Developing a novel cash flow risk analysis framework for construction projects based on 5D BIM

2021 ◽  
pp. 103341
Author(s):  
Alireza Amin Ranjbar ◽  
Ramin Ansari ◽  
Roohollah Taherkhani ◽  
M. Reza Hosseini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Cash Flow Risk

scholarly journals Construction Cash Flow Risk Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 269
Author(s):  
Hasan Mahmoud ◽  
Vian Ahmed ◽  
Salwa Beheiry
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Capital Projects ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Cash Flow Risk ◽  
The Impact

As investment increases in capital projects, financial risks increase, and cash flow prediction and control become more paramount. Higher risks could hinder project performance and increase the chances of failure in multiple aspects of a project. While there are models that aim to assess and forecast risks in the construction industry, none present a technique to include the impact of risks on a project’s cash flow. Therefore, cash flow forecasts tend to exceed the actual cash flow of a project due to inaccurate risk assessment. Thus, this paper presents the Cash Flow Risk Index (CFRI) development process quantifying the impact of risks on a project’s cash flow from an owner’s perspective. To that end, the study explored the literature to identify the risk factors that might impact a construction projects’ cash flow and uncovered 44 factors. The study also validated and consolidated these factors to build a CFRI via a Delphi exercise, which reduced the factors from 44 to 36. In further iterations, the 36 factors were also shared with 32 construction industry professionals to rate their relative importance on a five-point Likert scale, from which relative importance index and weights were obtained. As a result, the CFRI was developed to measure the impact of different risk factors on a typical construction project’s cash flow.

Reduced Computing Time in Cash Flow Risk Analysis for Microcomputers

1986 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.E. Crout ◽  
R.A. Startzman ◽  
R.A. Wattenbarger
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Computing Time ◽  
Cash Flow Risk

scholarly journals AN INVESTIGATION ON THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURE FORECASTING

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 759-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Ross ◽  
Katie Dalton ◽  
Begum Sertyesilisik
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Case Study Research ◽  
Research Strategy ◽  
Flow Models ◽  
Improved Model ◽  
Work Affect ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast ◽  
Parameter Values

This study aims to determine the accuracy of the cash flow models and to investigate if these models could be more accurate if they accounted for the potentially influential variables specific to individual construction projects. An analytical case study research strategy has been implemented in collecting data for the construction projects. The data collected has been tested against recognised models. Statistical analyses have been carried out on the data for the specified variables, culminating in the potential proposal of an improved model with respect to these identified variables. The results revealed that the independent variables (type of construction, procurement route and type of work) affect the cash flow forecast. The findings suggested that a model could be more accurate with the input of more job-specific variables and that Hudson's DHSS model is best suited to a construction project procured traditionally. Adopting the ‘trial and error’ approach, Hudson's DHSS model has been recognised as an accurate model that could be adapted slightly, through changing the parameter values. The clients and the contractors are the main beneficiaries approached for this study.

scholarly journals Research for Risk Management of Construction Projects in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2034
Author(s):  
Chien-Liang Lin ◽  
Bey-Kun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Sustainable Operation ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Risk Managers

Risks inevitably exist in all stages of a project. In a construction project, which is highly dynamic and complex, risk factors affect the expected achievement rates of the three main performance goals, namely schedule, cost, and quality. A comprehensive risk management procedure requires three crucial steps: risk confirmation, analysis, and treatment. Risk analysis is the core of risk management. Through structural equation modeling, this study developed a risk analysis model that takes a different perspective and considered the occurrence probability of risk events and the extent to which these events affect a project. The contractor dimension was discovered to exert the strongest influence on an overall project, followed by the subcontractor and design dimensions. This paper proposes a novel construction project risk analysis model, which considers the entire project. The proposed model can be used as a reference for risk managers to make decisions about project risks, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of saving resources and the sustainable operation of the construction project.

scholarly journals Development of conceptual model of project value dynamics analysis in conditions of uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (13(112)) ◽  
pp. 101-112
Author(s):  
Olexander Bugrov ◽  
Olena Bugrova
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Dimensional Space ◽  
Value Engineering ◽  
Cost Ratio ◽  
Benefit Cost Ratio ◽  
Annual Total ◽  
Benefit Cost ◽  
The Impact

A conceptual model for analyzing the dynamics of the value of the project, achieved as a result of engineering, under conditions of uncertainty has been developed. In the methodological context, the proposed approach is based on an array of isovalues, each of which corresponds to its own level of optimism in forecasting the cash flow for the project. With the increase in the efficiency of the project due to engineering, the entire array of iso-value lines’ changes its geometrical position, moving further from the origin (in the four-dimensional space "time-benefit-cost-risk"). The proposed model includes three stages. At the first stage, input information is collected and the corresponding analysis is initiated. The result of the second stage is a multivariate cash flow forecast and calculation of the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and its changes for each scenario. The third stage provides the calculation of the expected BCR and its change, an assessment of the risk of making an erroneous decision and changing this risk as a result of the engineering session. The model makes it possible to calculate the achieved proportion of the static and dynamic vectors of change in the value of the project, which is one of the key manifestations of the scientific novelty of the work. In the example considered, the share of the dynamic vector of growth in the value of the project was found to be 35.47 %. The model has an environmental property - the assessment of the success of value engineering under conditions of uncertainty is carried out on the basis of the annual total benefits and the annual total costs throughout the project cycle. Thus, the analysis takes into account the impact of the project on the environment, which is reflected in the risk assessment. The given case testifies to the feasibility of applying the model in the practice of engineering the value of construction projects.

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