THE ASSESSMENT OF BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES FROM THE SECTOR OF DRYING AND STORAGE OF CROPS AND PLANTS

Contemporary market conditions make all business entities confront various risks – credit risk, liquidity risk, cash flow risk and market risk. Companies should predict these particular business risks and manage them adequately in order to minimize their influence. The assessment of creditworthiness and bankruptcy risk has a major role in the process of prediction and management of company risks. The creditworthiness of companies presents their ability to meet financial obligations to their creditors contemporary business conditions recognize several methods for assessment of credit ability of entities. One of the most commonly used models for credit ability valuation, as well as prediction of bankruptcy likelihood in a company is the Altman's Z-score model. The main scope of this article is the assessment of bankruptcy risk by using Altman's Z-score model for the group of companies from the agricultural branch of drying and storage of fruit.

Construction Cash Flow Risk Index

As investment increases in capital projects, financial risks increase, and cash flow prediction and control become more paramount. Higher risks could hinder project performance and increase the chances of failure in multiple aspects of a project. While there are models that aim to assess and forecast risks in the construction industry, none present a technique to include the impact of risks on a project’s cash flow. Therefore, cash flow forecasts tend to exceed the actual cash flow of a project due to inaccurate risk assessment. Thus, this paper presents the Cash Flow Risk Index (CFRI) development process quantifying the impact of risks on a project’s cash flow from an owner’s perspective. To that end, the study explored the literature to identify the risk factors that might impact a construction projects’ cash flow and uncovered 44 factors. The study also validated and consolidated these factors to build a CFRI via a Delphi exercise, which reduced the factors from 44 to 36. In further iterations, the 36 factors were also shared with 32 construction industry professionals to rate their relative importance on a five-point Likert scale, from which relative importance index and weights were obtained. As a result, the CFRI was developed to measure the impact of different risk factors on a typical construction project’s cash flow.

Vanishing Contagion Spreads

We study default in a multifirm equilibrium setting with incomplete information. Defaults are consistent with the firm’s balance sheet and aggregation. We show that the endogenous volatility and jump size of debt and equity generated by other firms’ shocks vanish as the number of firms in the economy increases. As a result, credit spreads depend asymptotically only on the firms’ own cash flow risk. Our vanishing contagion spread result calls into question recent findings based on production economies, in which quantities of risk (volatilities and jump sizes of securities) are specified exogenously, that attribute credit spreads mostly to contagion. This paper was accepted by Kay Giesecke, finance.

Analysis on financing structure and default probability of listed companies

This paper studies the relationship between the financing structure and the probability of default of A-share listed companies from 2001 to 2020. The purpose is to prevent the occurrence of default and ensure the healthy development of various industries. It is found that the higher the proportion of external financing is, the higher the probability of default is. The impact of debt financing on default risk is higher than equity financing. In addition, this paper tests the mediating effect of cash flow risk, and the effect of financing structure on debt default probability is heterogeneous among regions and enterprises. These findings show that enterprises must control their financing structure, optimize the allocation of resources, prevent cash flow risk, reduce the probability of debt default, so as to make various industries flourish and optimize the industrial structure.

Internal Control, External Audit and Corporate Cash Flow Risk

Based on the sample of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2014 to 2019, this paper empirically tests the impact of internal control and external audit on corporate cash flow risk and the interaction between the two in affecting cash flow risk. The results show that high-quality internal control and external auditing can independently reduce corporate cash flow risks, and the two play a substitute effect in this process. The research conclusions expand the impact of the company’s internal and external governance mechanisms on cash flow risks, and are of great significance for companies to effectively use internal and external resources to prevent and manage cash flow risks.