Testing for the effect of current-account ‘news’ on exchange rates

1981 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 273-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen S. Golub
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Current Account

The Asian Crises Reexamined

2004 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 32-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas D. Willett ◽  
Ekniti Nitithanprapas ◽  
Isriya Nitithanprapas ◽  
Sunil Rongala
Keyword(s):  
Moral Hazard ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Credit Expansion ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Large Current ◽  
New Evidence

This paper analyzes hypotheses and evidence for the causes of the Asian crises. It presents new evidence that, along with high rates of credit expansion and low ratios of international reserves to short-term debt, the combination of substantially appreciated currencies and large current account deficits played an important role in the crises' severity. Furthermore, the paper concludes that pre-crisis over-optimism rather than panic caused financial markets to behave imperfectly and that perverse financial liberalization and limited flexibility of exchange rates generated moral hazard problems of more importance than those generated by prospects of international bailouts.

scholarly journals Current Account Fragilities in the Balkan Countries

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ercan Uygur
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Debt Ratio ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Balkan Countries ◽  
The Current Account

The basic aim of this paper is to make an evaluation of the current account deficits in the Balkan countries. Particularly, sustainability of these deficits is explored for some countries on the basis of a criterion that makes use of variables including foreign debt ratio, growth rate, exchange rate, foreign interest rate and foreign trade balance ratio. Countries with significant current account deficit/GDP ratios include, in descending order, Albania, Bosnia Herzegovina, Turkey, Serbia and Macedonia. Sources of financing of the current account deficits, real exchange rates and inflation are other variables that are considered in the evaluations.

scholarly journals An Empirical Evaluation of Exchange Rates Changes: Economic Implications in Oil-Exporting Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-126
Author(s):  
Abdullah AbdulRahman
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Signs And Symptoms ◽  
Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Spot Exchange Rate

SummarySubject and purpose of work: This paper examines empirical implications of exchange rates in the economy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). In particular, it aims to identify and evaluate potential macroeconomic signs and symptoms of economic disturbance so as to determine macroeconomic variables that influence spot exchange rate (1GBP = SAR), and to examine how fixed exchange rate regime influences exports and imports in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).Materials and methods: Multiple regression and simple linear regression models were used to analyze the data from 1975 to 2018.Results: The study found a weak and insignificant relationship between spot exchange rate and unemployment rate, inflation rate, exports, and economic growth, along with strong relations with imports, investment, and current account variation in the KSA.Conclusions: The study recommends the adoption of a floating exchange rate regime in the KSA. It has revealed the signs and symptoms of increases of the inflation rate with decreasing exports, increasing imports, decreasing of current account (current account deficit threat), and small increases of investment.

scholarly journals Analysis of Current Account and Real Exchange Rate: Lower Middle Income Countries in Association of Southeast Asian Nations

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5C) ◽  
pp. 662-668
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

The study investigates the simultaneous equation model of the current account and real exchange rates in group of lower middle income in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This study uses time series from 2000-2017 (18 years) and cross section 6 countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Lao, Myanmar, and Cambodia). There are three important findings in this study; first, for the current account is financial development has positive effect while government spending and foreign direct investment have negative effect; second, for the real exchange rate is economic openness, money supply, and interest rate have positive effect while foreign direct investment and current account have negative effect; third, only current account affects real exchange rates. Therefore, it is highly recommended for group of lower middle income in ASEAN to intervene in monetary policy variables so that uncontrolled deficits and fluctuations can achieve equilibrium in group of lower middle income in ASEAN.

scholarly journals Asset Prices, Exchange Rates and the Current Account

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcel Fratzscher ◽  
Luciana Juvenal ◽  
Lucio Sarno
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
The Current Account
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