Water balance of a lake with floodplain buffering: Lake Tana, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

2015 ◽  
Vol 522 ◽  
pp. 174-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mekete Dessie ◽  
Niko E.C. Verhoest ◽  
Valentijn R.N. Pauwels ◽  
Enyew Adgo ◽  
Jozef Deckers ◽  
...  
2006 ◽  
Vol 316 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 233-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kebede ◽  
Y. Travi ◽  
T. Alemayehu ◽  
V. Marc

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bitew G. Tassew ◽  
Mulugeta A. Belete ◽  
K. Miegel

Understanding the complex relationships between rainfall and runoff processes is necessary for the proper estimation of the quantity of runoff generated in a watershed. The surface runoff was simulated using the Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) for the Gilgel Abay Catchment (1609 km2), Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. The catchment was delineated and its properties were extracted from a 30 m × 30 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the Lake Tana Basin. The meteorological model was developed within HEC-HMS from rainfall data and the control specifications defined the period and time step of the simulation run. To account for the loss, runoff estimation, and flow routing, Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN), Soil Conservation Service Unit Hydrograph (SCS-UH) and Muskingum methods were used respectively. The rainfall-runoff simulation was conducted using six extreme daily time series events. Initial results showed that there is a clear difference between the observed and simulated peak flows and the total volume. Thereafter, a model calibration with an optimization method and sensitivity analysis was carried out. The result of the sensitivity analysis showed that the curve number is the sensitive parameter. In addition, the model validation results showed a reasonable difference in peak flow (Relative Error in peak, REP = 1.49%) and total volume (Relative Error in volume, REV = 2.38%). The comparison of the observed and simulated hydrographs and the model performance (NSE = 0.884) and their correlation (R2 = 0.925) showed that the model is appropriate for hydrological simulations in the Gilgel Abay Catchment.


2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 2179-2193 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Tekleab ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
Y. Mohamed ◽  
H. H. G. Savenije ◽  
M. Temesgen ◽  
...  

Abstract. The water balances of twenty catchments in the Upper Blue Nile basin have been analyzed using a top-down modeling approach based on Budyko's hypotheses. The objective of this study is to obtain better understanding of water balance dynamics of upper Blue Nile catchments on annual and monthly time scales and on a spatial scale of meso scale to large scale. The water balance analysis using a Budyko-type curve at annual scale reveals that the aridity index does not exert a first order control in most of the catchments. This implies the need to increase model complexity to monthly time scale to include the effects of seasonal soil moisture dynamics. The dynamic water balance model used in this study predicts the direct runoff and other processes based on the limit concept; i.e. for dry environments since rainfall amount is small, the aridity index approaches to infinity or equivalently evaporation approaches rainfall and for wet environments where the rainfall amount is large, the aridity index approaches to zero and actual evaporation approaches the potential evaporation. The uncertainty of model parameters has been assessed using the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) methodology. The results show that the majority of the parameters are reasonably well identifiable. However, the baseflow recession constant was poorly identifiable. Parameter uncertainty and model structural errors could be the reason for the poorly identifiable parameter. Moreover, a multi-objective model calibration strategy has been employed to emphasize the different aspects of the hydrographs on low and high flows. The model has been calibrated and validated against observed streamflow time series and it shows good performance for the twenty study catchments in the upper Blue Nile. During the calibration period (1995–2000) the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (E NS) for monthly flow prediction varied between 0.52 to 0.93 (dominated by high flows), while it varied between 0.32 to 0.90 using logarithms of flow series (indicating the goodness of low flow simulations). The model is parsimonious and it is suggested that the calibrated parameters could be used after some more regionalization efforts to predict monthly stream flows in ungauged catchments of the Upper Blue Nile basin, which is the vast majority of catchments in that region.


2011 ◽  
pp. 69-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom H.M. Rientjes ◽  
Janaka B.U. Perera ◽  
Alemseged T. Haile ◽  
Ambro S.M. Gieske ◽  
Martijn J. Booij ◽  
...  

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1469
Author(s):  
Alemu Yenehun ◽  
Mekete Dessie ◽  
Mulugeta Azeze ◽  
Fenta Nigate ◽  
Ashebir Sewale Belay ◽  
...  

The Lake Tana Basin, comprising the largest natural lake in Ethiopia, is the source and the uppermost part of the Upper Blue Nile Basin. In this review paper, research papers, mainly on the rainfall-runoff modeling and lake water balance, and on the hydrogeology, have been reviewed. The earlier water balance estimation attempts used simple conceptual and statistical approaches and calculate on a monthly timescale. More recent research has been using advanced semi-physically or physically based distributed hydrological models. Accordingly, mean annual precipitation over the lake was estimated in the range 36.1–53.1%; lake evaporation at 45.3–57.5%; river inflow (all gauged and estimated ungauged) at 43.6–63.9%; and river (lake) water outflow at 0–9.2%. With the few isotope studies, groundwater inflow and outflow are found insignificant. Different studies had estimated groundwater recharge, ranging from 57 mm to 850 mm. The basin has a heterogenous aquifer system consisting of different volcanic rocks and alluvio-lacustrine sediments. Generally, groundwater with low TDS, Ca–Mg–HCO3 type, isotopically relatively enriched, and high TDS, Na–HCO3 type, isotopically relatively depleted, water types have been identified. In this paper, major research gaps such as aquifer hydraulic characterization, surface-groundwater interaction, groundwater flow and groundwater balance have been identified. Hence, future research shall focus on the groundwater resources, so that existing surface water studies are updated and future water usage options are explored.


2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 551-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Elshamy ◽  
I. A. Seierstad ◽  
A. Sorteberg

Abstract. This study analyses the output of 17 general circulation models (GCMs) included in the 4th IPCC assessment report. Downscaled precipitation and potential (reference crop) evapotranspiration (PET) scenarios for the 2081–2098 period were constructed for the upper Blue Nile basin. These were used to drive a fine-scale hydrological model of the Nile Basin to assess their impacts on the flows of the upper Blue Nile at Diem, which accounts for about 60% of the mean annual discharge of the Nile at Dongola. There is no consensus among the GCMs on the direction of precipitation change. Changes in total annual precipitation range between −15% to +14% but more models report reductions (10) than those reporting increases (7). Several models (6) report small changes within 5%. The ensemble mean of all models shows almost no change in the annual total rainfall. All models predict the temperature to increase between 2°C and 5°C and consequently PET to increase by 2–14%. Changes to the water balance are assessed using the Budyko framework. The basin is shown to belong to a moisture constrained regime. However, during the wet season the basin is largely energy constrained. For no change in rainfall, increasing PET thus leads to a reduced wet season runoff coefficient. The ensemble mean runoff coefficient (about 20% for baseline simulations) is reduced by about 3.5%. Assuming no change or moderate changes in rainfall, the simulations presented here indicate that the water balance of the upper Blue Nile basin may become more moisture constrained in the future.


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