Forestry or the strategy of muddling-through (essay)
The claim of foresters to steer and manage forests in the long term (“sustainability strategy”) is in striking contrast to the indication that our forests present themselves, in effect, as a multiform conglomerate of planned and unforeseen, expected and accidental features. If one accepts the fact that the future is generally unknown and our images of the future are mere fiction, stemming from experiences and knowledge from the past, a comparative view on forest sciences and practice shows how differently both realms deal with uncertainty regarding the future. In the sciences, working with future models has become an established approach: based upon various suppositions and simplifications, they first and foremost inform about established, basic assumptions and expectations instead of leading to reliable prognoses. In contrast, long-term decision making in practical forest management is informed by the experience that the future will prove “different” and unexpected. Hence, the principle of sustainability cannot be based on a long-term strategy, but is characterized by a permanent process of intelligent muddling-through.
Dengue epidemiology and pathogenesis: images of the future viewed through a mirror of the past
