Can the climate background of western North Pacific typhoon activity be predicted by climate model?

2008 ◽  
Vol 53 (15) ◽  
pp. 2392-2399 ◽  
Author(s):  
XianMei Lang ◽  
HuiJun Wang
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Background ◽  
Western North Pacific Typhoon

scholarly journals Present Simulation and Future Typhoon Activity Projection over Western North Pacific and Taiwan/East Coast of China in 20-km HiRAM Climate Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 687-703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chih-Hua Tsou ◽  
Pei-Yu Huang ◽  
Chia-Ying Tu ◽  
Cheng-Ta Chen ◽  
Teng-Ping Tzeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Present Simulation

scholarly journals Boreal Summer Synoptic-Scale Waves over the Western North Pacific in Multimodel Simulations

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (12) ◽  
pp. 4487-4508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haikun Zhao ◽  
Xianan Jiang ◽  
Liguang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Active Role ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Synoptic Scale

During boreal summer, vigorous synoptic-scale wave (SSW) activity, often evident as southeast–northwest-oriented wave trains, prevails over the western North Pacific (WNP). In spite of their active role for regional weather and climate, modeling studies on SSWs are rather limited. In this study, a comprehensive survey on climate model capability in representing the WNP SSWs is conducted by analyzing simulations from 27 recent general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that it is challenging for GCMs to realistically represent the observed SSWs. Only 2 models out of the 27 GCMs generally well simulate both the intensity and spatial pattern of the observed SSW mode. Plausible key processes for realistic simulations of SSW activity are further explored. It is illustrated that GCM skill in representing the spatial pattern of the SSW is highly correlated to its skill in simulating the summer mean patterns of the low-level convergence associated with the WNP monsoon trough and conversion from eddy available potential energy (EAPE) to eddy kinetic energy (EKE). Meanwhile, simulated SSW intensity is found to be significantly correlated to the amplitude of 850-hPa vorticity, divergence, and conversion from EAPE to EKE over the WNP. The observed modulations of SSW activity by the Madden–Julian oscillation are able to be captured in several model simulations.

Interpretation of Tropical Cyclone Forecast Sensitivity from the Singular Vector Perspective

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (11) ◽  
pp. 3383-3400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan-Huey Chen ◽  
Melinda S. Peng ◽  
Carolyn A. Reynolds ◽  
Chun-Chieh Wu
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Flow Region ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Adjoint Systems ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
New Finding ◽  
Typhoon Season ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Western North Pacific Typhoon

Abstract In this study, the leading singular vectors (SVs), which are the fastest-growing perturbations (in a linear sense) to a given forecast, are used to examine and classify the dynamic relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and synoptic-scale environmental features that influence their evolution. Based on the 72 two-day forecasts of the 18 western North Pacific TCs in 2006, the SVs are constructed to optimize perturbation energy within a 20° × 20° latitude–longitude box centered on the 48-h forecast position of the TCs using the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecast and adjoint systems. Composite techniques are employed to explore these relationships and highlight how the dominant synoptic-scale features that impact TC forecasts evolve on seasonal time scales. The NOGAPS initial SVs show several different patterns that highlight the relationship between the TC forecast sensitivity and the environment during the western North Pacific typhoon season in 2006. In addition to the relation of the SV maximum to the inward flow region of the TC, there are three patterns identified where the local SV maxima collocate with low-radial-wind-speed regions. These regions are likely caused by the confluence of the flow associated with the TC itself and the flow from other synoptic systems, such as the subtropical high and the midlatitude jet. This is the new finding beyond the previous NOGAPS SV results on TCs. The subseasonal variations of these patterns corresponding to the dynamic characteristics are discussed. The SV total energy vertical structures for the different composites are used to demonstrate the contributions from kinetic and potential energy components of different vertical levels at initial and final times.

scholarly journals Global Warming and Western North Pacific Typhoon Activity from an Observational Perspective

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 4590-4602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny C. L. Chan ◽  
Kin Sik Liu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract Based on results from climate model simulations, many researchers have suggested that because of global warming, the sea surface temperature (SST) will likely increase, which will then lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). This paper reports results of a study of the relationship between SST and observed typhoon activity (which is used as a proxy for the intensity of TCs averaged over a season) over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the past 40 yr. The average typhoon activity over a season is found to have no significant relationship with SST in the WNP but increases when the SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is above normal. The mean annual typhoon activity is generally higher (lower) during an El Niño (La Niña) year. Such interannual variations of typhoon activity appear to be largely constrained by the large-scale atmospheric factors that are closely related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors include low-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and moist static energy. Such results are shown to be physically consistent with one another and with those from previous studies on the interannual variations of TC activity. The results emphasize the danger of drawing conclusions about future TC intensity based on current climate model simulations that are not designed to make such predictions.

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