The contrasting effect of increasing mean sea level and decreasing storminess on the maximum water level during storms along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea in the mid 21st century

2017 ◽  
Vol 151 ◽  
pp. 80-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piero Lionello ◽  
Dario Conte ◽  
Luigi Marzo ◽  
Luca Scarascia
2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 442-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Pinardi ◽  
A. Bonaduce ◽  
A. Navarra ◽  
S. Dobricic ◽  
P. Oddo

Abstract A formalism to obtain a mean sea level equation (MSLE) is constructed for any limited ocean region and/or the global ocean by considering the mass conservation equation with compressible effects and a linear equation of state. The MSLE contains buoyancy fluxes terms representing the steric effects and the mass flux is represented by surface water fluxes and volume transport terms. The MSLE is studied for the Mediterranean Sea case using a simulation experiment for the decade 1999–2008. It is found that the Mediterranean MSL tendency is made of a steric contribution that is almost periodic in time superimposed on a stochastic-like signal due to the mass balance, dominating the MSL tendency. The MSL tendency stochastic-like term is a result of the imbalance between the volume flux at Gibraltar and the area average surface water flux.


1995 ◽  
Vol 100 (C12) ◽  
pp. 25163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Larnicol ◽  
Pierre-Yves Le Traon ◽  
Nadia Ayoub ◽  
Pierre De Mey

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 1457-1475 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. N. Tsimplis ◽  
A. G. P. Shaw

Abstract. Hourly sea level data from tide gauges and a barotropic model are used to explore the spatial and temporal variability of sea level extremes in the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic coasts of the Iberian peninsula on seasonal time scales. Significant spatial variability is identified in the observations in all seasons. The Atlantic stations show larger extreme values than the Mediterranean Sea primarily due to the tidal signal. When the tidal signal is removed most stations have maximum values of less than 90 cm occurring in winter or autumn. The maxima in spring and summer are less than 60 cm in most stations. The wind and atmospheric forcing contributes about 50 cm in the winter and between 20–40 cm in the other seasons. In the western Mediterranean the observed extreme values are less than 50 cm, except near the Strait of Gibraltar. Direct atmospheric forcing contributes significantly to sea level extremes. Maximum sea level values due to atmospheric forcing reach in some stations 45 cm during the winter. During the summer the contribution of the direct atmospheric forcing is between 10–20 cm. The Adriatic Sea shows a resonant behaviour with maximum extreme observed sea level values around 200 cm found at the northern part. Trends in the 99.9% percentiles are present in several areas, however most of them are removed when the 50% percentile is subtracted indicating that changes in the extremes are in line with mean sea level change. The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Mediterranean Oscillation Index are well correlated with the changes in the 99.9% winter values in the Atlantic, western Mediterranean and the Adriatic stations. The correlation of the NAO and the MOI indices in the Atlantic and western Mediterranean is significant in the autumn too. The correlations between the NAO and MOI index and the changes in the sea level extremes become insignificant when the 50% percentile is removed indicating again that changes in extremes have been dominated by changes in the mean sea level.


2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 338-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ichiro Fukumori ◽  
Dimitris Menemenlis ◽  
Tong Lee

Abstract A new basin-wide oscillation of the Mediterranean Sea is identified and analyzed using sea level observations from the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon satellite altimeter and a numerical ocean circulation model. More than 50% of the large-scale, nontidal, and non-pressure-driven variance of sea level can be attributed to this oscillation, which is nearly uniform in phase and amplitude across the entire basin. The oscillation has periods ranging from 10 days to several years and has a magnitude as large as 10 cm. The model suggests that the fluctuations are driven by winds at the Strait of Gibraltar and its neighboring region, including the Alboran Sea and a part of the Atlantic Ocean immediately to the west of the strait. Winds in this region force a net mass flux through the Strait of Gibraltar to which the Mediterranean Sea adjusts almost uniformly across its entire basin with depth-independent pressure perturbations. The wind-driven response can be explained in part by wind setup; a near-stationary balance is established between the along-strait wind in this forcing region and the sea level difference between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. The amplitude of this basin-wide wind-driven sea level fluctuation is inversely proportional to the setup region’s depth but is insensitive to its width including that of Gibraltar Strait. The wind-driven fluctuation is coherent with atmospheric pressure over the basin and contributes to the apparent deviation of the Mediterranean Sea from an inverse barometer response.


2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 344-353
Author(s):  
Abdul-Hassan K. Al-Shukur ◽  
Ranya Badea’ Mahmoud

One of the most common type of embankment dam failure is the dam-break due to overtopping. In this study, the finite elements method has been used to analyze seepage and limit equilibrium method to study stability of the body of an earthfill dam during the flood condition. For this purpose, the software Geostudio 2012 is used through its subprograms SEEP/W and SLOPE/W. Al-Adhaim dam in Iraq has been chosen to analysis the 5 days of flood. It was found that the water flux of seepage during the flood reaches about 8.772*10-5. m3/sec when the water level 146.5 m at 2nd day. Seepage through the embankment at maximum water level increased by 55.1 % from maximum water level. It was concluded that the factor of safety against sliding in downstream side decrease with increasing water level and vice versa. It was also concluded that the deposits are getting more critical stability during the conditions of flood when the factor of safety value reaches 1.219 at 2nd day.


Atmosphere ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Phil J. Watson

This paper provides an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of the hourly water level record at Fort Denison dating back to 1915 to understand the statistical likelihood of the combination of high predicted tides and the more dynamic influences that can drive ocean water levels higher at the coast. The analysis is based on the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method using a fitted Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) function to estimate extreme hourly heights above mean sea level. The analysis highlights the impact of the 1974 East Coast Low event and rarity of the associated measured water level above mean sea level at Sydney, with an estimated return period exceeding 1000 years. Extreme hourly predictions are integrated with future projections of sea level rise to provide estimates of relevant still water levels at 2050, 2070 and 2100 for a range of return periods (1 to 1000 years) for use in coastal zone management, design, and sea level rise adaptation planning along the NSW coastline. The analytical procedures described provide a step-by-step guide for practitioners on how to develop similar baseline information from any long tide gauge record and the associated limitations and key sensitivities that must be understood and appreciated in applying EVA.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piero Lionello ◽  
Dario Conte ◽  
Marco Reale

Abstract. Large positive and negative sea level anomalies at the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are linked to intensity and position of cyclones moving along the Mediterranean storm track, with dynamics involving different factors. This analysis is based on a model hindcast and considers nine coastal stations, which are representative of sea level anomalies with different magnitude and characteristics. When a shallow water fetch is present, the wind around the cyclone center is the main cause of sea level positive and negative anomalies, depending on its onshore or offshore direction. The inverse barometer effect produces a positive anomaly at the coast near the cyclone pressure minimum and a negative anomaly at the opposite side of the Mediterranean Sea, because a cross-basin mean sea level pressure gradient is associated to the presence of a cyclone. Further, at some stations, negative sea level anomalies are reinforced by a residual water mass redistribution within the basin, which is associated with a transient response to the atmospheric pressure forcing. Though the link between presence of a cyclone in the Mediterranean has comparable importance for positive and negative anomalies, the relation between cyclone position and intensity is stronger for the magnitude of positive events. Area of cyclogenesis, track of the central minimum and position at the time of the event differ depending on the location where the sea level anomaly occurs and on its sign. The western Mediterranean is the main cyclogenesis area for both positive and negative anomalies, overall. Atlantic cyclones mainly produce positive sea level anomalies in the western basin. At the easternmost stations, positive anomalies are caused by Cyclogenesis in the Eastern Mediterranean. North Africa cyclogeneses are a major source of positive anomalies at the central African coast and negative anomalies at the eastern Mediterranean and North Aegean coast.


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