scholarly journals Vulnerability of Elevation-Restricted Endemic Birds of the Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) to Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Liu ◽  
Luis Sandoval ◽  
Lauren Sherman ◽  
Andrew Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Population Monitoring ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Tropical Mountains ◽  
Endemic Birds ◽  
Community Science ◽  
Cordillera De Talamanca

ABSTRACTAnimals endemic to tropical mountains are known to be especially vulnerable to climate change. The Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) is a geographically isolated mountain chain and global biodiversity hotspot, home to more than 50 endemic bird species. We used eBird community science observations to predict the distributions of a suite of 48 of these endemic birds in 2006-2015, and in 2070, under four climate change scenarios. Species distributions were predicted using program Maxent, incorporating elevation, satellite derived habitat data, and WorldClim climate variables. Model fit, as assessed by Area under the Receiver Operator Curve (AUC) was very high for most species, ranging from 0.877 to 0.992 (mean of 0.94). We found that most species are predicted to undergo range contractions by 2070, with a mean of 15% under modest climate change (RCP 2.6) up to a mean of 40% under more severe climate change (RCP 8.5). Most of the current ranges of these species are within existing protected areas (average of 59% in 2006-2015), and with prospective range contractions, the importance of these protected areas is forecast to increase. We suggest that these predicted range declines should elevate conservation concerns for this suite of species, and vigilance, in the form of better population monitoring, is urgently needed.

Ecological patterns and effectiveness of protected areas in the preservation of Mimusops species’ habitats under climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gisèle K. Sinasson ◽  
Charlie M. Shackleton ◽  
Oscar Teka ◽  
Brice Sinsin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Threatened Species ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Habitat Requirements ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Ecological Patterns ◽  
Suitable Habitats

<p>Understanding the niche and habitat requirements of useful and threatened species, their shifts under climate change and how well protected areas (PAs) preserve these habitats is relevant for guiding sustainable management actions. Here we assessed the ecological factors underlying the distribution of two multipurpose and threatened species, <i>Mimusops andongensis</i> and <i>M</i>. <i>kummel</i>, in Benin, and potential changes in the suitable habitats covered by PAs, under climate change scenarios. Fifty seven occurrence points were collected for <i>M</i>. <i>andongensis</i> and 81 for <i>M</i>. <i>kummel</i>. </p>

scholarly journals Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Plant Species Manihot walkerae

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
Gisel Garza ◽  
Armida Rivera ◽  
Crystian Sadiel Venegas Barrera ◽  
José Guadalupe Martinez-Ávalos ◽  
Jon Dale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Private Property ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Endangered Plant ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The U.S

Walker’s Manihot, Manihot walkerae, is an endangered plant that is endemic to the Tamaulipan thornscrub ecoregion of extreme southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. M. walkerae populations are highly fragmented and are found on both protected public lands and private property. Habitat loss and competition by invasive species are the most detrimental threats for M. walkerae; however, the effect of climate change on M. walkerae’s geographic distribution remains unexplored and could result in further range restrictions. Our objectives are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of M. walkerae and assess the usefulness of natural protected areas in future conservation. We predict current and future geographic distribution for M. walkerae (years 2050 and 2070) using three different general circulation models (CM3, CMIP5, and HADGEM) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). A total of nineteen spatially rarefied occurrences for M. walkerae and ten non-highly correlated bioclimatic variables were inputted to the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to produce twenty replicates per scenario. The area under the curve (AUC) value for the consensus model was higher than 0.90 and the partial ROC value was higher than 1.80, indicating a high predictive ability. The potential reduction in geographic distribution for M. walkerae by the effect of climate change was variable throughout the models, but collectively they predict a restriction in distribution. The most severe reductions were 9% for the year 2050 with the CM3 model at an 8.5 RCP, and 14% for the year 2070 with the CMIP5 model at the 4.5 RCP. The future geographic distribution of M. walkerae was overlapped with protected lands in the U.S. and Mexico in order to identify areas that could be suitable for future conservation efforts. In the U.S. there are several protected areas that are potentially suitable for M. walkerae, whereas in Mexico no protected areas exist within M. walkerae suitable habitat.

scholarly journals Precipitation and Temperature in Costa Rica at the End of the Century Based on NEX-GDDP Projected Scenarios

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1323
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Castillo ◽  
Jorge A. Amador
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Temperature Range ◽  
Past Data ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

The evaluation of intraseasonal, seasonal, and annual variability of rainfall and temperature extremes, while using climate change scenarios data, is extremely important for socio-economic activities, such as water resources management. Costa Rica, a climate change hotspot, is largely dependent on rainfall for socioeconomic activities; hence, the relevance of this study. Based on the NEX-GDDP, rainfall and temperature range were analyzed for Costa Rica at the end of the century (2070–2099), while using 1970–1999 as a baseline for six available meteorological stations. Differences between the multimodel ensembles of two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and the historical information were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion region for climate change impacts in Central America, for which projected scenarios suggest an early onset of the rainy season, and a decline in the mid-summer drought (MSD) minimum. The assessment of model data in some regions of Costa Rica, for which historical data were available, suggests that the latter does not capture a well-known regional climate feature, the MSD, in both precipitation and temperature range well. The availability of observed past data sources is a major limitation of this research; however, with the station data used, it is still possible to draw some conclusions regarding future climate in some regions of Costa Rica, especially in the northwest side of the country, where past data are consistent with model information, providing a more reliable picture of changes in climate there that has potential implications for socioeconomic sectors.

scholarly journals Fig. 5. The portion of Mimusops andongensis suitable areas covered by protected areas, under current (A) and future projections in 2050 under (B) CNRM-CM5 and (C) HadGEM2-ES model climates with scenario RCP8.5, and (D) CNRM-CM5 and (E) HadGEM2-ES model climates with scenario RCP4.5.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gisèle K.Sinasson ◽  
Charlie M. Shackleton ◽  
Oscar Teka ◽  
Brice Sinsin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Threatened Species ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Habitat Requirements ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Suitable Habitats

<p>Understanding the niche and habitat requirements of useful and threatened species, their shifts under climate change and how well protected areas (PAs) preserve these habitats is relevant for guiding sustainable management actions. Here we assessed the ecological factors underlying the distribution of two multipurpose and threatened species, <i>Mimusops andongensis</i> and <i>M</i>. <i>kummel</i>, in Benin, and potential changes in the suitable habitats covered by PAs, under climate change scenarios. Fifty seven occurrence points were collected for <i>M</i>. <i>andongensis</i> and 81 for <i>M</i>. <i>kummel</i>. </p>

Projected climate change impacts on tropical life zones in Costa Rica

2021 ◽  
pp. 030913332110470
Author(s):  
Christian Birkel ◽  
Joni Dehaspe ◽  
Andrés Chavarría-Palma ◽  
Nelson Venegas-Cordero ◽  
Rene Capell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Costa Rican ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Biological Corridors ◽  
Ecosystem Indicators ◽  
Near Future

Efforts to protect tropical ecosystems aim at implementing biological corridors across the national territory of Costa Rica. However, potential near-future climate change challenges the effectiveness of such conservation measures. For this purpose, we developed near-future climate change scenarios at high spatial resolution using open-access global data from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS). These projections resulted from downscaling (to a 1km2 national grid) and quantile-mapping bias-correction of the Essential Climate Variables Global Circulation Model (ECV_GCM) ensemble mean from the CDS using a moderate Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Projections were evaluated with limited local station data and applied to generate future ecosystem indicators (Holdridge Life Zones, HLZs). We show significantly increasing temperatures of 2.6°C with a spatial variability of ± 0.4°C for Costa Rica until 2040 with local differences (higher temperatures projected for the southern Costa Rican Caribbean). The future mean annual precipitation showed slightly wetter conditions (120 ± 43 mm/year) and most prominently in the Costa Rican Caribbean and south Pacific, but no significant drying in the north of Costa Rica by 2040. The bias-corrected climate data were aggregated to decadal and 30-year average (1971–2040) life zone ecosystem indicators that could potentially show ecosystem shifts. Changes in the life zones are most likely due to warmer temperatures and to a lesser extent caused by projected wetter conditions. Shifts are more likely to occur at higher elevations with a potential loss of the sub-tropical rainforest ecosystem. The projections support diminishing tropical dry forests and slightly increasing tropical rain and wet forests in the biological corridors of the driest and wettest regions, respectively. A countrywide spatial uniformity of dominating tropical moist forests (increase from 24% to 49%) at the expense of other HLZs was projected by 2040.

scholarly journals Towards Modelling Future Trends of Quebec’s Boreal Birds’ Species Distribution under Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 335
Author(s):  
Jonathan Gaudreau ◽  
Liliana Perez ◽  
Saeed Harati
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Species Abundance ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

Adaptation to climate change requires prediction of its impacts, especially on ecosystems. In this work we simulated the change in bird species richness in the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada, under climate change scenarios. To do so, we first analyzed which geographical and bioclimatic variables were the strongest predictors for the spatial distribution of the current resident bird species. Based on canonical redundancy analysis and analysis of variance, we found that annual temperature range, average temperature of the cold season, seasonality of precipitation, precipitation in the wettest season, elevation, and local percentage of wet area had the strongest influence on the species’ distributions. We used these variables with Random Forests, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Maximum Entropy models to explain spatial variations in species abundance. Future species distributions were calculated by replacing present climatic variables with projections under different climate change pathways. Subsequently, maps of species richness change were produced. The results showed a northward expansion of areas of highest species richness towards the center of the province. Species are also likely to appear near James Bay and Ungava Bay, where rapid climate change is expected.

Assessing potential effects of land use and climate change on mammal distributions in northern Thailand

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongyut Trisurat ◽  
Budsabong Kanchanasaka ◽  
Holger Kreft
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Combined Effects ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Effects Of Land Use

Context Tropical ecosystems are widely recognised for their high species richness and outstanding concentrations of rare and endemic species. Previous studies either focussed on the effects of deforestation or climate change, whereas studies on the combined effects of these two major threats are limited. Aims This research aimed to model current and future distributions of medium- to large-sized mammal species on the basis of different land-use and climate-change scenarios in 2050 and to assess whether the predicted effects of land-use change are greater than those of climate change and whether the combined effects of these drivers are greater than those of either individual driver. Methods The present article demonstrates a method for combining nationwide wildlife-inventory data, spatially explicit species-distribution models, current and predicted future bioclimatic variables, other biophysical factors and human disturbance to map distributions of mammal species on the basis of different land-use and climate-change scenarios and to assess the role of protected areas in conservation planning. Key results Seventeen medium- to large-sized mammal species were selected for modelling. Most selected species were predicted to lose suitable habitat if the remaining forest cover declines from the current level of 57% to 50% in 2050. The predicted effects of deforestation were stronger than the effects of climate change. When climate and land-use change were combined, the predicted impacts were more severe. Most species would lose suitable habitat and the average shift in species distribution was greater than 40%. Conclusions The predicted effects were positive for only a few species and negative for most species. Current and future centres of mammal-species richness were predicted in large and contiguous protected forests and the average contribution of existing and proposed protected areas in protecting the focal species will increase from 73% to 80% across all scenarios. Implications The present research advances the current understanding of the ecology of 17 medium- to large-sized mammal species with conservation relevance and the factors that affect their distributions at the landscape scale. In addition, the research demonstrated that spatially explicit models and protected areas are effective means to contribute to protection of mammal species in current and future land-use and climate-change scenarios.

Using spatial simulations of habitat modification for adaptive management of protected areas: Mediterranean grassland modification by woody plant encroachment

2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
PAOLA MAIROTA ◽  
VINCENZO LERONNI ◽  
WEIMIN XI ◽  
DAVID J. MLADENOFF ◽  
HARINI NAGENDRA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Habitat Modification ◽  
Conservation Strategy ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Spatial Simulation ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Landscape Pattern Metrics ◽  
Management Regimes

SUMMARYSpatial simulation may be used to model the potential effects of current biodiversity approaches on future habitat modification under differing climate change scenarios. To illustrate the approach, spatial simulation models, including landscape-level forest dynamics, were developed for a semi-natural grassland of conservation concern in a southern Italian protected area, which was exposed to woody vegetation encroachment. A forest landscape dynamics simulator (LANDIS-II) under conditions of climate change, current fire and alternative management regimes was used to develop scenario maps. Landscape pattern metrics provided data on fragmentation and habitat quality degradation, and quantified the spatial spread of different tree species within grassland habitats. The models indicated that approximately one-third of the grassland area would be impacted by loss, fragmentation and degradation in the next 150 years. Differing forest management regimes appear to influence the type of encroaching species and the density of encroaching vegetation. Habitat modifications are likely to affect species distribution and interactions, as well as local ecosystem functioning, leading to changes in estimated conservation value. A site-scale conservation strategy based on feasible integrated fire and forest management options is proposed, considering the debate on the effectiveness of protected areas for the conservation of ecosystem services in a changing climate. This needs to be tested through further modelling and scenario analysis, which would benefit from the enhancement of current modelling capabilities of LANDIS-II and from combination with remote sensing technologies, to provide early signals of environmental shifts both within and outside protected areas.

scholarly journals Role of Maximum Entropy and Citizen Science to Study Habitat Suitability of Jacobin Cuckoo in Different Climate Change Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 463
Author(s):  
Priyanka Singh ◽  
Sameer Saran ◽  
Sultan Kocaman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Recent advancements in spatial modelling and mapping methods have opened up new horizons for monitoring the migration of bird species, which have been altered due to the climate change. The rise of citizen science has also aided the spatiotemporal data collection with associated attributes. The biodiversity data from citizen observatories can be employed in machine learning algorithms for predicting suitable environmental conditions for species’ survival and their future migration behaviours. In this study, different environmental variables effective in birds’ migrations were analysed, and their habitat suitability was assessed for future understanding of their responses in different climate change scenarios. The Jacobin cuckoo (Clamator jacobinus) was selected as the subject species, since their arrival to India has been traditionally considered as a sign for the start of the Indian monsoon season. For suitability predictions in current and future scenarios, maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling was carried out with environmental variables and species occurrences observed in India and Africa. For modelling, the correlation test was performed on the environmental variables (bioclimatic, precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, wind and elevation). The results showed that precipitation-related variables played a significant role in suitability, and through reclassified habitat suitability maps, it was observed that the suitable areas of India and Africa might decrease in future climatic scenarios (SSPs 2.6, 4.5, 7.0 and 8.5) of 2030 and 2050. In addition, the suitability and unsuitability areas were calculated (in km2) to observe the subtle changes in the ecosystem. Such climate change studies can support biodiversity research and improve the agricultural economy.

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