Reconstructing the great Benga cyclone of 1737

Having established that the figure of 300,000 quoted as the human casualty in the legendary south of 1737 was a implant (Sen Sarma 1994) and the simultaneous earthquake a myth (Sen Sarma 1993, Bilham, 1994) it was necessary to freshly evaluate that storm as to its severity and destructive impact. The strength of0 storm was assessed by using the reported surge of 40 ft as the output in Ghosh’s (1977) surge computing scheme and arriving at the required input p. The probable track of the storm was reconstructed with the help of an analogue. The likely area inundated by 'significant' surge was demarcated by analogy with 1970 Bangladesh storm (Frank and Husain 1971). The affected population of that area was estimated from the decadal figures for Bengal area going backward from recent times to 1801, Finally, the number of lives lost was inferred from the available data on the mortality ratio in the Andhra cyclone of 1977. It is estimated that the cyclone of 17.37 was a T 7 storm and had taken 35,000 lives (the error margin being 10,000 on either side of that figure).

Adapting Blood DNA Methylation Aging Clocks for Use in Saliva Samples With Cell-type Deconvolution

DeepMAge is a deep-learning DNA methylation aging clock that measures the organismal pace of aging with the information from human epigenetic profiles. In blood samples, DeepMAge can predict chronological age within a 2.8 years error margin, but in saliva samples, its performance is drastically reduced since aging clocks are restricted by the training set domain. However, saliva is an attractive fluid for genomic studies due to its availability, compared to other tissues, including blood. In this article, we display how cell type deconvolution and elastic net can be used to expand the domain of deep aging clocks to other tissues. Using our approach, DeepMAge’s error in saliva samples was reduced from 20.9 to 4.7 years with no retraining.

Comparison of spotlighting monitoring data of European brown hare (Lepus europaeus) relative population densities with infrared thermography in agricultural landscapes in Northern Germany

A successful wildlife management requires monitoring. Including non-scientific volunteers into monitoring actions is a common way for obtaining long-term and comprehensive data. Hunters present a valuable target group as they are spread out nationwide in Germany and additionally, they provide a know-how regarding game species. Since 1990s, various German hunting associations established monitoring programs and motivated hunters to join, in order to record population sizes of huntable game species under standardized census methods. The aim of this study was to compare instructed hunters performed spotlight counts of European brown hares with thermography in three federal states (Lower-Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, North Rhine-Westphalia) in 2015–2018 in Northern Germany. Therefore, we modelled the number of hares counted by both methods with the associated observed area. Moreover, we performed repeated thermographic counts in selected areas and performed distance sampling to test the deviations of estimated population densities within a short time period. Repeated infrared thermographic counts on three consecutive nights show a coefficient of variation from 6.6% to 15.5% with deviations of 2.2–2.7 hares per 100 ha, while the method of distance sampling reveals minor deviations of 0.9–1.7 hares per 100 ha and a coefficient of variation from 3.1–7.4%. The coefficient of variation value between spotlight and infrared thermographic count lies between 0 to 21.4%. Our model confirmed no significant differences between the European brown hare density estimations based on a spotlight count and an infrared thermographic count on the following night. The results provide insight into the dimension of the error margin of density estimations performed by spotlight counts. Therefore, we recommend to take possible counting errors into account and to ideally perform repeated counts to assess the error margin for each counting site. This would help for example to quantify the uncertainty in the calculation of mortality rates. Additionally, our results show that monitoring data generated by instructed hunters can provide reliable and valid data, if implemented and conducted in a standardized scientific way.

Reservoir Sizing at Draft Level of 75% of Mean Annual Flow Using Drought Magnitude Based Method on Canadian Rivers

On a global basis, there is trend that a majority of reservoirs are sized using a draft of 75% of the mean annual flow (0.75 MAF). The reservoir volumes based on the proposed drought magnitude (DM) method and the sequent peak algorithm (SPA) at 0.75 MAF draft were compared at the annual, monthly and weekly scales using the flow sequences of 25 Canadian rivers. In our assessment, the monthly scale is adequate for such analyses. The DM method, although capable of using flow data at any time scale, has been demonstrated using monthly standardized hydrological index (SHI) sequences. The moving average (MA) smoothing of the monthly SHI sequences formed the basis in the DM method for estimating the reservoir volume through the use of the extreme number theorem, and the hypothesis that drought magnitude is equal to the product of the drought intensity and drought length. The truncation level in the SHI sequences was found as SHIo [ = (0.75 ‒ 1) µo/σo], where µo and σo are the overall mean and standard deviation of the monthly flows. The DM-based estimates for the deficit volumes and the SPA-based reservoir volumes were found comparable within an error margin of ±18%.

B. Analisis Komparasi Model Altman, Zmijewski Dan Springate Untuk Memprediksi Financial Distress Pada Perusahaan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia

ABSTRAKSI Financial distress adalah suatu keadaan dimana perusahaan mengalami kesulitan keuangan yang jika tidak segera diatasi atau diambil langkah-langkah penyelamatan, akan berujung pada bangkrutnya atau pailitnya suatu perusahaan. sangat penting kiranya bagi setiap perusahaan untuk bisa memprediksi kejadian financial distress di perusahaannya. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui bagaimana memprediksi financial distress di masa mendatang dengan menambil data-data dari laporan keuangan yang ada. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kuantitatif denngan menggunakan model-model yang dikemukakan oleh tokoh-tokoh akademisi terdahulu untuk memprediksi financial distress. Teknik analisis data menggunakan tiga model yang telah dijabarkan oleh akademisi terdahulu yaitu Model Altman (Z-Score), Model Zmijewski (X-Score), dan Model Springate (S-Score). Hasil Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa analisis rasio keuangan pada laporan keuangan yang di-publish oleh perusahaan yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia tetapi kemudian mengalami delisting di tahun 2018 bisa memprediksi terjadinya financial distress. Perusahaan yang mengalami financial distress dengan dibuktikan di-delistingnya perusahaan tersebut dari Bursa Efek Indonesia dan menjadi objek penelitian ini berjumlah empat perusahaan. Dari keempat perusahaan yang mengalami delisting tersebut kemudian dianalisis rasio keuangan pada laporan keuangannya hingga dua tahun sebelum terjadinya financial distress. Dari analisis rasio keuangan ini kemudian dimasukkan ke dalam model yang telah diteorikan oleh tokoh-tokoh tadi. Dari analisis rasio keuangan dan kemudian dianalisis menggunakan model yang dibuat oleh tokoh-tokoh terdahulu mempunyai hasil bahwa model yang dibuat oleh tokoh-tokoh tersebut akurat untuk memprediksi kejadian financial distress di masa mendatang. Urutan akurasi dari prediksi financial distress ini adalah Model Altman (Z-Score) yang mampu memprediksi sejak dua tahun sebelum terjadinya financial distress kemudian berikutnya adalah Model Zmijewski yang akurat memprediksi setahun sebelum terjadinya financial distress. Terakhir adalah Model Springate (S-Score) yang bisa memprediksi sejak dua tahun sebelum terjadi financial distress akan tetapi model ini mempuyani error margin yang cukup tinggi yaitu 25%. Kata Kunci: Financial Distress, Analisis Rasio Keuangan, Model Altman, Model Zmijewski, Model Springate

Reliability of Kinovea Software for Ergonomic Analysis Calibrated Using Cost-Effective Equipment

When the measurable quantities are not given a value for the amount considered or found a standard for the quantity, it requires calibra-tion. Calibration is a preparation process before starting the test. It is a process of finding the relationship between two unknown quanti-ties. If one of the quantities is known because it is made or set with another device, another measurement is made as similar way as possible with the first device using a second device. The measurable quantities may differ in two devices which are equivalent. The de-vice with the known or assigned correctness is called the standard. The second device is the unit under test, test instrument or any of several other names for the device calibrated. [1] The process can reduce the error margin of the tested measurement and that will prevent any unnecessary problems that may harm human in certain application applied.

PENINGKATAN ORGANIZATIONAL CITIZENSHIP BEHAVIOR MELALUI PENGEMBANGAN KEPEMIMPINAN TRANSFORMASIONAL DAN KEPUASAN KERJA

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menemukan upaya meningkatkan OCB melalui penelitian terhadap hubungan antara kepemimpinan transformasional dan kepuasan kerja dengan OCB. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode deskriptif korelasional dengan menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif. Populasi dalam penelitian ini Guru Tetap Yayasan (GTY) pada 9 SMK Swasta yang berada di Kecamatan Cibungbulang Kabupaten Bogor dengan jumlah 117 orang guru. Teknik pengambilan sampel menggunakan proporsional random sampling dengan rumus Slovin dengan error margin 5% dengan jumlah sampel sebanyak 91 orang guru. Penelitian ini menghasilkan kesimpulan 1) Terdapat hubungan positif antara Kepemimpinan Transformasional dengan Organizational Citizenship Behavior. Kekuatan hubungan antara Kepemimpinan Transformasional (X1) dengan Organizational Citizenship Behavior (Y) ditunjukkan dengan koefisien korelasi ry1 = 0,603 dan Kepemimpinan Transformasional memberikan kontribusi sebesar 36,4% terhadap Organizational Citizenship Behavior. 2) Terdapat hubungan positif antara Kepuasan Kerja dengan Organizational Citizenship Behavior. Kekuatan hubungan antara Kepuasan Kerja (X2) dengan Organizational Citizenship Behavior (Y) ditunjukkan dengan koefisien korelasi ry2 = 0,509 dan Kepuasan Kerja memberikan kontribusi sebesar 25,9% terhadap Organizational Citizenship Behavior. 3) Terdapat hubungan positif antara Kepemimpinan Transformasional (X1) dan Kepuasan Kerja (X2) secara bersama-sama dengan Organizational Citizenship Behavior (Y) yang ditunjukkan dengan koefisien korelasi ry12 = 0,685 dan Kepemimpinan Transformasional dan Kepuasan Kerja secara bersama-sama mempunyai kontribusi sebesar 46,9% terhadap Organizational Citizenship Behavior. Berdasarkan temuan tersebut OCB dosen dapat ditingkatkan melalui perbaikan kepemimpinan dan kepuasan kerja. Kata Kunci : Kepemimpinan Transformasional, Kepuasan Kerja, Organizational Citizenship Behavior

Procedure for Measuring the Weight Fraction of Products of Catalytic Pyrolysis of Ethylbenzene

A capillary column with functionalized poly(1-trimethylsilyl-1-propyne) (PTMSP/N2O) was proposed to use for detecting products of catalytic pyrolysis of ethylbenzene. The capillary PTMSP/N2O column separated selectively light C1–C2 (methane, ethane, ethylene, acetylene) and aromatic (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, styrene) hydrocarbons. A procedure for gas-phase measuring weight fractions of light C1–C2 and aromatic hydrocarbons was developed. The analytical measurement range was 2.9·10–8 to 1.2·10–1 mg/mL for light C1–C2 components and 3.5·10–11 to 4.0·10–3 mg/mL for liquid components. The analytical error margin at repetition ranged from 1.9 % to 4.7 %.