The state of presidential election forecasting: The 2004 experience

2008 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 310-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randall J. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
The State ◽  
Election Forecasting

scholarly journals The State of Human Rights and Political Freedoms in Belarus: Was the Crisis Inevitable?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Kolarzik ◽  
◽  
Aram Terzyan
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
The State ◽  
Political Control ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Authoritarian Rule ◽  
Political Freedoms

The rule of Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus has created one of the most resilient authoritarian regimes in post-communist Europe. Meanwhile, the turmoil triggered by the 2020 presidential election has put in the spotlight the mounting challenges facing Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule. This paper investigates the state of human rights and political freedoms in Belarus, focusing on the main rationale behind the turmoil surrounding the 2020 presidential election. It concludes that the political crisis following the elections is the unsurprising consequence of Lukashenko’s diminishing ability to maintain power or concentrate political control by preserving elite unity, controlling elections, and/or using force against opponents.

The Decline of Know Nothingism: 1856–57

2018 ◽  
pp. 76-107
Author(s):  
Marius M. Carriere
Keyword(s):  
New Orleans ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
State Legislature ◽  
The State ◽  
Ultimate Failure

This chapter discusses the continued Know Nothing election setbacks in the mid to late 1850s. However, the chapter emphasizes the belief that only the Know Nothings, according to many members, could avoid the sectional tension of the 1850s. While the state elections proved futile for the Know Nothings, the party continued to do well in Greater New Orleans. The chapter also continues to describe how Louisiana Democrats branded the Know Nothings as proscriptionists and abolitionists. The presidential election of 1860 is highlighted in this chapter with sectional stress assuming more importance than native Americanism. The ultimate failure of the Know Nothings in the state follows the party’s 1860 presidential election defeat and its gubernatorial defeat in 1857. Finally, the chapter summarizes how inexperience and lack of Know Nothing unity adversely affected the Know Nothings in these elections, as well as in the state legislature.

George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Post-Conflict Northern Ireland

2019 ◽  
pp. 259-276
Author(s):  
Andrew Sanders
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Northern Irish ◽  
2008 Presidential Election ◽  
Post Conflict

After Clinton’s second term in office ended, President George W Bush moved the Special Envoy to Northern Ireland to the State Department, but his Envoys, led by Richard Haass and Mitchell Reiss, were no less engaged in Northern Irish affairs as the political figures there sought to create a functional government at Stormont Parliament Buildings. A series of significant obstacles emerged, but the Northern Ireland Assembly finally formed in 2007 before Bush left office. He was succeeded by President Barack Obama who had little interest in Northern Ireland but Obama’s initial Secretary of State, former Senator Hillary Clinton, was well-versed in Northern Irish issues. This chapter also examines the role of Northern Ireland in the 2008 Democratic Primary contest and, to a lesser extent, the 2008 Presidential Election.

The Press and the Presidential Election of 1860

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berry Craig
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
The State ◽  
The Press ◽  
The Future ◽  
Secession Crisis

Voters had four candidates to choose from in the presidential election of 1860. The Kentucky press endorsed three of the hopefuls, the winner not among them. The Louisville papers reflected the divisions in the state. The Journal endorsed Constitutional Unionist John Bell; the Courier rallied behind Southern Democrat John C. Breckinridge, a Kentuckian; the Democrat lined up with Stephen A. Douglas, the Northern Democrat; and no paper of any consequence (perhaps no paper at all) supported the Republican Lincoln. Bell carried the state, followed by Breckinridge, Douglas, and Lincoln. The war of words over the presidential race became even more heated during the secession crisis. The future of the Union was at stake in the former; Kentucky’s future hung in the balance in the latter.

WHY THE STATE-BY-STATE POLITICAL ECONOMY MODEL DID IT RIGHT

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (01) ◽  
pp. 45-46
Author(s):  
Bruno Jerôme ◽  
Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
The State ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Final State ◽  
Economy Model ◽  
Error Margin ◽  
Us Presidential Election

One hundred and forty two days before the 2012 US presidential election our final State-by-State Political-Economy Model gave an advantage to Barack Obama with 51.6% of the popular vote (error margin ± 4.47) and 324 electoral votes (Jerôme and Jerôme-Speziari 2012). On November 6, 2012, with 51.6% of the vote and 332 electoral votes, the Democratic incumbent wins a second term. Regarding certainty of an Obama plurality, the model gave a probability of victory by 64%. In 2012, it seems that this was enough to ensure a good predictability.

scholarly journals Lessons to Build On: The 1994 Mexican Presidential Election

1998 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renee G. Scherlen
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
The State ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Partido Revolucionario Institucional ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Mexican Politics

The 1994 presidential election presents a paradox for students of Mexican politics in particular and democratization in general. The year witnessed many numerous and far-reaching changes, both planned and unplanned. An uprising in the state of Chiapas; the assassination of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) candidate, Luis Donaldo Colosio; a sweeping electoral reform; and a hotly contested presidential race marked the unprecedented year in Mexican politics. The election results, however, were the same as in every previous presidential election for more than sixty years: a victory by the PRI candidate, in this case Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León. How to explain this? What significance does the outcome have for understanding the process of regime democratization?

How Do We Know That Russian Spies and Saboteurs (aka Hackers and Trolls) Intervened in the 2016 Presidential Election?

Cyberwar ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
Kathleen Hall Jamieson
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
The State ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Intelligence Agencies

Chapter 1 of Cyberwar outlines how we know that Russian agents, in the form of both hackers and trolls, intervened in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. After briefly summarizing the state of U.S.-Russia relations leading up to the 2016 U.S. election, this chapter details Trump’s and Putin’s denials of Russian interventions and the conspiracy theories used to deflect attention from the Russian origins of hacked content. The chapter also synopsizes the findings of U.S. intelligence agencies that confirmed Russian involvement and outlines the scope of the book and the assumptions underlying it.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document