Detection of long-term effect in forecasting municipal solid waste using a long short-term memory neural network

2020 ◽  
pp. 125187
Author(s):  
Dongjie Niu ◽  
Fan Wu ◽  
Shijin Dai ◽  
Sheng He ◽  
Boran Wu
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.15) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Said Jadid Abdulkadir ◽  
Hitham Alhussian ◽  
Muhammad Nazmi ◽  
Asim A Elsheikh

Forecasting time-series data are imperative especially when planning is required through modelling using uncertain knowledge of future events. Recurrent neural network models have been applied in the industry and outperform standard artificial neural networks in forecasting, but fail in long term time-series forecasting due to the vanishing gradient problem. This study offers a robust solution that can be implemented for long-term forecasting using a special architecture of recurrent neural network known as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model to overcome the vanishing gradient problem. LSTM is specially designed to avoid the long-term dependency problem as their default behavior. Empirical analysis is performed using quantitative forecasting metrics and comparative model performance on the forecasted outputs. An evaluation analysis is performed to validate that the LSTM model provides better forecasted outputs on Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) in terms of error metrics as compared to other forecasting models.  


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hayrettin Okut

The long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) is a type of recurrent neural network (RNN). During the training of RNN architecture, sequential information is used and travels through the neural network from input vector to the output neurons, while the error is calculated and propagated back through the network to update the network parameters. Information in these networks incorporates loops into the hidden layer. Loops allow information to flow multi-directionally so that the hidden state signifies past information held at a given time step. Consequently, the output is dependent on the previous predictions which are already known. However, RNNs have limited capacity to bridge more than a certain number of steps. Mainly this is due to the vanishing of gradients which causes the predictions to capture the short-term dependencies as information from earlier steps decays. As more layers in RNN containing activation functions are added, the gradient of the loss function approaches zero. The LSTM neural networks (LSTM-ANNs) enable learning long-term dependencies. LSTM introduces a memory unit and gate mechanism to enable capture of the long dependencies in a sequence. Therefore, LSTM networks can selectively remember or forget information and are capable of learn thousands timesteps by structures called cell states and three gates.


2021 ◽  
Vol 248 ◽  
pp. 01017
Author(s):  
Eugene Yu. Shchetinin ◽  
Leonid Sevastianov

Computer paralinguistic analysis is widely used in security systems, biometric research, call centers and banks. Paralinguistic models estimate different physical properties of voice, such as pitch, intensity, formants and harmonics to classify emotions. The main goal is to find such features that would be robust to outliers and will retain variety of human voice properties at the same time. Moreover, the model used must be able to estimate features on a time scale for an effective analysis of voice variability. In this paper a paralinguistic model based on Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM) neural network is described, which was trained for vocal-based emotion recognition. The main advantage of this network architecture is that each module of the network consists of several interconnected layers, providing the ability to recognize flexible long-term dependencies in data, which is important in context of vocal analysis. We explain the architecture of a bidirectional neural network model, its main advantages over regular neural networks and compare experimental results of BLSTM network with other models.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 104
Author(s):  
Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu ◽  
Alexandru Pîrjan

The accurate forecasting of the hourly month-ahead electricity consumption represents a very important aspect for non-household electricity consumers and system operators, and at the same time represents a key factor in what regards energy efficiency and achieving sustainable economic, business, and management operations. In this context, we have devised, developed, and validated within the paper an hourly month ahead electricity consumption forecasting method. This method is based on a bidirectional long-short-term memory (BiLSTM) artificial neural network (ANN) enhanced with a multiple simultaneously decreasing delays approach coupled with function fitting neural networks (FITNETs). The developed method targets the hourly month-ahead total electricity consumption at the level of a commercial center-type consumer and for the hourly month ahead consumption of its refrigerator storage room. The developed approach offers excellent forecasting results, highlighted by the validation stage’s results along with the registered performance metrics, namely 0.0495 for the root mean square error (RMSE) performance metric for the total hourly month-ahead electricity consumption and 0.0284 for the refrigerator storage room. We aimed for and managed to attain an hourly month-ahead consumed electricity prediction without experiencing a significant drop in the forecasting accuracy that usually tends to occur after the first two weeks, therefore achieving a reliable method that satisfies the contractor’s needs, being able to enhance his/her activity from the economic, business, and management perspectives. Even if the devised, developed, and validated forecasting solution for the hourly consumption targets a commercial center-type consumer, based on its accuracy, this solution can also represent a useful tool for other non-household electricity consumers due to its generalization capability.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document