Forest transition and urban growth: exploring latent dynamics (1936–2006) in Rome, Italy, using a geographically weighted regression and implications for coastal forest conservation

2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (S3) ◽  
pp. 577-585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Salvati ◽  
Rita Biasi ◽  
Margherita Carlucci ◽  
Agostino Ferrara
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
Forest Conservation ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
Forest Transition ◽  
Coastal Forest

scholarly journals Integrating Spatial Markov Chains and Geographically Weighted Regression-Based Cellular Automata to Simulate Urban Agglomeration Growth: A Case Study of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 633
Author(s):  
Yabo Zhao ◽  
Dixiang Xie ◽  
Xiwen Zhang ◽  
Shifa Ma
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
Spatial Organization ◽  
Urban Agglomeration ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
Bay Area

Urban agglomeration is an important spatial organization mode in China’s attempts to attain an advanced (mature) stage of urbanization, and to understand its consequences, accurate simulation scenarios are needed. Compared to traditional urban growth simulations, which operate on the scale of a single city, urban agglomeration considers interactions among multiple cities. In this study, we combined a spatial Markov chain (SMC) (a quantitative composition module) with geographically weighted regression-based cellular automata (GWRCA) (a spatial allocation module) to predict urban growth in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), an internationally important urban agglomeration in southern China. The SMC method improves on the traditional Markov chain technique by taking into account the interaction and influence between each city to predict growth quantitatively, whereas the geographically weighted regression (GWR) gives an empirical estimate of urban growth suitability based on geospatial differentiation on the scale of an urban agglomeration. Using the SMC model to forecast growth in the GBA in the year 2050, our results indicated that the rate of smaller cities will increase, while that of larger cities will slow down. The coastal belt in the core areas of the GBA as well as the region’s peripheral cities are most likely to be areas of development by 2050, while established cities such as Shenzhen and Dongguan will no longer experience rapid expansion. Compared with traditional simulation models, the SMC-GWRCA was able to consider spatiotemporal interactions among cities when forecasting changes to a large region like the GBA. This study put forward a development scenario for the GBA for 2050 on the scale of an urban agglomeration to provide a more credible scenario for spatial planning. It also provided evidence in support of using integrated SMC-GWRCA models, which, we maintain, offer a more efficient approach for simulating urban agglomeration development than do traditional methods.

scholarly journals Modeling spatial determinates of teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia; geographically weighted regression

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seblewongel Tigabu ◽  
Alemneh Mekuriaw Liyew ◽  
Bisrat Misganaw Geremew
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
Teenage Pregnancy ◽  
Wealth Quintile ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
Contraceptive Methods ◽  
Hotspot Analysis ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Risk Areas

Abstract Background In developing countries, 20,000 under 18 children give birth every day. In Ethiopia, teenage pregnancy is high with Afar and Somalia regions having the largest share. Even though teenage pregnancy has bad maternal and child health consequences, to date there is limited evidence on its spatial distribution and driving factors. Therefore, this study is aimed to assess the spatial distribution and spatial determinates of teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia. Methods A secondary data analysis was conducted using 2016 EDHS data. A total weighted sample of 3381 teenagers was included. The spatial clustering of teenage pregnancy was priorly explored by using hotspot analysis and spatial scanning statistics to indicate geographical risk areas of teenage pregnancy. Besides spatial modeling was conducted by applying Ordinary least squares regression and geographically weighted regression to determine factors explaining the geographic variation of teenage pregnancy. Result Based on the findings of exploratory analysis the high-risk areas of teenage pregnancy were observed in the Somali, Afar, Oromia, and Hareri regions. Women with primary education, being in the household with a poorer wealth quintile using none of the contraceptive methods and using traditional contraceptive methods were significant spatial determinates of the spatial variation of teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia. Conclusion geographic areas where a high proportion of women didn’t use any type of contraceptive methods, use traditional contraceptive methods, and from households with poor wealth quintile had increased risk of teenage pregnancy. Whereas, those areas with a higher proportion of women with secondary education had a decreased risk of teenage pregnancy. The detailed maps of hotspots of teenage pregnancy and its predictors had supreme importance to policymakers for the design and implementation of adolescent targeted programs.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics and Driving Forces of PM2.5 in Three Urban Agglomerations of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2222
Author(s):  
Jin-Wei Yan ◽  
Fei Tao ◽  
Shuai-Qian Zhang ◽  
Shuang Lin ◽  
Tong Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
National Level ◽  
National Development ◽  
Urban Agglomeration ◽  
Spatiotemporal Distribution ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Urban Agglomerations

As part of one of the five major national development strategies, the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), including the three national-level urban agglomerations (the Cheng-Yu urban agglomeration (CY-UA), the Yangtze River Middle-Reach urban agglomeration (YRMR-UA), and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRD-UA)), plays an important role in China’s urban development and economic construction. However, the rapid economic growth of the past decades has caused frequent regional air pollution incidents, as indicated by high levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Therefore, a driving force factor analysis based on the PM2.5 of the whole area would provide more information. This paper focuses on the three urban agglomerations in the YREB and uses exploratory data analysis and geostatistics methods to describe the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of air quality based on long-term PM2.5 series data from 2015 to 2018. First, the main driving factor of the spatial stratified heterogeneity of PM2.5 was determined through the Geodetector model, and then the influence mechanism of the factors with strong explanatory power was extrapolated using the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) models. The results showed that the number of enterprises, social public vehicles, total precipitation, wind speed, and green coverage in the built-up area had the most significant impacts on the distribution of PM2.5. The regression by MGWR was found to be more efficient than that by traditional Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), further showing that the main factors varied significantly among the three urban agglomerations in affecting the special and temporal features.

scholarly journals Fiscal decentralization analysis that affect economic performance using geographically weighted regression (GWR)

2021 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 399-406
Author(s):  
Syarifah Diana Permai ◽  
Ardelia Christina ◽  
Alexander Agung Santoso Gunawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
Fiscal Decentralization ◽  
Weighted Regression

Number of flood disaster estimation in Indonesia using local linear and geographically weighted regression approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto ◽  
Sediono ◽  
Novia Anggita Aprilianti ◽  
Belindha Ayu Ardhani ◽  
Rizka Firdaus Rahmadina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
Flood Disaster ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
Local Linear ◽  
Regression Approach

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Changes in Vegetation Cover and Its Influencing Factors in the Loess Plateau of China Based on the Geographically Weighted Regression Model

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 673
Author(s):  
Chen Yang ◽  
Meichen Fu ◽  
Dingrao Feng ◽  
Yiyu Sun ◽  
Guohui Zhai
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
Vegetation Coverage ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression Model ◽  
Spatiotemporal Changes

Vegetation plays a key role in ecosystem regulation and influences our capacity for sustainable development. Global vegetation cover has changed dramatically over the past decades in response to both natural and anthropogenic factors; therefore, it is necessary to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation cover and its influencing factors. Moreover, ecological engineering projects, such as the “Grain for Green” project implemented in 1999, have been introduced to improve the ecological environment by enhancing forest coverage. In our study, we analyzed the changes in vegetation cover across the Loess Plateau of China and the impacts of influencing factors. First, we analyzed the latitudinal and longitudinal changes in vegetation coverage. Second, we displayed the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation cover based on Theil-Sen slope analysis and the Mann-Kendall test. Third, the Hurst exponent was used to predict future changes in vegetation coverage. Fourth, we assessed the relationship between vegetation cover and the influence of individual factors. Finally, ordinary least squares regression and the geographically weighted regression model were used to investigate the influence of various factors on vegetation cover. We found that the Loess Plateau showed large-scale greening from 2000 to 2015, though some regions showed decreasing vegetation cover. Latitudinal and longitudinal changes in vegetation coverage presented a net increase. Moreover, some areas of the Loess Plateau are at risk of degradation in the future, but most areas showed a sustainable increase in vegetation cover. Temperature, precipitation, gross domestic product (GDP), slope, cropland percentage, forest percentage, and built-up land percentage displayed different relationships with vegetation cover. Geographically weighted regression model revealed that GDP, temperature, precipitation, forest percentage, cropland percentage, built-up land percentage, and slope significantly influenced (p < 0.05) vegetation cover in 2000. In comparison, precipitation, forest percentage, cropland percentage, and built-up land percentage significantly affected (p < 0.05) vegetation cover in 2015. Our results enhance our understanding of the ecological and environmental changes in the Loess Plateau.

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