scholarly journals Application of Mathematical Modeling in Prediction of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali AlArjani ◽  
Md Taufiq Nasseef ◽  
Sanaa M. Kamal ◽  
B. V. Subba Rao ◽  
Mufti Mahmud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
New Disease ◽  
Intrinsic Properties ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Entire World ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractThe entire world has been affected by the outbreak of COVID-19 since early 2020. Human carriers are largely the spreaders of this new disease, and it spreads much faster compared to previously identified coronaviruses and other flu viruses. Although vaccines have been invented and released, it will still be a challenge to overcome this disease. To save lives, it is important to better understand how the virus is transmitted from one host to another and how future areas of infection can be predicted. Recently, the second wave of infection has hit multiple countries, and governments have implemented necessary measures to tackle the spread of the virus. We investigated the three phases of COVID-19 research through a selected list of mathematical modeling articles. To take the necessary measures, it is important to understand the transmission dynamics of the disease, and mathematical modeling has been considered a proven technique in predicting such dynamics. To this end, this paper summarizes all the available mathematical models that have been used in predicting the transmission of COVID-19. A total of nine mathematical models have been thoroughly reviewed and characterized in this work, so as to understand the intrinsic properties of each model in predicting disease transmission dynamics. The application of these nine models in predicting COVID-19 transmission dynamics is presented with a case study, along with detailed comparisons of these models. Toward the end of the paper, key behavioral properties of each model, relevant challenges and future directions are discussed.

scholarly journals The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudarat Chadsuthi ◽  
Karine Chalvet-Monfray ◽  
Anuwat Wiratsudakul ◽  
Charin Modchang
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Public Education ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Multiplication Rate ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Transmission Models

AbstractThe epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.

scholarly journals Estimasi Reproduction Number Model Matematika Penyebaran Malaria di Sumba Tengah, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Ervin Mawo Banni ◽  
Maria A Kleden ◽  
Maria Lobo ◽  
Meksianis Zadrak Ndii
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Health Center ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Awareness Program ◽  
Awareness Programs ◽  
Malaria Eradication

Malaria is transmitted via a bite of mosquitoes and it is dangerous if it is not properly treated. Mathematical modeling can be formulated to understand the disease transmission dynamics. In this paper, a mathematical model with an awareness program has been formulated and the reproduction number has been estimated against the data from Weeluri Health Center, Mamboro District, Central Sumba. The calculation showed that the reproduction number is R0 = 1.2562. Results showed that if the efficacy of the awareness program is lower than 20%, the reproduction number is still above unity. If the efficacy of the awareness program is higher than 20%, the reproduction number is lower than unity. This implies that the efficacy of awareness programs is the key to the success of Malaria eradication.

Learn to Integrate Mathematical Models in Human Performance Modeling

2017 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 776-780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiqi Zhang ◽  
Changxu Wu
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Human Performance ◽  
Performance Modeling ◽  
Model Integration ◽  
Braking Performance ◽  
Research Gap ◽  
Warning Response

The current paper provided a tutorial of the integration of mathematical models in human performance modeling. It introduced the unique features of mathematical modeling in human performance, and the steps in mathematical model integration, including how the literature of models was reviewed, how a research gap was identified, and how a mathematical model was developed and integrated based on existing models, and how a model was validated via an experimental study. A case study was presented by following each step to illustrate the integration of several existing models to derive a new model of drivers’ braking performance in warning response with its integration with the existing mathematical models of driver speed control in normal situations and the model of humans’ warning response time. This is the first tutorial work that provided a detailed explanation of the steps in mathematical model integration with a case study in human performance modeling. It could be used as guidance for human factors professionals to learn the mathematical modeling approaches and will benefit the field of human performance modeling.

scholarly journals Corrigendum to “Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan” [Chaos Solitons Fractals 135 (2020), 109846]

2020 ◽  
Vol 141 ◽  
pp. 110311
Author(s):  
Faïçal Ndaïrou ◽  
Iván Area ◽  
Georg Bader ◽  
Juan J. Nieto ◽  
Delfim F.M. Torres
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Transmission Dynamics

scholarly journals Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan

2020 ◽  
Vol 135 ◽  
pp. 109846 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faïçal Ndaïrou ◽  
Iván Area ◽  
Juan J. Nieto ◽  
Delfim F.M. Torres
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Transmission Dynamics

OCULAR TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION: A MATHEMATICAL PERSPECTIVE

2009 ◽  
Vol 09 (02) ◽  
pp. 199-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. H. OOI ◽  
E. Y. K. NG
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Temperature Distribution ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Temperature Measurement ◽  
Viable Alternative ◽  
Ir Thermography ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Ocular Temperature

Mathematical modeling has proven to be a viable alternative for investigating the temperature distribution inside the human eye. This is due to its ability to overcome the limitations infrared (IR) thermography; the leading method in ocular temperature measurement. A wide range of mathematical studies on the ocular temperature distribution during various conditions have been published in the literature. In this paper, we carry out an in-depth review of the various mathematical models of the eye that have been developed in the past. Various problems and the implications from the mathematical predictions of these studies are discussed. The future directions of studies in ocular temperature distribution are deliberated.

Host–Pathogen Evolution and Coevolution in Avian Systems

2021 ◽  
pp. 77-98
Author(s):  
Camille Bonneaud
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Phenotypic Change ◽  
Avian Host ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Pathogen Evolution ◽  
Host Pathogen ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
Mechanistic Basis

The significance of studying birds and their pathogens goes far beyond the applied conservation or epidemiological implications of their interactions. Evidence suggests that avian host–pathogen systems can be used to test fundamental theoretical predictions about adaptive evolution and coevolution in natural populations. This chapter highlights recent advances in the field of bird–pathogen evolution and coevolution, how these advances have come about, and future directions of research. Further, it shows that, while there is a growing body of work that provides support for both avian host and pathogen evolution, evidence for their antagonistic coevolution, the process of adaptation and counter-adaptation in response to the reciprocal selection pressures that they impose on each other, remains rare. Rigorously demonstrating the processes of evolution and coevolution is complex in natural populations and doing so necessarily requires borrowing methodological approaches from a range of disciplines to fully characterize phenotypic change, its genetic and mechanistic basis, as well as its adaptive benefits. Overcoming the challenge of such a task will, however, generate important insights into a range of processes, from disease transmission dynamics and pathogenesis to the maintenance of biodiversity.

scholarly journals Strategies to mitigate the risk from COVID-19 in ophthalmology

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Poostchi ◽  
Joanna K. Dereń
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Quality Care ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Hierarchical Approach ◽  
High Quality ◽  
New Ways Of Working ◽  
Medical Sector ◽  
Essential Services ◽  
Risk Of Disease ◽  
Second Wave

Many countries, including Poland, are currently dealing with a second wave of COVID-19 infections. There is a pressing need to adapt to the new reality and develop new ways of working in order to deliver essential services safely. In the medical sector, there is a special need to deliver uninterrupted high quality care while minimising the risk of disease transmission. In this article, we summarise the evidence on the transmission dynamics and ophthalmic features of COVID-19 and suggest a hierarchical approach to infection control, in order to help practitioners understand and mitigate the risks they face each day.

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