Earthquake effects on tourism in central Italy

Abstract. The geographic distribution of earthquake effects quantified in terms of macroseismic intensities, the so-called macroseismic field, provides basic information for several applications including source characterization of pre-instrumental earthquakes and risk analysis. Macroseismic fields of past earthquakes as inferred from historical documentation may present spatial gaps, due to the incompleteness of the available information. We present a probabilistic approach aimed at integrating incomplete intensity distributions by considering the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties and the discrete and ordinal nature of intensity values. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories and for two well-known strong earthquakes (i.e., 1980 southern Italy and 2009 central Italy events). A possible application of the approach is also illustrated relative to a 16th-century earthquake in the northern Apennines.

Download Full-text

Earthquake effects and insights on fault activity at the Beatrice Cenci cave (Abruzzo, Central Apennines)

Annals of Geophysics ◽

10.4401/ag-8571 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 64 (4) ◽

pp. SE435

Author(s):

Laura Leonilde Alfonsi ◽

Francesca Romana Cinti

Keyword(s):

Central Italy ◽

Normal Fault ◽

Fault Activity ◽

Central Apennines ◽

Regional Tectonic ◽

Cave Environment ◽

History Of ◽

Tectonic Lineament ◽

Earthquake Effects ◽

Past Activity

he focus of this study is the analysis of a cave in Central Italy, the Beatrice Cenci cave, in order to point out and constrain evidence of possible past earthquakes and of fault activity in the area. We performed a survey of seismic related damages within the cave. This included the analysis of broken/collapsed speleothems, the recognition of structural collapse, of tilting/growth alteration in the speleothems, and the mapping of fractures, joints and/or faults. To timely set the occurrence of the recognized damage, organic sediments were dated with 14C radiocarbon method. The results merged toward the recognition of two distinct seismic shaking events affecting the cave environment, one older than 30 kyr and another around 7 kyr. The deformation observed within the cave led us to the hypothesis that the events of damage were possibly linked to the activity of the regional tectonic lineament that crosses the cave, i.e., the Liri normal fault. The morphology and the evolution of the cave appear controlled by the fault zone. These speleoseismological results provided a new contribution on the knowledge of the past activity of the Liri fault and on the earthquake history of this sector of Central Apennines.

Download Full-text

Integrating macroseismic intensity distributions by a probabilistic approach: an application in Italy

10.5194/nhess-2021-113 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Andrea Antonucci ◽

Andrea Rovida ◽

Vera D'Amico ◽

Dario Albarello

Keyword(s):

Sixteenth Century ◽

Central Italy ◽

Probabilistic Approach ◽

Source Characterization ◽

Strong Earthquakes ◽

Intensity Prediction ◽

Macroseismic Intensities ◽

Earthquake Effects ◽

Available Information

Abstract. The geographic distribution of earthquake effects quantified in terms of macroseismic intensities, the so-called macroseismic field, provides basic information for several scopes including source characterization of pre-instrumental earthquakes and risk analysis. Macroseismic fields of past earthquakes as inferred from historical documentation may present spatial gaps, due to the incompleteness of the available information. We present a probabilistic approach aimed at integrating incomplete intensity distributions by considering the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties and the discrete and ordinal nature of intensity data. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories, and for two well-known strong earthquakes (i.e., 1980 Southern Italy and 2009 Central Italy events). A possible application of the approach is also illustrated relative to a sixteenth century earthquake in Northern Apennines.

Download Full-text