Identifying large fire weather typologies in the Iberian Peninsula

2020 ◽  
Vol 280 ◽  
pp. 107789 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Rodrigues ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
Cristina Vega-García ◽  
Adrián Cardil
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Large Fire

Identification of favourable local-scale weather forcing conditions to Iberia’s largest fires

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inês Vieira ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
Mediterranean Ecosystem ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Weather Types ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The Mediterranean

<p>The Mediterranean region is characterized by frequent summer wildfires, which represent an environmental and socioeconomic burden [1]. Some Mediterranean countries (or provinces) are particularly prone to Large Fires (LF), namely Portugal, Galicia (Spain), Greece, and southern France [1,2]. Moreover, the Mediterranean basin corresponds to a major hotspot of climate change, and anthropogenic warming is expected to increase the total burned area due to wildfires in Iberian Peninsula (IP) [3].</p><p>Here, we propose to classify summer LF (June-September) for fifty-four provinces of the IIP according to their local-scale weather conditions (i.e. temperature, relative humidity, wind speed) and to fire danger weather conditions as measured by two fire weather indices (Duff Moisture Code and Drought Code). A cluster analysis was applied to identify a limited set of Fire Weather Types (FWT), each characterized by a combination of meteorological conditions leading to a better understanding of the relationship between meteorological drivers and fire occurrence. For each of the provinces, two significant FWT were identified with different characteristics, one dominated by high positive temperature anomalies and negative humidity anomalies (FWT1), and the other by intense zonal wind anomalies (FWT2) with two distinct subtypes in Iberia (FWT2_E and FWT2_W). Consequently, three distinct regions in the IP are identified: 1) dominated by FWT1, which is responsible for the largest amount of area burned in most of central-West provinces of Iberia; 2) the regions where the FWT2_E, associated with east winds is predominant, which are concentrated in the Northwest regions of the IP and the 3) regions where second subtype dominates, related with west winds (FWT2_W) in the easternmost provinces of the peninsula. Additionally, it was possible to verify that for each of the three regions the influence of the variables under study varies at different timescales. We reinforce the importance of studying the problem associated with LF for regions where similar conditions were verified regardless national borders.</p><p> </p><p>[1] Trigo, R. M., Sousa, P. M., Pereira, M. G., Rasilla, D., & Gouveia, C. M. (2013). “Modelling wildfire activity in Iberia with different atmospheric circulation weather types”. International Journal of Climatology 36(7), 2761–2778. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3749.</p><p>[2] Ruffault, J., Moron, V., Trigo, R. M., & Curt, T. (2016). “Objective identification of multiple large fire climatologies: An application to a Mediterranean ecosystem”. Environmental Research Letters 11(7). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075006.</p><p>[3] Sousa, P. M., Trigo, R. M., Pereira, M. G., Bedia, J., & Gutiérrez, J. M. (2015).”Different approaches to model future burnt area in the Iberian Peninsula”. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 202, 11–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.11.018.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Acknowledgements:</strong> This work was supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project IMPECAF (PTDC/CTA-CLI/28902/2017). The authors also thank Miguel M. Pinto for extracting the ERA-Interim reanalysis, the MSG and the FWI data used in this study.</p>

Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiganoush K. Preisler ◽  
Shyh-Chin Chen ◽  
Francis Fujioka ◽  
John W. Benoit ◽  
Anthony L. Westerling
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Large Fire ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Weather Model ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The monthly average Fosberg Fire Weather Index, deduced from the weather simulation, along with the monthly average Keetch–Byram Drought Index and Energy Release Component, were found to be more strongly associated with large fire events on a monthly scale than any of the other stand-alone fire weather or danger indices. These selected indices were used in the spatially explicit probability model to estimate the number of large fire events. Historic probabilities were also estimated using spatially smoothed historic frequencies of large fire events. It was shown that the probability model using four fire danger indices outperformed the historic model, an indication that these indices have some skill. Geographical maps of the estimated monthly wildland fire probabilities, developed using a combination of four indices, were produced for each year and were found to give reasonable matches to actual fire events. This method paves a feasible way to assess the skill of climate forecast outputs, from a dynamical meteorological model, in forecasting the probability of wildland fire severity with known precision.

Iberian Fire Regimes for Future Climate Scenarios using a Climate Ensemble

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomás Calheiros ◽  
Mário Pereira ◽  
João Nunes
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Weather Risk ◽  
The Future

<div> <p><strong>Iberia Fire Regimes for Future Climate Scenarios using a Climate Ensemble</strong></p> <p><strong> </strong></p> <p>T. Calheiros<sup>(1)</sup>, M.G. Pereira<sup>(2,3)</sup>, J.P. Nunes<sup>(1)</sup></p> <p><sup>(1)</sup> CE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal</p> <p><sup>(2)</sup>Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas (CITAB), Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal</p> <p><sup>(3)</sup>Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal</p>   <p> </p> </div><p> </p><p>Wildfires are generating higher concern worldwide, especially in the Mediterranean regions. Fire season severity and total annual burnt area strongly depend on weather conditions and climate variability.</p><p>The first objective of this work was to analyse Fire Weather Indexes (FWI) in the Iberian Peninsula for the present-day conditions and future climate scenarios, using reanalysis data from ERA-Interim (for 1980-2014) and an ensemble of 11 models from EURO-CORDEX, with high spatial (12 km) and daily resolution. FWI were computed for historical (1976 – 2005) and three future periods (2011-2040, 2041 – 2070 and 2071-2100), using maximum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed data simulated for two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The second objective was to use the Iberian Pyro-Regions and an analysis of the Number of Extreme Days (NED), using previously published methods, to apply on the future scenarios and assess the intra-annual pattern of NED; and, subsequently, to assess if the pyro-regions will change in a future climate, by taking into account the link between monthly burnt area and extreme days found in previous work.</p><p>The results anticipate a progressive growth of the SW pyro-region throughout the NW pyro-region, and a shift of the present-day NW pyro-region to most of the provinces occupying the N pyro-region, with exception of those north of the Cantabrian Mountains, in effect moving the present-day pattern northwards. This is driven by the large increase of the NED in summer months and eventually a decrease in March and April. Projections alto point to FWI values increasing considerably when comparing the historical and the future scenarios, especially in late spring and early autumn. These results anticipate a higher fire weather risk in the future, with a larger and stronger fire season.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>References:</p><p> </p><p>Calheiros, T., Pereira, M. G and Nunes, J. P. (2020, in press) ‘Recent evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of burnt areas and fire weather risk in the Iberian Peninsula’, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Identifying Local-Scale Weather Forcing Conditions Favorable to Generating Iberia’s Largest Fires

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inês Vieira ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Weather Types ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

The Mediterranean region is characterized by the frequent occurrence of summer wildfires, representing an environmental and socioeconomic burden. Some Mediterranean countries (or provinces) are particularly prone to large fires, namely Portugal, Galicia (Spain), Greece, and southern France. Additionally, the Mediterranean basin corresponds to a major hotspot of climate change, and anthropogenic warming is expected to increase the total burned area due to fires in Mediterranean Europe. Here, we propose to classify summer large fires for fifty-four provinces of the Iberian Peninsula according to their local-scale weather conditions and fire danger weather conditions. A composite analysis was used to investigate the impact of local and regional climate drivers at different timescales, and to identify distinct climatologies associated with the occurrence of large fires. Cluster analysis was also used to identify a limited set of fire weather types, each characterized by a combination of meteorological conditions. For each of the provinces, two significant fire weather types were identified—one dominated by high positive temperature anomalies and negative humidity anomalies, and the other by intense zonal wind anomalies with two distinct subtypes in the Iberian Peninsula., allowing for the identification of three distinct regions.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of fire weather index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 699-708 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bedia ◽  
S. Herrera ◽  
J. M. Gutiérrez ◽  
G. Zavala ◽  
I. R. Urbieta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Effective Prevention

Abstract. Wildfires are a major concern on the Iberian Peninsula, and the establishment of effective prevention and early warning systems are crucial to reduce impacts and losses. Fire weather indices are daily indicators of fire danger based upon meteorological information. However, their application in many studies is conditioned to the availability of sufficiently large climatological time series over extensive geographical areas and of sufficient quality. Furthermore, wind and relative humidity, important for the calculation of fire spread and fuel flammability parameters, are relatively scarce data. For these reasons, different reanalysis products are often used for the calculation of surrogate fire danger indices, although the agreement with those derived from observations remains as an open question to be addressed. In this study, we analyze this problem focusing on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) – and the associated Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR) – and considering three different reanalysis products of varying resolutions on the Iberian Peninsula: NCEP, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Besides the inter-comparison of the resulting FWI/SSR values, we also study their correspondence with observational data from 7 weather stations in Spain and their sensitivity to the input parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity). As a general result, ERA-Interim reproduces the observed FWI magnitudes with better accuracy than NCEP, with lower/higher correlations in the coast/inland locations. For instance, ERA-Interim summer correlations are above 0.5 in inland locations – where higher FWI magnitudes are attained – whereas the corresponding values for NCEP are below this threshold. Nevertheless, departures from the observed distributions are generally found in all reanalysis, with a general tendency to underestimation, more pronounced in the case of NCEP. In spite of these limitations, ERA-Interim may still be useful for the identification of extreme fire danger events. (e.g. those above the 90th percentile value) and for the definition of danger levels/classes (with level thresholds adapted to the observed/reanalysis distributions).

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