Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: a mathematical modeling study

Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was observed in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious sect in South Korea. The index case was confirmed on February 18, 2020 in Daegu City, and within two weeks, 3,081 connected cases were identified. Doubling times during the initial stages of the outbreak were less than 2 days. A stochastic model fitted to the time series of confirmed cases suggests that the basic reproduction number (R0) of 18 COVID-19 was 8.5 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6.3, 10.9] among the church members, whereas R0 = 1.9 [95% CrI: 0.4, 4.4] in the rest of the population of Daegu City. The model also suggests that there were 4 [95% CrI: 2, 11] undetected cases when the first case reported symptoms on February 7. The Shincheonji Church cluster is likely to be emblematic of other outbreak-prone populations where R0 of COVID-19 is higher. Understanding and subsequently limiting the risk of transmission in such high-risk places is key to effective control.

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Appearance of Temporal and Spatial Chaos in an Ecological System: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Iranian Journal of Science and Technology Transactions A Science ◽

10.1007/s40995-021-01139-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

S. N. Raw ◽

P. Mishra ◽

B. P. Sarangi ◽

B. Tiwari

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modeling ◽

Ecological System ◽

System A ◽

Spatial Chaos ◽

Temporal And Spatial ◽

Modeling Study

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Evaluation of work resumption strategies after COVID-19 reopening in the Chinese city of Shenzhen: a mathematical modeling study

Public Health ◽

10.1016/j.puhe.2020.12.018 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lu Bai ◽

Haonan Lu ◽

Hailin Hu ◽

M. Kumi Smith ◽

Katherine Harripersaud ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modeling ◽

Chinese City ◽

Work Resumption ◽

Modeling Study

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Mathematical modeling the epicenters of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

Epidemiologic Methods ◽

10.1515/em-2020-0009 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (s1) ◽

Author(s):

Babak Jamshidi ◽

Mansour Rezaei ◽

Shahriar Jamshidi Zargaran ◽

Farid Najafi

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modeling ◽

South Korea ◽

The Usa

AbstractIn epidemiology, the modeling of epicenters is important both conceptually and mathematically. This paper is an attempt to model epicenters mathematically. We present an algorithm to find new epicenters. Applying our model for the data related to COVID-19 pandemic, we obtain epicenters in China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, the USA, and Switzerland, on the days 1, 35, 42, 42, 49, 50, 50, 50, and 56, respectively. Although the number of these epicenters is less than 5% of all contaminated countries across the globe, as of March 22, 2020, they make up 74% of new cases and over 80% of total confirmed cases. Finally, we conclude that we expect to face three new epicenters between March 22 and April 1, 2020.

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Bypassing the Technocratic State in South Korea

Asian Medicine ◽

10.1163/15734218-12341483 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 36-57

Author(s):

James Flowers

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

South Korea ◽

Traditional Medicine ◽

Herbal Medicines ◽

The State ◽

Financial Resources ◽

Cultural Resources ◽

Korean Medicine ◽

Treatment Plans ◽

Rapid Transmission

Abstract This article reveals an important, yet hidden, Korean response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 that goes beyond the actions of the state. It focuses on the Korean medicine doctors who were excluded from any government-led public health or treatment plans for COVID-19. Bypassing the state, they used telehealth to provide herbal medicines to 20 percent of COVID-19 patients in South Korea. Traditional medicine doctors volunteered their services and financial resources to fill a gap in COVID-19 care. Most observers attribute Korean success in controlling COVID-19 to the leadership of the technocratic state with buy-in from the population. However, the case of Korea offers an example of bottom-up healthcare in a community where people chose their own native cultural resources and helps to explain how doctors were able to take the initiative to autonomously work with people in the community to help to stop the otherwise rapid transmission of the virus.

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