WHY THE STATE-BY-STATE POLITICAL ECONOMY MODEL DID IT RIGHT

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (01) ◽  
pp. 45-46
Author(s):  
Bruno Jerôme ◽  
Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
The State ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Final State ◽  
Economy Model ◽  
Error Margin ◽  
Us Presidential Election

One hundred and forty two days before the 2012 US presidential election our final State-by-State Political-Economy Model gave an advantage to Barack Obama with 51.6% of the popular vote (error margin ± 4.47) and 324 electoral votes (Jerôme and Jerôme-Speziari 2012). On November 6, 2012, with 51.6% of the vote and 332 electoral votes, the Democratic incumbent wins a second term. Regarding certainty of an Obama plurality, the model gave a probability of victory by 64%. In 2012, it seems that this was enough to ensure a good predictability.

scholarly journals Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote

2014 ◽  
Vol 47 (02) ◽  
pp. 427-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Graefe ◽  
J. Scott Armstrong ◽  
Randall J. Jones ◽  
Alfred G. Cuzán
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Combined Forecasts

ABSTRACTWe review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as well as the forecasts fromFiveThirtyEight.com. Gains in accuracy were particularly large early in the campaign, when uncertainty about the election outcome is typically high. The results confirm prior research showing that combining is one of the most effective approaches to generating accurate forecasts.

George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Post-Conflict Northern Ireland

2019 ◽  
pp. 259-276
Author(s):  
Andrew Sanders
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Northern Irish ◽  
2008 Presidential Election ◽  
Post Conflict

After Clinton’s second term in office ended, President George W Bush moved the Special Envoy to Northern Ireland to the State Department, but his Envoys, led by Richard Haass and Mitchell Reiss, were no less engaged in Northern Irish affairs as the political figures there sought to create a functional government at Stormont Parliament Buildings. A series of significant obstacles emerged, but the Northern Ireland Assembly finally formed in 2007 before Bush left office. He was succeeded by President Barack Obama who had little interest in Northern Ireland but Obama’s initial Secretary of State, former Senator Hillary Clinton, was well-versed in Northern Irish issues. This chapter also examines the role of Northern Ireland in the 2008 Democratic Primary contest and, to a lesser extent, the 2008 Presidential Election.

The 2016 Election: Like 1888 but not 1876 or 2000

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Barthélémy ◽  
Mathieu Martin ◽  
Ashley Piggins
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Anomalous Behavior ◽  
Electoral College ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
The Us ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
House Size

ABSTRACTDonald J. Trump won the 2016 US presidential election with fewer popular votes than Hillary R. Clinton. This is the fourth time this has happened, the others being 1876, 1888, and 2000. In earlier work, we analyzed these elections (and others) and showed how the electoral winner can often depend on the size of the US House of Representatives. This work was inspired by Neubauer and Zeitlin (2003, 721–5) in their paper, “Outcomes of Presidential Elections and the House Size.” A sufficiently larger House would have given electoral victories to the popular vote winner in both 1876 and 2000. An exception is the election of 1888. We show that Trump’s victory in 2016 is like Harrison’s in 1888 and unlike Hayes’s in 1876 and Bush’s in 2000. This article updates our previous work to include the 2016 election. It also draws attention to some of the anomalous behavior that can arise under the Electoral College.

The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign

2010 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 545-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Scotto ◽  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Allan Kornberg ◽  
Jason Reifler ◽  
David Sanders ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
2008 Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Election Campaign

Forecasting the 2008 U.S. House, Senate and Presidential Elections at the District and State Level

2008 ◽  
Vol 41 (04) ◽  
pp. 723-728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Klarner
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
State Level ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
The State ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
White House ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
The U.S

This paper applies the forecasting models of Klarner and Buchanan (2006a) for the U.S. Senate and Klarner and Buchanan (2006b) for the U.S. House of Representatives to the upcoming 2008 elections. Forecasts are also conducted for the 2008 presidential race at the state level. The forecasts presented in this article, made July 28, 2008 (99 days before the election), predicted an 11-seat gain for the Democrats in the House of Representatives, a three-seat gain for the Democrats in the Senate, and that Barack Obama would obtain 53.0% of the popular vote and 346 electoral votes. Furthermore, Obama was forecast to have an 83.6% chance of winning the White House and an 85.9% chance of winning the popular vote.

The Keys to the White House

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allan J. Lichtman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
President Obama ◽  
White House ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Us Presidential Election

The Keys to the White House are an index-based prediction system that retrospectively account for the popular-vote winners of every US presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and prospectively forecast the winners of every presidential election from 1984 through 2008. The Keys demonstrate that American presidential elections do not turn on events of the campaign, but rather on the performance of the party controlling the White House. The Keys hold important lessons for politics in the United States and worldwide. A preliminary forecast based on the Keys indicates that President Obama is a likely winner in 2012, but also reveals the specific problems at home at abroad that could thwart his re-election.

The Keys to the White House

2012 ◽  
pp. 214-225
Author(s):  
Allan J. Lichtman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
President Obama ◽  
White House ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Us Presidential Election

The Keys to the White House are an index-based prediction system that retrospectively account for the popular-vote winners of every US presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and prospectively forecast the winners of every presidential election from 1984 through 2008. The Keys demonstrate that American presidential elections do not turn on events of the campaign, but rather on the performance of the party controlling the White House. The Keys hold important lessons for politics in the United States and worldwide. A preliminary forecast based on the Keys indicates that President Obama is a likely winner in 2012, but also reveals the specific problems at home at abroad that could thwart his re-election.

CLOSENESS COUNTS IN HORSE SHOES, DANCING, AND FORECASTING

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (01) ◽  
pp. 40-41
Author(s):  
James E. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Economy Model ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
To Receive

On September 10, 2012, immediately following the close of the Democratic Party's national nominating convention and 57 days before Election Day on November 6, my Convention Bump and Economy Model predicted that Barack Obama was likely to receive 51.3% of the national two-party popular vote. The Convention Bump and Economy Model consists of Gallup's preconvention preference poll, the net convention bump in the polls, and an adjusted second quarter GDP growth rate. The forecast pegged the certainty of an Obama plurality at 67%. No sure thing, but more likely than not. The traditional Trial-Heat and Economy Model predicted Obama's vote at 52.0%. The Convention Bump and Economy Model's prediction was the preferred forecast in 2012 because of the lateness of the parties' nominating conventions. Democrats did not even begin their convention until after Labor Day.

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