A Brief Overview: The Persistence and Pandemic of Virulent Newcastle Disease in Birds as Well as Role in Pakistan

The poultry industry is affected by many epidemics and Newcastle Disease (ND) is a constant threat, known as a devastating disease for poultry farmers around the world. According to the average death time of chicken embryos, virus strains can be classified as lentogenic, mesogenic, or velogenic. The current research will clarify the vulnerable host range as well as the epidemiology and geographic distribution of ND in Pakistan. The introduction of the virus into poultry can have serious economic consequences, including the loss of production of sick and dying poultry, the cost of control measures (such as population reduction and disinfection measures), and possible trade restrictions in the event of an outbreak. The virus is transmitted by direct contact with sick poultry or carriers. Infected birds can also spread the virus in their feces. It can also be spread through respiratory secretions, contaminated feed, equipment, water, or feces. We will also discuss vaccines that which vaccines are available for NDV in Pakistan and vaccines can fight against this disease or not? In this study, a qualitative risk analysis was carried out to assess Pakistan's vulnerability to the introduction of virulent NDV strains

Delays in the Road Construction Projects from Risk Management Perspective

Delays in the execution stage of road construction projects are one of the significant challenges. The incapability of finishing projects according to schedule has attracted many researchers’ attention to this issue. This study has been formed to investigate delays in road construction projects from a risk management perspective. In this study, risks have been identified by structured interviews with experts. Qualitative risk analysis by a survey of experts and quantitative risk analysis by analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique have been performed. Research results show that financial and credit problems, lands’ funding, management problems, technical problems, and natural disasters have the highest risk among the main criteria. Among the subcriteria of the risk, incomplete funding with a weight of 0.188, gardens and land price with 0.114 are the most critical risk, and ground operations with 0.017, asphalt problems with 0.009, and accident insurance with a weight of 0.006 are the least essential risk. In the following, critical criteria analysis has been performed, and solutions to reduce or eliminate these delays in road construction projects are presented.

Development of Business Process Based on Risk in Procurement Process of High-Rise Vertical Housing to Improve Performance Time in The Ministry of Public Works and Housing

The implementation of the construction of vertical housing has a record that there are still many experience delays in completing work. One of the contributing factors is the imperfect procurement process. Therefore, it is necessary to develop business processes in the procurement process. This study aims to develop a business process base on risk in the process of procuring high-rise vertical housing to improve performance time. Qualitative risk analysis is carried out to determine the highest risk and use the risk response to analyze its business process development actions. The results obtained are in the form of the highest risk in the procurement process and the development of the procurement business process.

ASESMEN KOROSI & ANALISIS RISIKO KUALITATIF PADA VERTIKAL BEJANA TEKAN

Keselamatan dan keamanan dalam penggunaan bejana tekan sangat penting dan hal utama dalam penggunaan bejana tekan, terlebih lagi jika bejana tekan tersebut sudah melewati umur desain nya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menilai kelayakan kondisi terkini dari suatu bejana tekan vertikal (vertical pressure vessel) yang telah beroperasi sejak tahun 1970 tetapi berhenti beroperasi pada tahun 2011. Pendekatan penilaian pada bejana tekan vertikal ini berbasis pada metode penilaian korosi dan risiko secara kualitatif. Selain itu juga dipergunakan metode-metode lain dalam aspek penilaian nya seperti visual inspeksi, laju korosi (corrosion rate), Non-Destructive Examination (NDE), software calculation dan analisa risiko kualitatif (qualitative risk analysis). Dari hasil observasi dan inspeksi di dapat tekanan desain (design pressure) adalah 7 kg/cm2, Temperatur desain (design temperature) adalah 61°C dengan material konstruksi adalah SA-283 Gr. C dan standard & code yang dipergunakan adalah ASME Sect. VIII Div. 1 dan API 510 serta beberapa standard & code lainnya. Dari hasil kajian dan kalkulasi di lapangan, maka didapat faktor penyebab kerusakan yang kemungkinan terjadi adalah atmospheric corrosion & uniform corrosion dengan nilai laju korosi adalah sebesar 0,127mm/yr dan tingkat risiko dari bejana tekan vertikal ini masuk dalam kategori 2D yang artinya adalah medium-high dengan maksimal umur pakai sampai usia 27 tahun untuk top head dan 24 tahun dan bottom head serta 23 tahun untuk shell. Sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa bejana tekan ini masih aman dan layak dipergunakan dengan batasan-batasan di atas.

Qualitative Risk Analysis for Contents of Dry Toilets Used to Produce Novel Recycling Fertilizers

Human excreta are a sustainable, economical source of nutrients, and can be used to produce recycling fertilizer for horticulture by collecting and processing the contents of dry toilets. Herein, we discuss the key categories of risk associated with the main groups of materials commonly found in dry toilets. The study was part of the development of a German product standard for marketable and quality-assured recycling fertilizers from human excreta for use in horticulture. Particular attention is paid to ensuring that the fertilizer is epidemiologically and environmentally harmless and that the quality of the recycling fertilizer is adequate in terms of low pollution and nutrient availability. In sum, the risk of transmissible human pathogens lies within the human excreta, particularly feces; plant materials added during composting are of particular phytosanitary relevance; pharmaceutical residues in excrements and chemical additives are potential sources of pollutants; non-biodegradable contaminants can cause pollution and injury; and the horticultural risks involve mainly the ammonia emission potential and in some cases the salinity effects of urine. These risks can be reduced significantly (i) with education of users around proper operation of dry toilets and the consequences of adding inappropriate waste, (ii) with facilitation of proper use with general waste bins and clear instructions, and importantly (iii) by using modern sanitization and cleaning processes and testing for harmful substances under the guidance of local laws and regulations, ensuring safe and high-quality fertilizers. In conclusion, the benefits of using dry toilet contents to produce fertilizers for use in horticulture are unquestionable. Our analysis highlights the need to support recycling optimization and awareness for the purpose of a sustainable circular economy and to minimize the risk of harm to humans and the environment overall.

Oil Spill Response Planning For Amazon Region–A Crude Carrier Study Case

It is well-known that an adequate planning process is paramount for a response success in oil spill events. This is especially true for tankers leakages due to its dynamic nature and potential to cause severe environmental harms. Moreover, one of the most challenging planning dimensions for an adequate response is, certainly, the human and material mobilization logistics, which can be strongly limited in remote regions. In South America, one of the most worldwide preserved rainforest areas, the Amazon, which consists of more than 5 million square kilometers and contains a thousand rivers, is also one of the most remote area, with important logistics challenges for almost any human activity. Despite all these difficulties, however, since 1986 Brazil has been producing an average of 35.000 bpd of oil at Urucu Field, located close to the city of Coari, around 400 miles from the province capital, Manaus. Once produced, this oil is pumped through a pipeline until a terminal at Solimões river, where is loaded in tankers destined to Manaus. Although contingency facilities exist in these two cities, there is no support installation in any point over the 342 nautical miles of the journey. Therefore, this study aimed at identifying the major operational risks of this naval transport and at analyzing some specific contingency planning aspects. Initially, a total of 12 safety critical areas were identified during a field inspection trip along Solimões and Amazon rivers. For each point, a qualitative risk analysis was developed, using tropical environmental sensitivities indexes and an empirical oil slick forecast modelling, as well as an oil weathering modelling using the ADIOS2 computational package. Finally, a verification checklist with a scorecard system was developed and applied, in order to assess the oil spill response feasibility and rank the critical spots over the rivers courses. For all the points evaluated, around 30% of all accidental hypothesis were associated with a catastrophic risk, with most being identified as potentially causing a severe environmental impact. Besides, all the estimated response times calculated were insufficient to avoid oiling of the riverbanks. Finally, due also to strong currents and other limiting environmental conditions, all critical point displayed low scores for the response feasibility evaluation, with poor logistics being a key parameter. From these results, navigational safety recommendations and oil spill response planning guidelines were developed in order to minimize an accident occurrence probability and, hence, the risk associated with it.

Choosing Method for Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis for Energy Enterprises

The reform of the energy sector in the Republic of Belarus, which in the last few years has moved to the stage of active implementation, will bring significant changes in the management of energy enterprises. The introduction of risk management for energy enterprises will become a necessary stage, which is justified by the transition of the energy sector to market relations. In this regard, it is necessary to consider the main issues of risk assessment for energy enterprises. The paper proposes a method for qualitative and quantitative analysis of all the risks that an energy enterprise may face in the process of energy generation. The approaches of various authors to the algorithm of qualitative risk analysis have been considered in the paper. This has made it possible to clarify the main tasks that need to be solved when conducting a qualitative risk analysis. The paper also presents an analysis of methods for quantitative risk analysis. The most commonly used methods include scenario analysis and mathematical statistics, analogy and analytical methods, methods for assessing losses, expert assessments and the theory of statistical games. Each of these methods has its own advantages and disadvantages. The performed analysis of quantitative risks has permitted to substantiate the choice of methods applicable to the energy sector, taking into account the specificity of activity type. The paper has studied various scales for estimating the probability and possible losses from risks. A comparative analysis of these scales is presented and the choice of a scale for energy enterprises is justified in the paper. Attention has been paid to the problem of probability classification pertaining to occurrence of risk events. The methodology for determining the value of possible losses when performing a risk event has been considered in detail. Potential losses are classified into the following groups: interruptions in the technological process, consequences for people, environmental consequences. Possible financial losses, as well as losses from the position of the law and reputation, have been considered separately. A critical review of risk management methods has been performed in the paper. The paper has identified the most promising methods of risk management for energy enterprises

Adaptation of the Risk Management System in an Industrial-Type Enterprise

Today, little attention is paid to risks, with management focusing more on performance indicators and business results than on analyzing dangerous situations and finding new opportunities. The risk management system proposed in this paper will help to take risks under control and systematize the risk management process. Ideally, it should be integrated into the quality management system. The paper also provides a study on the development of methods for identifying, analyzing and assessing strategic risks. The risk management process is described in accordance with GOST R ISO 31000-2019; methods of risk management are considered. The risk management system included a register, a questionnaire, criteria for the severity of risk and the likelihood of occurrence, as well as a matrix of risks with a description of its zones and levels of risk. The paper provides a procedure for risk management, which describes the stages of the risk management process and their relationship with the approach proposed in GOST R ISO 31000. The standard questions of the questionnaire are formulated that will help simplify the process of identifying risks in the enterprise if the manager does not have a certain plan. A form of a risk register is proposed, which consists of successively filled columns: strategic goal, risk, qualitative risk analysis, quantitative risk assessment, risk reduction. It also describes how to fill it out and its main functions. Thus, the entire risk management system is described through its separate, but interconnected parts. With a competent approach and the integration of RMS into the QMS, risk management will give a tangible effect.