Seismic hazard due to small-magnitude, shallow-source, induced earthquakes in The Netherlands

2006 ◽  
Vol 87 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 105-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torild van Eck ◽  
Femke Goutbeek ◽  
Hein Haak ◽  
Bernard Dost
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Small Magnitude

Framework for a Ground-Motion Model for Induced Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis in the Groningen Gas Field, The Netherlands

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 481-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian J. Bommer ◽  
Peter J. Stafford ◽  
Benjamin Edwards ◽  
Bernard Dost ◽  
Ewoud van Dedem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Quantitative Estimation ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Ground Motion Model ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

The potential for building damage and personal injury due to induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field is being modeled in order to inform risk management decisions. To facilitate the quantitative estimation of the induced seismic hazard and risk, a ground motion prediction model has been developed for response spectral accelerations and duration due to these earthquakes that originate within the reservoir at 3 km depth. The model is consistent with the motions recorded from small-magnitude events and captures the epistemic uncertainty associated with extrapolation to larger magnitudes. In order to reflect the conditions in the field, the model first predicts accelerations at a rock horizon some 800 m below the surface and then convolves these motions with frequency-dependent nonlinear amplification factors assigned to zones across the study area. The variability of the ground motions is modeled in all of its constituent parts at the rock and surface levels.

scholarly journals Development of a seismic site-response zonation map for the Netherlands

2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-63
Author(s):  
Janneke van Ginkel ◽  
Elmer Ruigrok ◽  
Jan Stafleu ◽  
Rien Herber
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Transfer Functions ◽  
Site Response ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Ambient Vibration ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Zonation Map ◽  
Moderate Seismicity

Abstract. Earthquake site response is an essential part of seismic hazard assessment, especially in densely populated areas. The shallow geology of the Netherlands consists of a very heterogeneous soft sediment cover, which has a strong effect on the amplitude of ground shaking. Even though the Netherlands is a low- to moderate-seismicity area, the seismic risk cannot be neglected, in particular, because shallow induced earthquakes occur. The aim of this study is to establish a nationwide site-response zonation by combining 3D lithostratigraphic models and earthquake and ambient vibration recordings. As a first step, we constrain the parameters (velocity contrast and shear-wave velocity) that are indicative of ground motion amplification in the Groningen area. For this, we compare ambient vibration and earthquake recordings using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method, borehole empirical transfer functions (ETFs), and amplification factors (AFs). This enables us to define an empirical relationship between the amplification measured from earthquakes by using the ETF and AF and the amplification estimated from ambient vibrations by using the HVSR. With this, we show that the HVSR can be used as a first proxy for site response. Subsequently, HVSR curves throughout the Netherlands are estimated. The HVSR amplitude characteristics largely coincide with the in situ lithostratigraphic sequences and the presence of a strong velocity contrast in the near surface. Next, sediment profiles representing the Dutch shallow subsurface are categorised into five classes, where each class represents a level of expected amplification. The mean amplification for each class, and its variability, is quantified using 66 sites with measured earthquake amplification (ETF and AF) and 115 sites with HVSR curves. The site-response (amplification) zonation map for the Netherlands is designed by transforming geological 3D grid cell models into the five classes, and an AF is assigned to most of the classes. This site-response assessment, presented on a nationwide scale, is important for a first identification of regions with increased seismic hazard potential, for example at locations with mining or geothermal energy activities.

scholarly journals Development of a country-wide seismic site-response zonation map for the Netherlands

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janneke van Ginkel ◽  
Elmer Ruigrok ◽  
Jan Stafleu ◽  
Rien Herber
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Site Response ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Ambient Vibration ◽  
Ratio Method ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Zonation Map ◽  
Moderate Seismicity

Abstract. Earthquake site-response is an essential part of seismic hazard assessment, especially in densely populated areas. The shallow geology of the Netherlands consists of a very heterogeneous soft sediment cover, which has a strong effect on seismic wave propagation and in particular on the amplitude of ground shaking, resulting in significant damage on structures despite the fact that the events are of small magnitude. Even though it is a low-to-moderate seismicity area, the seismic risk cannot be neglected, in particular, because shallow induced earthquakes occur. The aim of this study is to establish a nationwide site-response zonation by using the lithostratigraphy, earthquake- and ambient vibration recordings. In the first step, we constrain the parameters (velocity contrast and shear-wave velocity) that are indicative of ground-motion amplification in the Groningen area. For this, we combine ambient vibration and earthquake recordings using resp. the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method (HVSR), borehole empirical transfer functions (ETFs) and amplification factors (AFs). This enables us to define an empirical relationship between measured earthquake amplification from the ETF and AF, and amplification estimated with the HVSR derived from the ambient seismic field. Therewith, we show that the HVSR can be used as a first proxy for amplification. Subsequently, HVSR curves throughout the Netherlands are estimated. The resulting peak amplitudes largely coincide with the in-situ lithostratigraphic sequences and the presence of a strong velocity contrast in the near-surface. Next, sediment profiles representing the Dutch shallow subsurface are categorized into five classes, where each class is representing a level of expected amplification. The mean amplification for each class, and its variability, is quantified using 66 sites with measured earthquake amplification (ETF and AF) and 115 sites with HVSR curves. The site-response (amplification) zonation map for the Netherlands is designed by transforming published geological 3D grid cell models into the five classes and an AF is assigned to most of the classes. This presented site-response assessment on a national scale is important for a first identification of regions with increased seismic hazard potential, for example at locations with mining or geothermal energy activities.

scholarly journals A New Procedure for Evaluating Ground-Motion Models, with Application to Hydraulic-Fracture-Induced Seismicity in the United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2380-2397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma Cremen ◽  
Maximilian J. Werner ◽  
Brian Baptie
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Hydraulic Fracture ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Ground Motion Models

ABSTRACT An essential component of seismic hazard analysis is the prediction of ground shaking (and its uncertainty), using ground-motion models (GMMs). This article proposes a new method to evaluate (i.e., rank) the suitability of GMMs for modeling ground motions in a given region. The method leverages a statistical tool from sensitivity analysis to quantitatively compare predictions of a GMM with underlying observations. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method relative to several other popular GMM ranking procedures and highlight its advantages, which include its intuitive scoring system and its ability to account for the hierarchical structure of GMMs. We use the proposed method to evaluate the applicability of several GMMs for modeling ground motions from induced earthquakes due to U.K. shale gas development. The data consist of 195 recordings at hypocentral distances (R) less than 10 km for 29 events with local magnitude (ML) greater than 0 that relate to 2018/2019 hydraulic-fracture operations at the Preston New Road shale gas site in Lancashire and 192 R<10  km recordings for 48 ML>0 events induced—within the same geologic formation—by coal mining near New Ollerton, North Nottinghamshire. We examine: (1) the Akkar, Sandikkaya, and Bommer (2014) models for European seismicity; (2) the Douglas et al. (2013) model for geothermal-induced seismicity; and (3) the Atkinson (2015) model for central and eastern North America induced seismicity. We find the Douglas et al. (2013) model to be the most suitable for almost all of the considered ground-motion intensity measures. We modify this model by recomputing its coefficients in line with the observed data, to further improve its accuracy for future analyses of the seismic hazard of interest. This study both advances the state of the art in GMM evaluation and enhances understanding of the seismic hazard related to U.K. shale gas development.

scholarly journals Intensity Reassessment of the 2017 Pohang Earthquake Mw = 5.4 (South Korea) Using ESI-07 Scale

Geosciences ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 471
Author(s):  
Sambit Prasanajit Naik ◽  
Ohsang Gwon ◽  
Sabina Porfido ◽  
Kiwoong Park ◽  
Kwangmin Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Environmental Effects ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Substantial Contribution ◽  
Intensity Scale ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Epicentral Area

The earthquake environmental effects (EEEs) around the epicentral area of the Pohang earthquake (Mw-5.4) that occurred on 15 November 2017 have been collected and classified using the Environmental Seismic Intensity Scale (ESI-07 scale) proposed by the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) focus group. The shallow-focus 15 November Pohang earthquake did not produce any surface rupture, but caused extensive secondary environmental effects and damage to life-line structures. This earthquake was one of the most damaging earthquakes during the instrumental seismic era of the Korean Peninsula. The EEEs included extensive liquefaction, ground cracks, ground settlement, localized rockfall, and variation of the water table. The main objective of this paper was to carry forward a comparative assessment of the Pohang earthquake’s intensity based on traditional macroseismic scales and the ESI-07 scale. With that objective, this study will also make a substantial contribution to any future revision of the ESI-07 scale, which mostly comprises case studies from Europe and South America. The comparison of the ESI-07 scale with traditional intensity scales similar to the intensity scale used by the Korean Meteorological Administration for the epicentral areas showed 1–2-degree differences in intensity. Moreover, the ESI scale provided a clearer picture of the intensity around the epicentral area, which is mostly agricultural land with a lack of urban units or buildings. This study urges the integration of the traditional and ESI-07 scale for such small magnitude earthquakes in the Korean Peninsula as well as around the world in future. This will predict seismic intensity more precisely and hence provide a more-effective seismic hazard estimation, particularly in areas of low seismic activity. The present study will also provide a useful and reliable tool for the seismic hazard assessment of similar earthquakes around the study area and land-use planning at a local scale considering the secondary effects.

scholarly journals Global occurrence and impact of small-to-medium magnitude earthquakes: a statistical analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecilia I. Nievas ◽  
Julian J. Bommer ◽  
Helen Crowley ◽  
Jan van Elk
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Catalogue ◽  
Individual Contribution ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
A Value ◽  
Magnitude Range ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Despite their much smaller individual contribution to the global counts of casualties and damage than their larger counterparts, earthquakes with moment magnitudes Mw in the range 4.0–5.5 may dominate seismic hazard and risk in areas of low overall seismicity, a statement that is particularly true for regions where anthropogenically-induced earthquakes are predominant. With the risk posed by these earthquakes causing increasing alarm in certain areas of the globe, it is of interest to determine what proportion of earthquakes in this magnitude range that occur sufficiently close to population or the built environment do actually result in damage and/or casualties. For this purpose, a global catalogue of potentially damaging events—that is, earthquakes deemed as potentially capable of causing damage or casualties based on a series of pre-defined criteria—has been generated and contrasted against a database of reportedly damaging small-to-medium earthquakes compiled in parallel to this work. This paper discusses the criteria and methodology followed to define such a set of potentially damaging events, from the issues inherent to earthquake catalogue compilation to the definition of criteria to establish how much potential exposure is sufficient to consider each earthquake a threat. The resulting statistics show that, on average, around 2% of all potentially-damaging shocks were actually reported as damaging, though the proportion varies significantly in time as a consequence of the impact of accessibility to data on damage and seismicity in general. Inspection of the years believed to be more complete suggests that a value of around 4–5% might be a more realistic figure.

Large-Scale Migration Patterns of Wastewater-Induced Earthquakes in the Central U.S.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Johann ◽  
Serge A. Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Large Volume ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Element Model ◽  
Strength Distribution ◽  
Correlation Technique ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Injection Rates

<p>It is understood that the recent acceleration of seismic event occurrences in Kansas and Oklahoma, U.S., can be connected to the large-volume disposal of wastewater. These highly saline fluids are co-produced with oil and gas and are re-injected under gravity into the highly porous Arbuckle aquifer. Since 2015, injection rates have been decreasing. However, the seismic hazard in that region remains elevated. Furthermore, it has been noticed that some events in Kansas occur far from disposal wells.</p><p>To analyse spatio-temporal patterns between the fluid injection and earthquake locations, we applied a time-dependent 2D cross-correlation technique. This reveals a vectorial migration pattern of the seismic events. Whereas early events occur towards the east-sourtheast, later events are located preferably in northeastern direction of large volume injectors. With time, event locations migrate further in that direction. We explain this observation as well as measured Arbuckle pore pressures by a directional pore-fluid pressure diffusion and poroelastic stress propagation. This also follows from our principal two-dimension poroelastic finite element model which is of predictive power and identifies controlling parameters of the observations. These are mainly the permeability of the target injection formation and the seismogenic basement as well as the anisotropic permeability and the critical fault strength distribution. Our results lead to the conclusion that remote locations are destabilised also when injection rates are declining.</p><p>Thus, volume reductions may only provide a direct effect to lower earthquake rates locally. However, a state-wide decrease of the seismicity may require longer times such that the seismic hazard due to wastewater disposal induced seismicity may remain for decades. </p>

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