scholarly journals Accounting for Safety Barriers Degradation in the Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Systems by Multistate Bayesian Networks

Author(s):  
F. DIMAIO ◽  
O. SCAPINELLO ◽  
E. ZIO ◽  
C. CIARAPICA ◽  
S. CINCOTTA ◽  
...  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Decarli ◽  
Anna Crivellari ◽  
Laura La Rosa ◽  
Enrico Zio ◽  
Francesco Di Maio ◽  
...  

Abstract For the design and operation of Oil and Gas (O&G) facilities, a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) should be performed to quantify the risk of major accidents due to multiple hazards and sources at the plant level, thus allowing the effective identification and allocation of safety barriers. In this work, a novel approach for the multi-hazard and multi-source aggregation of risks is proposed, accounting for the uncertainties typically unexpressed in a conventional QRA (both on the frequency and severity of the accidental scenarios). The multi-hazard risk assessment framework proposed is applied to assess the Location-Specific Individual Risk (LSIR) for a representative Upstream O&G plant (case study), using a model based on multistate Bayesian Networks (BNs) for different functional units, each one undergoing an initiating event of Loss Of Primary Containment (LOPC). Estimates of frequency and severity for each possible accident scenario are aggregated to eventually calculate the overall LSIR. Moreover, LSIR's confidence intervals are provided to describe the uncertainty associated to the estimates, and the frequency and severity contributions to risk are derived for targeted prioritization of the safety barriers in view of the risk reduction.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 722
Author(s):  
Behnaz Hosseinnia Davatgar ◽  
Nicola Paltrinieri ◽  
Roberto Bubbico

In the Oil and Gas sector, risk assessment and management have always been critical due to the possibility of significant accidents associated with the presence of large amounts of flammable hydrocarbons. Methods to provide accurate and reliable risk analysis for an oil platform usually focus on critical equipment and identify causes and consequences of loss of containment. Safety barriers are important elements of such accident scenarios, aiming to reduce the frequency of unwanted events. Estimating the performance of safety barriers is essential for the prevention of major accidents. This work first focuses on the application of risk-based analysis on the process area equipment of the floating platform Goliat. Such an approach is secondly extended to the most relevant safety systems to prevent fires and explosions and consequent catastrophic domino effects. An additional challenge resides in the fact that safety barriers cannot always be classified as equipment, as they are often composed of operational and organizational elements. Through the application of the ARAMIS Project (Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries in the Context of the Seveso II Directive) results, the frequency modification methodology based on TEC2O (TEChnical Operational and Organizational factors) and the REWI (Resilience-based Early Warning Indicators) method, it is possible to quantify the safety barrier performance, to reduce the frequency of unwanted events. While conducting this study, the importance of the management factor in combination with technical and technological aspects of safety barrier performance was analyzed. Starting from the initial project conditions, applying worsening technical factors, and simulating n organizational management for the safety systems, it is possible to quantify the performance of the safety barriers, highlighting the importance of management factors in terms of prevention of major accidents, and to assess the dynamic risk for the overall plant.


IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Amir Farmahini Farahani ◽  
Kaveh Khalili-Damghani ◽  
Hosein Didehkhani ◽  
Amir Homayoun Sarfaraz ◽  
Mehdi Hajirezaie

Author(s):  
Wenxing Feng ◽  
Xiaoqiang Xiang ◽  
Guangming Jia ◽  
Lianshuang Dai ◽  
Yulei Gu ◽  
...  

The oil and gas pipeline companies in China are facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges because of China’s increasing demand for oil and gas energy that is attributed to rapid economic and social development. Limitation of land resource and the fast urbanization lead to a determinate result that many pipelines have to go through or be adjacent to highly populated areas such as cities or towns. The increasing Chinese government regulation, and public concerns about industrial safety and environmental protection push the pipeline companies to enhance the safety, health and environmental protection management. In recent years, PetroChina Pipeline Company (PPC) pays a lot of attention and effort to improve employees and public safety around the pipeline facilities. A comprehensive, integrated HSE management system is continuously improved and effectively implemented in PPC. PPC conducts hazard identification, risk assessment, risk control and mitigation, risk monitoring. For the oil and gas stations in highly populated area or with numerous employees, PPC carries out quantitative risk assessment (QRA) to evaluate and manage the population risk. To make the assessment, “Guidelines for quantitative risk assessments” (purple book) published by Committee for the Prevention of Disasters of Netherlands is used along with a software package. The basic principles, process, and methods of QRA technology are introduced in this article. The process is to identify the station hazards, determinate the failure scenarios of the facilities, estimate the possibilities of leakage failures, calculate the consequences of failures and damages to population, demonstrate the individual risk and social risk, and evaluate whether the risk is acceptable. The process may involve the mathematical modeling of fluid and gas spill, dispersion, fire and explosion. One QRA case in an oil pipeline station is described in this article to illustrate the application process and discuss several key issues in the assessment. Using QRA technique, about 20 stations have been evaluated in PPC. On the basis of the results, managers have taken prevention and mitigation plans to control the risk. QRAs in the pipeline station can provide a quantitative basis and valuable reference for the company’s decision-making and land use planning. Also, QRA can play a role to make a better relationship between the pipeline companies and the local regulator and public. Finally, this article delivers limitations of QRA in Chinese pipeline stations and discusses issues of the solutions.


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