First-Year Survival of Northern Fur Seals (Callorhinus ursinus) Can Be Explained by Pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) Catches in the Eastern Bering Sea

The Pribilof northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) herd in the eastern Bering Sea has declined by ~70% since the 1970s, for elusive reasons. Competition for pollock (Gadus chalcogramma) with the commercial fishery has been suspected as a contributing factor, but no correlative relationship between fishing activity and fur seal population declines has heretofore been demonstrated. Here, we present evidence for a moderately strong inverse relationship between fishery catches of pollock and first-year survival of fur seals, based on three different approaches to evaluation. We suspect this relationship results from the dependence of lactating female fur seals on locating dense and extensive schools of pollock near the Pribilof Islands to efficiently provide nutrition for their pups, because the pollock fishery also targets these same schools, and when fished, the remnants of these schools are fragmented and dispersed, making them more difficult for fur seals to locate and exploit. Inadequately fed pups are less likely to survive their initial independent residence at sea as they migrate south from the Pribilof Islands in the fall. Our results imply that pollock catches above ~1,000,000 t within ~300 km of the Pribilof Islands may continue to suppress first-year survival of Pribilof fur seals below the estimated equilibrium survival value of 0.50, leading to continued decline of the population.

Bottom–Up Impacts of Forecasted Climate Change on the Eastern Bering Sea Food Web

Recent observations of record low winter sea-ice coverage and warming water temperatures in the eastern Bering Sea have signaled the potential impacts of climate change on this ecosystem, which have implications for commercial fisheries production. We investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change on the eastern Bering Sea food web through the end of the century under medium- and high-emissions climate scenarios in combination with a selection of fisheries management strategies by conducting simulations using a dynamic food web model. The outputs from three global earth system models run under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled using a regional ocean and biogeochemical model to project ecosystem dynamics at the base of the food web. Four fishing scenarios were explored: status quo, no fishing, and two scenarios that alternatively assume increased fishing emphasis on either gadids or flatfishes. Annual fishery quotas were dynamically simulated by combining harvest control rules based on model-simulated stock biomass, while incorporating social and economic tradeoffs induced by the Bering Sea’s combined groundfish harvest cap. There was little predicted difference between the status quo and no fishing scenario for most managed groundfish species biomasses at the end of the century, regardless of emission scenario. Under the status quo fishing scenario, biomass projections for most species and functional groups across trophic levels showed a slow but steady decline toward the end of the century, and most groups were near or below recent historical (1991–2017) biomass levels by 2080. The bottom–up effects of declines in biomass at lower trophic levels as forecasted by the climate-enhanced lower trophic level modeling, drove the biomass trends at higher trophic levels. By 2080, the biomass projections for species and trophic guilds showed very little difference between emission scenarios. Our method for climate-enhanced food web projections can support fisheries managers by informing strategic guidance on the long-term impacts of ecosystem productivity shifts driven by climate change on commercial species and the food web, and how those impacts may interact with different fisheries management scenarios.

Climate warming and the loss of sea ice: the impact of sea-ice variability on the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

We investigated relationships among three metrics of sea-ice cover in eight regions of the eastern Bering Sea and the abundance of Calanus copepods, jellyfish medusae, and year-class strength of walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus). In summer, Calanus spp. were more abundant over the middle shelf when sea ice lingered late into spring, and, to a lesser extent, when February sea-ice cover was heavy. Between 1982 and 1999, there were no significant (p ≤ 0.05) relationships between the amount or timing of sea-ice cover and pollock recruitment. However, between 2000 and 2015, pollock year-class strength was positively correlated with sea ice in the outer and middle shelves, with 17 of 24 regressions significant. Pollock year-class strength was best predicted by days with sea-ice cover after February. Pollock recruitment was positively influenced by copepod numbers, particularly in the middle shelf, with r2 values from 0.36 to 0.47. We hypothesize that the Calanus spp. present in the southeastern Bering Sea are primarily Calanus glacialis that have been advected south in association with sea ice. None of our sea-ice metrics explained the variance in jellyfish biomass. Jellyfish biomass in our study area in the pollock age-0 year was not correlated with pollock recruitment 3 years later.

Predicted shifts of groundfish distribution in the Eastern Bering Sea under climate change, with implications for fish populations and fisheries management

Climate-related distribution shifts for marine species are, in general, amplified in northern latitudes. The objective of this study was to predict future distributions of commercially important species in the eastern Bering Sea under six climate scenarios, by incorporating predictions of future oceanographic conditions. We used species distribution modelling to determine potential distribution changes in four time periods (2013–2017, 2030–2039, 2060–2069, and 2090-2099) relative to 1982–2012 for 16 marine fish and invertebrates. Most species were predicted to have significant shifts in the centre of gravity of the predicted abundance, the area occupied, and the proportion of the predicted abundance found in the standard bottom trawl survey area. On average the shifts were modest, averaging 35.2 km (ranging from 1 to 202 km). There were significant differences in the predicted trend for distribution metrics among climate scenarios, with the most extensive changes in distribution resulting from Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenarios. The variability in distributional shifts among years and climate scenarios was high, although the magnitudes were low. This study provides a basis for understanding where fish populations might expand or contract in future years. This will provide managers’ information that can help guide appropriate actions under warming conditions.