽  
Llobregat River

Abstract. Global change may imply important changes in the future occurrence and intensity of extreme events. Climate scenarios characterizing these plausible changes were previously obtained for the Llobregat River basin (NE Spain). This paper presents the implementation of these scenarios in the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) hydrological model. Then, the expected changes in terms of flash flood occurrence and intensity are assessed for two different sub-basins: the Alt Llobregat and the Anoia (Llobregat River basin). The assessment of future flash floods has been done in terms of the intensity and occurrence of extreme events, using a peak over threshold (POT) analysis. For these two sub-basins, most of the simulated scenarios present an increase of the intensity of the peak discharge values. On the other hand, the future occurrence follows different trends in the two sub-basins: an increase is observed in Alt Llobregat but a decrease occurs in Anoia. Despite the uncertainties that appear in the whole process, the results obtained can shed some light on how future flash floods events may occur.

scholarly journals Application of a distributed hydrological model to the design of a road inundation warning system for flash flood prone areas

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 805-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.-A. Versini ◽  
E. Gaume ◽  
H. Andrieu
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sections ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Erosion Processes ◽  
Stage Of Development

Abstract. This paper presents an initial prototype of a distributed hydrological model used to map possible road inundations in a region frequently exposed to severe flash floods: the Gard region (South of France). The prototype has been tested in a pseudo real-time mode on five recent flash flood events for which actual road inundations have been inventoried. The results are promising: close to 100% probability of detection of actual inundations, inundations detected before they were reported by the road management field teams with a false alarm ratios not exceeding 30%. This specific case study differs from the standard applications of rainfall-runoff models to produce flood forecasts, focussed on a single or a limited number of gauged river cross sections. It illustrates that, despite their lack of accuracy, hydro-meteorological forecasts based on rainfall-runoff models, especially distributed models, contain valuable information for flood event management. The possible consequences of landslides, debris flows and local erosion processes, sometimes associated with flash floods, were not considered at this stage of development of the prototype. They are limited in the Gard region but should be taken into account in future developments of the approach to implement it efficiently in other areas more exposed to these phenomena such as the Alpine area.

scholarly journals Post-event analysis and flash flood hydrology in Slovakia

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 304-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Silvia Kohnová ◽  
Marco Borga ◽  
Oliver Horvát ◽  
Pavel Šťastný ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Catchment Size ◽  
Flood Peaks

Abstract This work examines the main features of the flash flood regime in Central Europe as revealed by an analysis of flash floods that have occurred in Slovakia. The work is organized into the following two parts: The first part focuses on estimating the rainfall-runoff relationships for 3 major flash flood events, which were among the most severe events since 1998 and caused a loss of lives and a large amount of damage. The selected flash floods occurred on the 20th of July, 1998, in the Malá Svinka and Dubovický Creek basins; the 24th of July, 2001, at Štrbský Creek; and the 19th of June, 2004, at Turniansky Creek. The analysis aims to assess the flash flood peaks and rainfall-runoff properties by combining post-flood surveys and the application of hydrological and hydraulic post-event analyses. Next, a spatially-distributed hydrological model based on the availability of the raster information of the landscape’s topography, soil and vegetation properties, and rainfall data was used to simulate the runoff. The results from the application of the distributed hydrological model were used to analyse the consistency of the surveyed peak discharges with respect to the estimated rainfall properties and drainage basins. In the second part these data were combined with observations from flash flood events which were observed during the last 100 years and are focused on an analysis of the relationship between the flood peaks and the catchment area. The envelope curve was shown to exhibit a more pronounced decrease with the catchment size with respect to other flash flood relationships found in the Mediterranean region. The differences between the two relationships mainly reflect changes in the coverage of the storm sizes and hydrological characteristics between the two regions.

scholarly journals Study on the Early Warning and Forecasting of Flash Floods in Small Watersheds Based on the Rainfall Pattern of Risk Probability Combination

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Lu ◽  
Wenlin Yuan ◽  
Chengguo Su ◽  
Qianyu Gao ◽  
Denghua Yan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rainfall Pattern ◽  
Moisture Condition ◽  
Soil Moisture Condition ◽  
Small Watersheds ◽  
Rainfall Process ◽  
Risk Probability ◽  
Critical Rainfall

Abstract Flash floods cause great harm to people's life and property safety. Rainfall is one of the main causes of flash floods in small watersheds. The uncertainty of rainfall events results in inconsistency between the traditional single rainfall pattern and the actual rainfall process, which poses a great challenge for the early warning and forecasting of flash floods. This paper proposes a novel rainfall pattern based on total rainfall and peak rainfall intensity, i.e., the rainfall pattern of risk probability combination (RPRPC). To determine the joint distribution function with the best fitting effect, copula functions are introduced and optimized. On this basis, the HEC-HMS hydrological model is used to simulate the rainfall-runoff process, a trial algorithm is used to calculate the critical rainfall (CR), and an optimistic-general-pessimistic (O-G-P) early warning mode considering the decision maker's risk preference is proposed. The small watershed of Xinxian in Henan province, China, is taken as a case study for calculation. The results show that the RPRPC is feasible and closer to the actual rainfall process than the traditional rainfall pattern (TRP) and that the HEC-HMS model can be applied to small watersheds in hilly areas. Additionally, the influence of antecedent soil moisture condition (ASMC) and rainfall pattern on critical rainfall varies with the change of peak rainfall intensity and rainfall duration. Finally, the O-G-P early warning mode is effective and provides a valuable reference for the early warning and forecasting of flash floods in small watersheds in hilly areas.

A physically based distributed hydrological model of wadi system to simulate flash floods in arid regions

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Saber ◽  
Toshio Hamaguchi ◽  
Toshiharu Kojiri ◽  
Kenji Tanaka ◽  
Tetsuya Sumi
Keyword(s):  
Arid Regions ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Physically Based

scholarly journals Forecasting and Providing Warnings of Flash Floods for Ungauged Mountainous Areas Based on a Distributed Hydrological Model

Water ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 776 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yali Wang ◽  
Ronghua Liu ◽  
Liang Guo ◽  
Jiyang Tian ◽  
Xiaolei Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Mountainous Areas

scholarly journals The use of radar in hydrological modeling in the Czech Republic – case studies of flash floods

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Šálek ◽  
L. Brezková ◽  
P. Novák
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Severe Convection ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Precipitation Estimates

Abstract. Flash flood induced by severe convection is the hydrometeorological phenomenon that is very difficult to forecast. However, the implementation of radar measurements, especially radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE) and/or radar-based quantitative Precipitation Nowcast (QPN) can improve this situation. If the radar is able to capture the development of severe convection and can produce reasonably accurate QPE in short time intervals (e.g. 10 min), then it can be used also with hydrological model. A hydrological model named Hydrog was used for investigation of simulation and possible forecasts of two flash floods that took place in the Czech Republic in 2002 and 2003. The precipitation input consisted of mean-field-bias-adjusted or original radar 10-min estimates along with quantitative precipitation nowcasts up to 2 h based on COTREC method (extrapolation). Taking into account all the limited predictability of the severe convection development and the errors of the radar-based precipitation estimates, the aim of the simulations was to find out to what extend the hydrometeorological prediction system, specifically tuned for these events, was able to forecast a the flash floods. As assumed, the hydrometeorological simulations of the streamflow forecasts lagged behind the actual development but there is still some potential for successful warning, especially for areas where the flood hits lately.

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