ABSTRACTThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a global impact that has been unevenly distributed amongst and, even within countries. Multiple demographic and environmental factors have been associated with the risk of COVID-19 spread and fatality, including age, gender, ethnicity, poverty, and air quality among others. However, specific contributions of these factors are yet to be understood. Here, we attempted to explain the variability in infection, death, and fatality rates by understanding the contributions of a few selected factors. We compared the incidence of COVID-19 in New York State (NYS) counties during the first wave of infection and analyzed how different demographic and environmental variables associate with the variation observed across the counties. We observed that the two important COVID-19 metrics of infection rates and death rates to be well correlated, and both metrics being highest in counties located near New York City, considered one of the epicenters of the infection in the US. In contrast, disease fatality was found to be highest in a different set of counties despite registering a low infection rate. To investigate this apparent discrepancy, we divided the counties into three clusters based on COVID-19 infection, death rate, or fatality, and compared the differences in the demographic and environmental variables such as ethnicity, age, population density, poverty, temperature, and air quality in each of these clusters. Furthermore, a regression model built on this data reveals PM2.5 and distance from the epicenter are significant risk factors for high infection rate, while disease fatality has a strong association with age and PM2.5. Our results demonstrate, for the NYS, distinct contributions of old age, PM2.5, ethnicity these factors to the overall COVID-19 burden and highlight the detrimental impact of poor air quality. These results could help design and direct location-specific control and mitigation strategies.
Characterization of intra-continental smoke transport and impact on New York State air quality using aerosol reanalysis and multi-platform observations
