An evaluation of seismic hazard and potential damage in Gaziantep, Turkey using site specific models for sources, velocity structure and building stock

2022 ◽  
Vol 154 ◽  
pp. 107129
Author(s):  
Arzu Arslan Kelam ◽  
Shaghayegh Karimzadeh ◽  
Karim Yousefibavil ◽  
Haluk Akgün ◽  
Aysegul Askan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Velocity Structure ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Potential Damage

Uniform risk in site-specific seismic hazard analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 317-324
Author(s):  
Atilla M. Ansal ◽  
İyisan Recep
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Site Specific

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for California do not perform better relative to historical shaking data when site-specific VS30 is considered

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly Gallahue ◽  
Leah Salditch ◽  
Madeleine Lucas ◽  
James Neely ◽  
Susan Hough ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Tall Buildings ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Intensity Mapping ◽  
Aleatory Variability

<div> <p>Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments forecast levels of earthquake shaking that should be exceeded with only a certain probability over a given period of time are important for earthquake hazard mitigation. These rely on assumptions about when and where earthquakes will occur, their size, and the resulting shaking as a function of distance as described by ground-motion models (GMMs) that cover broad geologic regions. Seismic hazard maps are used to develop building codes.</p> </div><div> <p>To explore the robustness of maps’ shaking forecasts, we consider how maps hindcast past shaking. We have compiled the California Historical Intensity Mapping Project (CHIMP) dataset of the maximum observed seismic intensity of shaking from the largest Californian earthquakes over the past 162 years. Previous comparisons between the maps for a constant V<sub>S30</sub> (shear-wave velcoity in the top 30 m of soil) of 760 m/s and CHIMP based on several metrics suggested that current maps overpredict shaking.</p> <p>The differences between the V<sub>S30</sub> at the CHIMP sites and the reference value of 760 m/s could amplify or deamplify the ground motions relative to the mapped values. We evaluate whether the V<sub>S30 </sub>at the CHIMP sites could cause a possible bias in the models. By comparison with the intensity data in CHIMP, we find that using site-specific V<sub>S30</sub> does not improve map performance, because the site corrections cause only minor differences from the original 2018 USGS hazard maps at the short periods (high frequencies) relevant to peak ground acceleration and hence MMI. The minimal differences reflect the fact that the nonlinear deamplification due to increased soil damping largely offsets the linear amplification due to low V<sub>S30</sub>. The net effects will be larger for longer periods relevant to tall buildings, where net amplification occurs. </p> <div> <p>Possible reasons for this discrepancy include limitations of the dataset, a bias in the hazard models, an over-estimation of the aleatory variability of the ground motion or that seismicity throughout the historical period has been lower than the long-term average, perhaps by chance due to the variability of earthquake recurrence. Resolving this discrepancy, which is also observed in Italy and Japan, could improve the performance of seismic hazard maps and thus earthquake safety for California and, by extension, worldwide. We also explore whether new nonergodic GMMs, with reduced aleatory variability, perform better than presently used ergodic GMMs compared to historical data.</p> </div> </div>

Site-Specific Ground Motion Studies for a Deep Soil Site Near Ahmedabad, Gujarat

2018 ◽  
pp. 31-65
Author(s):  
A. Boominathan ◽  
Krishna Kumar ◽  
R. Vijaya
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Ground Response ◽  
Ground Response Analysis ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Linear Approach ◽  
Specific Analysis ◽  
Soil Site ◽  
A Site

Design ground motions are usually developed by one of two approaches: by performing site-specific analyses or from provisions of building codes. Although contemporary codes consider the site effects to an extent, they provide more conservative estimates. Hence, site-specific analysis, which involves both the seismic hazard analysis and ground response analysis, is a preferred approach to obtain design ground motions. This chapter presents a site-specific analysis for a site near Ahmedabad, Gujarat. The seismic hazard analysis was carried out by DSHA approach. The site is predominantly characterized by deep stiff sandy clay deposits. Extensive shear wave velocity measurement is used for site classification and ground response analysis. The ground response analysis was carried out by using two approaches: the equivalent linear approach using SHAKE2000 and the non-linear approach using FLAC2D. The deep-stiff-soil site is found to amplify the ground motion. The response from nonlinear analysis is found to be considerably higher than those obtained from the equivalent linear approach.

Site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard of Prague (Czech Republic)

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1223-1232
Author(s):  
Jiří Málek ◽  
Jiří Vackář
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Site Specific

scholarly journals Integration of Site Effects into Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA): A Comparison between Two Fully Probabilistic Methods on the Euroseistest Site

Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Aristizábal ◽  
Pierre-Yves Bard ◽  
Céline Beauval ◽  
Juan Gómez
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Site Effects ◽  
Site Response ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Hazard Curve ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Time Histories ◽  
Stochastic Time

The integration of site effects into Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is still an open issue within the seismic hazard community. Several approaches have been proposed varying from deterministic to fully probabilistic, through hybrid (probabilistic-deterministic) approaches. The present study compares the hazard curves that have been obtained for a thick, soft non-linear site with two different fully probabilistic, site-specific seismic hazard methods: (1) The analytical approximation of the full convolution method (AM) proposed by Bazzurro and Cornell 2004a,b and (2) what we call the Full Probabilistic Stochastic Method (SM). The AM computes the site-specific hazard curve on soil, HC(Sas(f)), by convolving for each oscillator frequency the bedrock hazard curve, HC(Sar(f)), with a simplified representation of the probability distribution of the amplification function, AF(f), at the considered site The SM hazard curve is built from stochastic time histories on soil or rock corresponding to a representative, long enough synthetic catalog of seismic events. This comparison is performed for the example case of the Euroseistest site near Thessaloniki (Greece). For this purpose, we generate a long synthetic earthquake catalog, we calculate synthetic time histories on rock with the stochastic point source approach, and then scale them using an adhoc frequency-dependent correction factor to fit the specific rock target hazard. We then propagate the rock stochastic time histories, from depth to surface using two different one-dimensional (1D) numerical site response analyses, while using an equivalent-linear (EL) and a non-linear (NL) code to account for code-to-code variability. Lastly, we compute the probability distribution of the non-linear site amplification function, AF(f), for both site response analyses, and derive the site-specific hazard curve with both AM and SM methods, to account for method-to-method variability. The code-to-code variability (EL and NL) is found to be significant, providing a much larger contribution to the uncertainty in hazard estimates, than the method-to-method variability: AM and SM results are found comparable whenever simultaneously applicable. However, the AM method is also shown to exhibit severe limitations in the case of strong non-linearity, leading to ground motion “saturation”, so that finally the SM method is to be preferred, despite its much higher computational price. Finally, we encourage the use of ground-motion simulations to integrate site effects into PSHA, since models with different levels of complexity can be included (e.g., point source, extended source, 1D, two-dimensional (2D), and three-dimensional (3D) site response analysis, kappa effect, hard rock …), and the corresponding variability of the site response can be quantified.

scholarly journals Determination of Local Site-Specific Spectra Using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Bitlis Province, Turkey

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ercan Işık ◽  
Mustafa Kutanis
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Response Spectra ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Source Characterization ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Attenuation Relationships

<p>In this study, site-specific earthquake spectra for Bitlis province in Lake Van Basin has been obtained. It is noteworthy that, in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, as a first stage data from geological studies and records from the instrumental period were compiled to make a seismic source characterization for the study region.The probabilistic seismic hazard curves for Bitlis were developed based on selected appropriate attenuation relationships, at rock sites, with a probability of exceedance 2%, 10% and 50% in 50 year periods. The obtained results were compared with the spectral responses proposed for seismic evaluation and retrofit of the building structure in Turkish Earthquake Code, Section 2. At the end of this study, it is apprehended that the Code proposed earthquake response spectra are not sufficient for the performance evaluation of the existing structures and the current estimations show that the potential seismic hazard research of the Turkey is underestimated in the code.Therefore, site- specific design spectra for the region should be developed, which reflect the characteristics of local sites.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Determinación de espectros de sitio específico locales a través del análisis probabilístico de amenazas sísmicaspara la provincia de Bitlis, Turquía</strong></p><p> </p><p><strong>Resumen</strong></p>En este estudio se obtuvieron espectros de terremoto de sitio específico para la cuenca del Lago de Van, en la provincia de Bitlis, al este de Turquía. La primera fase del trabajo consistió en una evaluación probabilística de riesgo sísmico donde se compilaron los estudios geológicos y registros del período instrumental para hacer una caracterización de fuente sísmica en la región de estudio. Las curvas de amenaza sísmica para la provincia de Bitlis se desarrollaron con base en las relaciones de atenuación apropiada seleccionadas en los sitios rocosos, con una probabilidad de exceso de 2 %, 10 % y 50 % durante 50 años. Los resultados obtenidos se compararon con las respuestas de espectro propuestas para la evaluación sísmica y modernización de estructuras contempladas en el Código de Terremoto de Turquía, en la sección 2. En la parte final de este trabajo se comprende que las respuestas de espectros de terremoto propuestos en el código no son suficientes para la evaluación de desempeño de las estructuras existentes y que las estimaciones actuales muestran que la investigación de amenazas potenciales sísmicas en Turquía está subestimada en el código. Por lo tanto, el diseño de espectros de sitio específico para la región se debe desarrollar, ya que permitiría conocer las singularidades locales.</p>

The 1922 Peninsula Malaysia Earthquakes: Rare Intraplate Seismicity within the Sundaland Block in Southeast Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 2531-2545 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stacey Servito Martin ◽  
Yu Wang ◽  
Muzli Muzli ◽  
Shengji Wei
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Malay Peninsula ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
Need To Evaluate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Seismic hazard in the southern Malay Peninsula located within the Sundaland block in Southeast Asia is poorly understood. The paucity of historical earthquakes and low-magnitude instrumented seismicity has led to the assumption that this region is largely aseismic. We question this point of view by reassessing historical seismicity in this region and, in particular, a pair of moderate earthquakes in the 1920s. The first of these struck on 31 January 1922 at ≈9:10  a.m. local time (LT) for which we estimate an intensity magnitude (MI) ≈5.4, and for the second earthquake on 7 February 1922 at ≈12:15  p.m. LT, we estimate MI≈5.0. We also identify at least 34 felt earthquakes between 1803 and 1950 that were potentially local within the Sundaland block. These include a very widely felt shock (or set of shocks) on 26 June 1874 that was felt in parts of Borneo, Java, and Sumatra. The discovery of these earthquakes challenges the tectonic stability of the Malay Peninsula and the stable interior of the Sundaland block. The record of historical seismicity in this region relies heavily on European sources, and we recommend locating and consulting indigenous sources to improve the current understanding of regional seismic hazard. We also underscore the need to evaluate the impact of ground motions from rare local earthquakes on the extant building stock and on transportation infrastructure that are otherwise relatively immune to the long-period effects of distant earthquakes commonly felt in the Malay Peninsula.

UCERF3 Implementation for Site-Specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Altekruse ◽  
Alfredo Fernandez ◽  
Roland LaForge ◽  
Dean Ostenaa ◽  
Osman El Menchawi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Site Specific
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