Application of a sequential regime shift detection method to the Bering Sea ecosystem

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 328-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Rodionov ◽  
James E. Overland
Keyword(s):  
Bering Sea ◽  
Regime Shift ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Test Analysis ◽  
Eastern Bering Sea ◽  
Time Signals ◽  
Shift Detection ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
The Bering Sea

Abstract A common problem of existing methods for regime shift detection is their poor performance at the ends of time-series. Consequently, shifts in environmental and biological indices are usually detected long after their actual appearance. A recently introduced method based on sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts (STARS) treats all incoming data in real time, signals the possibility of a regime shift as soon as possible, then monitors how perception of the magnitude of the shift changes over time. Results of a STARS application to the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem show how the 1989 and 1998 regime shifts manifest themselves in biotic and abiotic indices in comparison with the 1977 shift.

scholarly journals State of forage base for pacific salmons in the Bering Sea in 2003-2012 (by results of surveys of the international expeditions BASIS-1 and 2)

2014 ◽  
Vol 179 (4) ◽  
pp. 250-271
Author(s):  
Anatoly F. Volkov
Keyword(s):  
Bering Sea ◽  
Regime Shift ◽  
Pacific Salmon ◽  
Zooplankton Community ◽  
Demersal Fish ◽  
Large Species ◽  
Sand Lance ◽  
Eastern Bering Sea ◽  
The Bering Sea

The BASIS expeditions in the Bering Sea were conducted by North Pacific Anadromous Fish Comission (NPAFC) in the 2003-2006 and 2007-2012, in relatively warm and relatively cold conditions, respectively. The ice cover of the Sea changed synchronously in its western and eastern parts and indicated the warm regime since 2001 to 2006 and the cold regime since 2006 till nowadays. The regime shift changed radically the structure of zooplankton community in the eastern Bering Sea: the dominance of small-sized and medium-sized zooplankton was replaced by the dominance of large-sized zooplankton, with abundant large species of euphausiids, hyperiids, copepods, and arrowworms. This restructuring was reflected in the diet of pacific salmon: the bulk of the pink, chum and sockeye salmons diet was presented by fingerlings of pollock, sand lance, and capelin, larvae of flounders and crabs, and fry of small demersal fish in 2003-2006, but by zooplankton as euphausiids, hyperiids, and pteropods since 2007. However, there weren’t so essential changes in the western Bering Sea, both in zooplankton structure and salmons diet; the year-to-year dynamics was significant here, too, but long-term tendencies were not observed.

scholarly journals Identification of Regime Shifts and Their Potential Drivers in the Shallow Eutrophic Lake Yilong, Southwest China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3704
Author(s):  
Lei Zhao ◽  
Mingguo Wang ◽  
Zhongyao Liang ◽  
Qichao Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Regime Shift ◽  
Eutrophic Lake ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Nutrient Reduction ◽  
Eutrophic Lakes ◽  
Test Analysis ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
High Possibility ◽  
Cage Fish

Regime shifts in shallow lakes can lead to great changes in ecosystem structures and functions, making ecosystem management more complicated. Lake Yilong, located in Yunnan Province, is one of the most eutrophic lakes in China. Although there is a high possibility that this lake has undergone regime shift one or more times, the presence of regime shifts and their drivers remain unknown. Here, we employed the sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to detect the regime shifts based on the long-term (1989–2018) dataset of the lake. We further determined their potential drivers, and explored the nutrient thresholds of regime shifts and hysteresis. The results showed that during the testing period, three regime shifts occurred in 1996 (restorative type), 2009 (catastrophic type) and 2014 (restorative type). The potential key drivers for the first two regime shifts (1996 and 2009) were both related to aquaculture. The abolition of cage fish culture may have led to the restorative regime shift in 1996, and the stocking of crabs and excessive premature releasing of fry possibly caused the catastrophic regime shift in 2009. However, the third regime shift, which occurred in 2014, was possibly related to the drought and succedent hydration. These results indicate that adjustments of aquaculture strategy and hydrological conditions are critical for the lake ecosystem’s recovery. Moreover, the total phosphorus thresholds were identified to be lower than 0.046 mg/L (restorative type) and higher than 0.105 mg/L (catastrophic type), respectively. In addition, an obvious hysteresis was observed after 2014, suggesting that nutrient reduction is important for this lake’s management in the future.

Lycodapus (Pisces: Zoarcidae) of eastern Bering Sea and nearby Pacific Ocean, with three new species and a revised key to the species

1981 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 667-678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex E. Peden ◽  
M. Eric Anderson
Keyword(s):  
New Species ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Bering Sea ◽  
Sea Of Okhotsk ◽  
Range Limit ◽  
The Sea Of Okhotsk ◽  
Eastern Bering Sea ◽  
Northern Range Limit ◽  
Three New Species ◽  
The Bering Sea

Lycodapus leptus n.sp., L. poecilus n.sp., and L. psarostomatus n.sp. are described from the eastern Bering Sea. A new key to all known species of Lycodapus is presented. In addition, L. fierasfer Gilbert, L. parviceps Gilbert, and L. derjugini Andriashev are recognized from the Bering Sea and L. microdon Schmidt is recognized from the Sea of Okhotsk. The northern range limit of Lycodapus dermatinus Gilbert is established from a sea mount off southeastern Alaska. A specimen of Lycodapus that cannot be identified to species represents the most southern record for the genus in Asiatic waters.

scholarly journals Age, growth, and maturity of the whitebrow skate, Bathyraja minispinosa, from the eastern Bering Sea

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (7) ◽  
pp. 1426-1434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaara M. Ainsley ◽  
David A. Ebert ◽  
Gregor M. Cailliet
Keyword(s):  
Bering Sea ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Gompertz Model ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Age At Maturity ◽  
Von Bertalanffy Model ◽  
Eastern Bering Sea ◽  
Best Fit ◽  
The Bering Sea

Abstract Ainsley, S. M., Ebert, D. A., and Cailliet, G. M. 2011. Age, growth, and maturity of the whitebrow skate, Bathyraja minispinosa, from the eastern Bering Sea. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1426–1434. Skates are a common bycatch in groundfish fisheries in the Bering Sea; however, their life-history characteristics are not well known. The study is the first to investigate the age, growth, and age at maturity of Bathyraja minispinosa. Ages were estimated using sectioned vertebrae and several growth models were compared. The Gompertz model was the best fit and no significant differences were detected between sexes for any model. The maximum age estimated was 37 years, and parameter estimates generated from the three-parameter von Bertalanffy model were k = 0.02 year−1 and L∞ = 146.9 cm total length (TL). Males reached their size at 50% maturity larger than females (70.1 and 67.4 cm, respectively), but no significant differences in the estimated size or age at maturity were found. Whereas B. minispinosa is smaller than many skate species in the eastern Bering Sea, it has a considerably longer estimated lifespan, indicating that size may not be a reliable method of estimating the vulnerability of a rajid species to population declines in the eastern North Pacific.

scholarly journals Role of physical processes in formation of spring phytoplankton bloom in the Bering Sea

Trudy VNIRO ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 181 ◽  
pp. 206-222
Author(s):  
K.K. Kivva ◽  
◽  
J.V. Selivanova ◽  
M.N. Pisareva ◽  
A.A. Sumkina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bering Sea ◽  
Phytoplankton Bloom ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Spring Phytoplankton Bloom ◽  
Eastern Bering Sea ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Shelf Region ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat ◽  
Bering Sea Shelf ◽  
The Bering Sea

The main part of the annual primary production in the Arctic and Subarctic zones of the World Ocean is formed during the spring phytoplankton bloom. The timing of the bloom depends on combination of physical factors. Oscillating control hypothesis, proposed in [Hunt et al., 2002] for the Eastern Bering Sea, describes annual peculiarities of ecosystem development related to conditions of the spring phytoplankton bloom. We review propositions of this hypothesis on the reasons of phytoplankton bloom and its connection with physical processes for four local regions of the Bering Sea shelf. The regions include western, northern and south-eastern parts of the shelf. The analysis is based on ocean color and microwave remotely sensed data as well as on atmospheric reanalysis. The results allow for hypothesis improvement. An early phytoplankton bloom may be present in the surface layer in April or May along the eastern Bering Sea shelf even in situations of early sea ice retreat (e. g. February-March) or absence of ice during winter. However, such combinations were not observed in the western Bering Sea shelf region. In 1998–2018, early ice retreat in the western shelf region was always accompanied by relatively late phytoplankton bloom. The temporal lag between sea ice retreat and phytoplankton bloom may be substantial in some years along the southernmost position of the ice edge. On the other hand, the spring bloom in the northern part of the shelf usually follows the ice retreat. In case of early ice retreat, the timing of the bloom is determined not only by wind conditions, but also by heat balance at the surface of the sea. The results are proposed to be used in further analysis of ecosystem dynamics of the western Bering Sea shelf.

Contrasting the variability in spatial distribution of two juvenile flatfishes in relation to thermal stanzas in the eastern Bering Sea

2019 ◽  
Vol 77 (3) ◽  
pp. 953-963
Author(s):  
Cynthia Yeung ◽  
Daniel W Cooper
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Bering Sea ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
Bottom Temperature ◽  
Eastern Bering Sea ◽  
Northward Expansion ◽  
Yellowfin Sole ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Limanda Aspera ◽  
The Bering Sea

Abstract Groundfish species in the Bering Sea are undergoing pronounced changes in spatial distribution and abundance due to warming ocean temperatures. The main drivers of interannual variability in this ecosystem are the alternating warm and cold thermal stanzas. Yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera; YFS) and northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra; NRS) are commercially-valuable flatfishes in the Bering Sea and are among the most dominant groundfish species there in numbers and biomass. We examined the variability in the spatial distribution and abundance of juvenile NRS and YFS in relation to the ice and temperature conditions associated with warm-cold thermal shifts from 1982 to 2017. The goal was to assess the implications of the fluctuating thermal environment for Bering Sea flatfish production. We found ice cover and bottom temperature indices in the preceding 1 to 3 years to be the best predictors of NRS juvenile distribution. In contrast, these indices were not significantly correlated with YFS juvenile distribution, which could be an artifact of their relatively low availability to sampling. A warm stanza, as the Bering Sea is currently in, is expected to favor high numbers of NRS juveniles and the northward expansion of their distribution.

Middle Pleistocene Mollusks from St. Lawrence Island and their Significance for the Paleo-Oceanography of the Bering Sea

1972 ◽  
Vol 2 (02) ◽  
pp. 119-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Hopkins ◽  
Robert W. Rowland ◽  
William W. Patton
Keyword(s):  
Bering Sea ◽  
Middle Pleistocene ◽  
Pacific Water ◽  
Arctic Water ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Northern Bering Sea ◽  
Eastern Bering Sea ◽  
Flow Through ◽  
The Bering Sea ◽  
Arctic Fauna

Drift, evidently of Illinoian age, was deposited on St. Lawrence Island at the margin of an ice cap that covered the highlands of the Chukotka Peninsula of Siberia and spread far eastward on the continental shelf of northern Bering Sea. Underlying the drift on the northwestward part of the island are mollusk-bearing beds deposited during the Kotzebuan Transgression. A comparison of mollusk faunas from St. Lawrence Island, Chukotka Peninsula, and Kotzebue Sound suggests that the present northward flow through Bering and Anadyr Straits was reversed during the Kotzebuan Transgression. Cold arctic water penetrated southward and southwestward bringing an arctic fauna to the Gulf of Anadyr. Warmer Pacific water probably entered eastern Bering Sea, passed eastward and northeastward around eastern and northern St. Lawrence Island, and then became entrained in the southward currents that passed through Anadyr Strait.

scholarly journals Distributional patterns of 0-group Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in the eastern Bering Sea under variable recruitment and thermal conditions

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas P. Hurst ◽  
Jamal H. Moss ◽  
Jessica A. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Bering Sea ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Pacific Cod ◽  
Eastern Bering Sea ◽  
Pacific Cod Gadus Macrocephalus ◽  
Gadus Macrocephalus ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Distributional Patterns ◽  
Variable Recruitment ◽  
The Bering Sea

Abstract Hurst, T. P., Moss, J. H., and Miller, J. A. 2012. Distributional patterns of 0-group Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in the eastern Bering Sea under variable recruitment and thermal conditions. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 163–174. Despite the importance of Pacific cod in Bering Sea fisheries and foodwebs, little is known about the habitat use and the distribution of early life stages. We analysed 6 years of catch data for 0-group Pacific cod in fishery-independent surveys of the Bering Sea shelf. Juvenile cod were most commonly captured on the middle shelf over depths of 50–80 m and were rarely captured north of 58°N. Consistently high catches were observed east of the Pribilof Islands and north of Port Moller along the Alaska Peninsula. There was evidence of density-dependent habitat selection at the local scale as the frequency of occurrence increased with regional catch per unit effort. At the basin scale, the southerly distribution of the weak 2009 cohort suggested the possibility of a range contraction for small cohorts. There was no consistent shift in the distribution of juvenile Pacific cod in response to interannual climate variability. These results for Pacific cod contrast with those observed for walleye pollock, which appears to exhibit greater variance in distribution, but are similar to patterns observed for juvenile Atlantic cod. Future work should focus on distribution in nearshore habitats and examine the patterns of dispersal and the connectivity of the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska populations.

scholarly journals Fisheries management for regime-based ecosystems: a management strategy evaluation for the snow crab fishery in the eastern Bering Sea

2012 ◽  
Vol 70 (5) ◽  
pp. 955-967 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cody S. Szuwalski ◽  
André E. Punt
Keyword(s):  
Fisheries Management ◽  
Bering Sea ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Snow Crab ◽  
Management Strategy Evaluation ◽  
Eastern Bering Sea ◽  
Strategy Evaluation ◽  
Spawning Biomass

Abstract Szuwalski, C., and Punt A. E. 2013. Fisheries management for regime-based ecosystems: a management strategy evaluation for the snow crab fishery in the eastern Bering Sea. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 955–967. Regime shifts are a prominent feature of the physical environment of some ecosystems and have the potential to influence stock productivity. However, few management strategies or harvest control rules (HCRs) consider the possibility of changes in stock productivity. A management strategy evaluation is conducted for the snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) fishery in the eastern Bering Sea, an ecosystem influenced by regime shifts. Operating models that project recruitment as a single average (i.e. the current basis for management advice), regime-based with no relationship between recruitment and spawning biomass, and regime-based with control of recruitment oscillating between environmental conditions and spawning biomass are considered. An HCR that accounts for shifts in recruitment regime is compared with the status quo HCR for each operating model. The regime-based HCR increases yield and decreases variability in yield at the cost of a higher probability of overfishing in regime-based systems. However, the regime-based HCR slightly decreases yield (no change in variability) and increases the probability of overfishing in non-regime-based systems. Identifying changes in productivity that are definitely driven by environmental regime rather than fishing pressure is the largest difficulty in implementing these rules.

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