scholarly journals PIN7 Estimate of Infectious Disease Burden Attributable to Climate Change

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. A666-A667
Author(s):  
P. Pathak ◽  
C. Rana
Author(s):  
Devin C. Bowles

One of the least appreciated mechanisms by which climate change will affect infectious diseases is via increased violent conflict. Climate change will diminish agricultural and pastoral resources and increase food scarcity in many areas, including already impoverished equatorial regions. Many in the defence and public health fields anticipate that climate change will increase conflict by fuelling competition over scarce resources. Already, some commentators argue that the conflicts in Darfur and Syria were partially caused or exacerbated by climate change. Conflict facilitates a range of conditions conducive to the spread of many infectious diseases, including malnutrition, forced migration, unhygienic living conditions and widespread sexual assault. Flight or killing of health personnel inhibits vaccination, vector control and disease surveillance programs. Emergence of new diseases may go undetected and discovery of outbreaks could be suppressed for strategic reasons. These conditions combine to increase the risk of pandemics.


Virulence ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 548-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celia McMichael

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 22838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veena Iyer ◽  
Gulrez Shah Azhar ◽  
Nandini Choudhury ◽  
Vidwan Singh Dhruwey ◽  
Russell Dacombe ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 86 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Diemert ◽  
Tao Yan

ABSTRACT Clinical surveillance of enteric pathogens like Salmonella is integral to track outbreaks and endemic disease trends. However, clinic-centered disease monitoring biases toward detection of severe cases and underestimates the incidence of self-limiting gastroenteritis and asymptomatic strains. Monitoring pathogen loads and diversity in municipal wastewater (MW) can provide insight into asymptomatic or subclinical infections which are not reflected in clinical cases. Subclinical infection patterns may explain the unusual observation from a year-long sampling campaign in Hawaii: Salmonella enterica serovar Derby was the most abundant pulsotype in MW but was detected infrequently in clinics over the sampling period. Using whole-genome sequencing data of Salmonella isolates from MW and public databases, we demonstrate that the Derby serovar has lower virulence potential than other clinical serovars, particularly based on its reduced profile of genes linked with immune evasion and symptom production, suggesting its potential as a subclinical salmonellosis agent. Furthermore, MW had high abundance of a rare Derby sequence type (ST), ST-72 (rather than the more common ST-40). ST-72 isolates had higher frequencies of fimbrial adherence genes than ST-40 isolates; these are key virulence factors involved in colonization and persistence of infections. However, ST-72 isolates lack the Derby-specific Salmonella pathogenicity island 23 (SPI-23), which invokes host immune responses. In combination, ST-72’s genetic features may lead to appreciable infection rates without obvious symptom production, allowing for subclinical persistence in the community. This study demonstrated wastewater’s capability to provide community infectious disease information—such as background infection rates of subclinical enteric illness—which is otherwise inaccessible through clinical approaches. IMPORTANCE Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been conventionally used to analyze community health via the detection of chemicals, such as legal and illicit drugs; however, municipal wastewater contains microbiological determinants of health and disease as well, including enteric pathogens. Here, we demonstrate that WBE can be used to examine subclinical community salmonellosis patterns. Derby was the most abundant Salmonella serovar detected in Hawaii wastewater over a year-long sampling study, with few corresponding clinical cases. Comparative genomics analyses indicate that the normally rare strain of S. Derby found in wastewater has a unique combination of genes which allow it to persist as a subclinical infection without producing symptoms of severe gastroenteritis. This study shows that WBE can be used to explore trends in community infectious disease patterns which may not be reflected in clinical monitoring, shedding light on overall enteric disease burden and rates of asymptomatic cases.


Science ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 336 (6080) ◽  
pp. 418-419 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Lindgren ◽  
Y. Andersson ◽  
J. E. Suk ◽  
B. Sudre ◽  
J. C. Semenza

2009 ◽  
Vol 138 (6) ◽  
pp. 802-812 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. HENS ◽  
M. AERTS ◽  
C. FAES ◽  
Z. SHKEDY ◽  
O. LEJEUNE ◽  
...  

SUMMARYThe force of infection, describing the rate at which a susceptible person acquires an infection, is a key parameter in models estimating the infectious disease burden, and the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of infectious disease prevention. Since Muench formulated the first catalytic model to estimate the force of infection from current status data in 1934, exactly 75 years ago, several authors addressed the estimation of this parameter by more advanced statistical methods, while applying these to seroprevalence and reported incidence/case notification data. In this paper we present an historical overview, discussing the relevance of Muench's work, and we explain the wide array of newer methods with illustrations on pre-vaccination serological survey data of two airborne infections: rubella and parvovirus B19. We also provide guidance on deciding which method(s) to apply to estimate the force of infection, given a particular set of data.


2015 ◽  
Vol 370 (1665) ◽  
pp. 20130551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul E. Parham ◽  
Joanna Waldock ◽  
George K. Christophides ◽  
Deborah Hemming ◽  
Folashade Agusto ◽  
...  

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems.


Epidemiology ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. S175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hosung Shin ◽  
Dongjin Kim

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