The objective of this study was to define combinations of pH, salt, and moisture that produce growth, stasis, or inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes in Mexican-style cheese. A soft, directly acidified, rennet-coagulated, fresh cheese similar to Mexican-style cheese was produced. The cheese was subsequently altered in composition as required by the experimental protocol. A factorial design with four moisture contents (42, 50, 55, and 60%), four salt concentrations (2.0, 4.0, 6.0, and 8.0% wt/wt), six pH levels (5.0, 5.25, 5.50, 5.75, 6.0, and 6.5), and three replications was used. Observations of growth, stasis, or death were obtained for each combination after 21 and 42 days of incubation at 10°C. Binary logistic regression was used to develop an equation to determine the probability of growth or no growth for any combination within the range of the data set. In addition, ordinal logistic regression was used to calculate proportional odds ratios for growth, stasis, and death for each treatment combination. Ordinal logistic regression was also used to develop equations to determine the probability of growth, stasis, and death for formulations within the range of the data set. Models were validated with independently produced data. Of 60 samples formulated to have a 5% probability of Listeria growth (pH, 5.0 to 6.0; brine concentration, 8.17 to 16.00%), none supported growth. Of 30 samples formulated to have 50% probability of growth using the binary model (pH, 5.50 to 6.50; brine concentration, 3.23 to 12.50%), 20 supported growth. Of 30 samples formulated to have a 50% probability of growth according to the ordinal model (pH, 5.50 to 6.50; brine concentration, 3.37 to 10.90%), 16 supported growth. These data indicate that the logistic regression models presented accurately predict the behavior of L. monocytogenes in Mexican-style cheese.
A comparison of dynamic tertiary and competition models for describing the fate of Listeria monocytogenes in Minas fresh cheese during refrigerated storage
