An evaluation of central Iran’s protected areas under different climate change scenarios (A Case on Markazi and Hamedan provinces)

Understanding the niche and habitat requirements of useful and threatened species, their shifts under climate change and how well protected areas (PAs) preserve these habitats is relevant for guiding sustainable management actions. Here we assessed the ecological factors underlying the distribution of two multipurpose and threatened species, Mimusops andongensis and M. kummel, in Benin, and potential changes in the suitable habitats covered by PAs, under climate change scenarios. Fifty seven occurrence points were collected for M. andongensis and 81 for M. kummel.

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Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Plant Species Manihot walkerae

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11060689 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 689

Author(s):

Gisel Garza ◽

Armida Rivera ◽

Crystian Sadiel Venegas Barrera ◽

José Guadalupe Martinez-Ávalos ◽

Jon Dale ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

General Circulation ◽

Private Property ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Endangered Plant ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The U.S

Walker’s Manihot, Manihot walkerae, is an endangered plant that is endemic to the Tamaulipan thornscrub ecoregion of extreme southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. M. walkerae populations are highly fragmented and are found on both protected public lands and private property. Habitat loss and competition by invasive species are the most detrimental threats for M. walkerae; however, the effect of climate change on M. walkerae’s geographic distribution remains unexplored and could result in further range restrictions. Our objectives are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of M. walkerae and assess the usefulness of natural protected areas in future conservation. We predict current and future geographic distribution for M. walkerae (years 2050 and 2070) using three different general circulation models (CM3, CMIP5, and HADGEM) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). A total of nineteen spatially rarefied occurrences for M. walkerae and ten non-highly correlated bioclimatic variables were inputted to the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to produce twenty replicates per scenario. The area under the curve (AUC) value for the consensus model was higher than 0.90 and the partial ROC value was higher than 1.80, indicating a high predictive ability. The potential reduction in geographic distribution for M. walkerae by the effect of climate change was variable throughout the models, but collectively they predict a restriction in distribution. The most severe reductions were 9% for the year 2050 with the CM3 model at an 8.5 RCP, and 14% for the year 2070 with the CMIP5 model at the 4.5 RCP. The future geographic distribution of M. walkerae was overlapped with protected lands in the U.S. and Mexico in order to identify areas that could be suitable for future conservation efforts. In the U.S. there are several protected areas that are potentially suitable for M. walkerae, whereas in Mexico no protected areas exist within M. walkerae suitable habitat.

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Fig. 5. The portion of Mimusops andongensis suitable areas covered by protected areas, under current (A) and future projections in 2050 under (B) CNRM-CM5 and (C) HadGEM2-ES model climates with scenario RCP8.5, and (D) CNRM-CM5 and (E) HadGEM2-ES model climates with scenario RCP4.5.

10.21504/rur.14406620 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gisèle K.Sinasson ◽

Charlie M. Shackleton ◽

Oscar Teka ◽

Brice Sinsin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Threatened Species ◽

Sustainable Management ◽

Ecological Factors ◽

Habitat Requirements ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Projections ◽

Management Actions ◽

Suitable Habitats

Understanding the niche and habitat requirements of useful and threatened species, their shifts under climate change and how well protected areas (PAs) preserve these habitats is relevant for guiding sustainable management actions. Here we assessed the ecological factors underlying the distribution of two multipurpose and threatened species, Mimusops andongensis and M. kummel, in Benin, and potential changes in the suitable habitats covered by PAs, under climate change scenarios. Fifty seven occurrence points were collected for M. andongensis and 81 for M. kummel.

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Vulnerability of Elevation-Restricted Endemic Birds of the Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) to Climate Change

10.1101/2020.09.11.293134 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Zhen Liu ◽

Luis Sandoval ◽

Lauren Sherman ◽

Andrew Wilson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Costa Rica ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Bird Species ◽

Population Monitoring ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Tropical Mountains ◽

Endemic Birds ◽

Community Science ◽

Cordillera De Talamanca

ABSTRACTAnimals endemic to tropical mountains are known to be especially vulnerable to climate change. The Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) is a geographically isolated mountain chain and global biodiversity hotspot, home to more than 50 endemic bird species. We used eBird community science observations to predict the distributions of a suite of 48 of these endemic birds in 2006-2015, and in 2070, under four climate change scenarios. Species distributions were predicted using program Maxent, incorporating elevation, satellite derived habitat data, and WorldClim climate variables. Model fit, as assessed by Area under the Receiver Operator Curve (AUC) was very high for most species, ranging from 0.877 to 0.992 (mean of 0.94). We found that most species are predicted to undergo range contractions by 2070, with a mean of 15% under modest climate change (RCP 2.6) up to a mean of 40% under more severe climate change (RCP 8.5). Most of the current ranges of these species are within existing protected areas (average of 59% in 2006-2015), and with prospective range contractions, the importance of these protected areas is forecast to increase. We suggest that these predicted range declines should elevate conservation concerns for this suite of species, and vigilance, in the form of better population monitoring, is urgently needed.

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Assessing potential effects of land use and climate change on mammal distributions in northern Thailand

Wildlife Research ◽

10.1071/wr14171 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 41 (6) ◽

pp. 522 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Yongyut Trisurat ◽

Budsabong Kanchanasaka ◽

Holger Kreft

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Species Richness ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Spatially Explicit ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Combined Effects ◽

Mammal Species ◽

Effects Of Land Use

Context Tropical ecosystems are widely recognised for their high species richness and outstanding concentrations of rare and endemic species. Previous studies either focussed on the effects of deforestation or climate change, whereas studies on the combined effects of these two major threats are limited. Aims This research aimed to model current and future distributions of medium- to large-sized mammal species on the basis of different land-use and climate-change scenarios in 2050 and to assess whether the predicted effects of land-use change are greater than those of climate change and whether the combined effects of these drivers are greater than those of either individual driver. Methods The present article demonstrates a method for combining nationwide wildlife-inventory data, spatially explicit species-distribution models, current and predicted future bioclimatic variables, other biophysical factors and human disturbance to map distributions of mammal species on the basis of different land-use and climate-change scenarios and to assess the role of protected areas in conservation planning. Key results Seventeen medium- to large-sized mammal species were selected for modelling. Most selected species were predicted to lose suitable habitat if the remaining forest cover declines from the current level of 57% to 50% in 2050. The predicted effects of deforestation were stronger than the effects of climate change. When climate and land-use change were combined, the predicted impacts were more severe. Most species would lose suitable habitat and the average shift in species distribution was greater than 40%. Conclusions The predicted effects were positive for only a few species and negative for most species. Current and future centres of mammal-species richness were predicted in large and contiguous protected forests and the average contribution of existing and proposed protected areas in protecting the focal species will increase from 73% to 80% across all scenarios. Implications The present research advances the current understanding of the ecology of 17 medium- to large-sized mammal species with conservation relevance and the factors that affect their distributions at the landscape scale. In addition, the research demonstrated that spatially explicit models and protected areas are effective means to contribute to protection of mammal species in current and future land-use and climate-change scenarios.

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Using spatial simulations of habitat modification for adaptive management of protected areas: Mediterranean grassland modification by woody plant encroachment

Environmental Conservation ◽

10.1017/s037689291300043x ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 41 (2) ◽

pp. 144-156 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

PAOLA MAIROTA ◽

VINCENZO LERONNI ◽

WEIMIN XI ◽

DAVID J. MLADENOFF ◽

HARINI NAGENDRA

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Management ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Habitat Modification ◽

Conservation Strategy ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Spatial Simulation ◽

Management Options ◽

Landscape Pattern Metrics ◽

Management Regimes

SUMMARYSpatial simulation may be used to model the potential effects of current biodiversity approaches on future habitat modification under differing climate change scenarios. To illustrate the approach, spatial simulation models, including landscape-level forest dynamics, were developed for a semi-natural grassland of conservation concern in a southern Italian protected area, which was exposed to woody vegetation encroachment. A forest landscape dynamics simulator (LANDIS-II) under conditions of climate change, current fire and alternative management regimes was used to develop scenario maps. Landscape pattern metrics provided data on fragmentation and habitat quality degradation, and quantified the spatial spread of different tree species within grassland habitats. The models indicated that approximately one-third of the grassland area would be impacted by loss, fragmentation and degradation in the next 150 years. Differing forest management regimes appear to influence the type of encroaching species and the density of encroaching vegetation. Habitat modifications are likely to affect species distribution and interactions, as well as local ecosystem functioning, leading to changes in estimated conservation value. A site-scale conservation strategy based on feasible integrated fire and forest management options is proposed, considering the debate on the effectiveness of protected areas for the conservation of ecosystem services in a changing climate. This needs to be tested through further modelling and scenario analysis, which would benefit from the enhancement of current modelling capabilities of LANDIS-II and from combination with remote sensing technologies, to provide early signals of environmental shifts both within and outside protected areas.

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Fig. 1. Current occurrence area of Mimusops kummel and Mimusops andongensis in Benin.

10.21504/rur.14406581 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gisèle K.Sinasson ◽

Charlie M. Shackleton ◽

Oscar Teka ◽

Brice Sinsin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Threatened Species ◽

Sustainable Management ◽

Ecological Factors ◽

Habitat Requirements ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Management Actions ◽

Suitable Habitats

Understanding the niche and habitat requirements of useful and threatened species, their shifts under climate change and how well protected areas (PAs) preserve these habitats is relevant for guiding sustainable management actions. Here we assessed the ecological factors underlying the distribution of two multipurpose and threatened species, Mimusops andongensis and M. kummel, in Benin, and potential changes in the suitable habitats covered by PAs, under climate change scenarios. Fifty seven occurrence points were collected for M. andongensis and 81 for M. kummel.

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Fig. 6. The portion of Mimusops kummel suitable areas covered by protected areas, under current (A) and future projections in 2050 under (B) CNRM-CM5 and (C) HadGEM2-ES model climates with scenario RCP8.5, and (D) CNRM-CM5 and (E) HadGEM2-ES model climates with scenario RCP4.5.

10.21504/rur.14406629.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gisèle K.Sinasson ◽

Charlie M. Shackleton ◽

Oscar Teka ◽

Brice Sinsin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Threatened Species ◽

Sustainable Management ◽

Ecological Factors ◽

Habitat Requirements ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Projections ◽

Management Actions ◽

Suitable Habitats

Understanding the niche and habitat requirements of useful and threatened species, their shifts under climate change and how well protected areas (PAs) preserve these habitats is relevant for guiding sustainable management actions. Here we assessed the ecological factors underlying the distribution of two multipurpose and threatened species, Mimusops andongensis and M. kummel, in Benin, and potential changes in the suitable habitats covered by PAs, under climate change scenarios. Fifty seven occurrence points were collected for M. andongensis and 81 for M. kummel.

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Fig. 3. Distribution predictions of Mimusops andongensis under current (A) and future projections in 2050 under (B) CNRM-CM5 and (C) HadGEM2-ES model climates with scenario RCP8.5, and (D) CNRM-CM5 and (E) HadGEM2-ES model climates with scenario RCP4.5.

10.21504/rur.14406599 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gisèle K.Sinasson ◽

Charlie M. Shackleton ◽

Oscar Teka ◽

Brice Sinsin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Threatened Species ◽

Sustainable Management ◽

Ecological Factors ◽

Habitat Requirements ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Projections ◽

Management Actions ◽

Suitable Habitats

Understanding the niche and habitat requirements of useful and threatened species, their shifts under climate change and how well protected areas (PAs) preserve these habitats is relevant for guiding sustainable management actions. Here we assessed the ecological factors underlying the distribution of two multipurpose and threatened species, Mimusops andongensis and M. kummel, in Benin, and potential changes in the suitable habitats covered by PAs, under climate change scenarios. Fifty seven occurrence points were collected for M. andongensis and 81 for M. kummel.

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A process to support species conservation planning and climate change readiness in protected areas

10.7287/peerj.preprints.492v1 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Nicole Angeli ◽

Javier Otegui ◽

Margot Wood ◽

Emma P. Gomez-Ruiz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Conservation Planning ◽

Species Interactions ◽

Species Range ◽

Range Shifts ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Climate Scenarios

Global change will causes species range shifts, affecting species interactions. The conservation implications of species range shifts are widely unknown. Through forming an ecology-bioinformatics partnership at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center-Encyclopedia of Life-Biodiversity Heritage Library Research Sprint, we developed an analytical pipeline to test whether global trends are forcing shifts of mutually dependent species in different spatial directions. We calculated potential overlap between dependent species across climate scenarios within protected areas. We selected the Great Green Macaw (Ara ambiguus) and its nesting host tree the Giant Almendro (Dipteryx panamensis) as a proof-of-concept species pair that will be affected by range shifts. We demonstrate with modeling that the Great Green Macaw will lose approximately 64.0% of suitable habitat in future scenarios, while the Giant Almendro will lose 59.7% of suitable habitat. Species habitat overlaps across 85.3 % of its currently predicted distribution and 69.07% of the remaining habitat predicted in future scenarios. After accounting for spatially explicit protected areas networks, only 20.3% and 40.2 % of remaining habitat persists within protected areas across climate scenarios for the Almendro and Macaw, respectively, and 19.9 % of that habitat overlaps between the species. Currently, we are conducting a literature review to select and expand our list of species for use in the pipeline to detect trends for climate readiness planning in protected areas networks. The analytical pipeline will produce habitat suitability maps for multiple climate scenarios based on current distributions, and these maps will potentially be embedded into the Encyclopedia of Life as free, downloadable files. This is just one of several broader impact products from the research. This work demonstrates that modeling the future distribution of species is limited by biotic interactions and conservation planning should account for climate change scenarios.

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