Equivalent life distribution and fatigue failure probability prediction

A predictive pitting model for estimating failure probabilities and service lives has been developed. This paper presents the failure probability analysis and a discussion of the model’s application to spur gears. Probability estimates are based on an initial crack size distribution and on possible interaction between cracks and inclusions. Plots of the fraction of components experiencing pitting (percent) versus life show less spread than would be expected. However, trends predicted based on parametric variation are consistent with service behavior. The model is applied by linking the pitting model with a spur gear performance code. Results are compared with AGMA standards.

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Research on Failure Probability Prediction Technology of Pressure Pipeline Based on PSO-SVM

DEStech Transactions on Engineering and Technology Research ◽

10.12783/dtetr/ecar2018/26403 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Fei LI ◽

Wei HAN

Keyword(s):

Failure Probability ◽

Probability Prediction ◽

Pressure Pipeline

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Assessment of a Failure Probability Prediction Technique for Ceramic Heat Exchanger Components

Volume 4: Manufacturing Materials and Metallurgy; Ceramics; Structures and Dynamics; Controls, Diagnostics and Instrumentation; Education; Process Industries ◽

10.1115/85-gt-178 ◽

1985 ◽

Author(s):

Kenneth O. Smith ◽

Roger B. Poeppel

Keyword(s):

Heat Exchanger ◽

Failure Probability ◽

Axial Flow ◽

Ambient Conditions ◽

Strength Tests ◽

Rapid Loading ◽

Prediction Technique ◽

Probability Prediction ◽

Point Bend ◽

Two Parameter

A study was conducted to establish analytical design techniques for predicting the failure probability of ceramic heat exchanger components. Three test specimen geometries representing subscale components of an axial flow, tubular ceramic heat exchanger were selected for evaluation. Failure probability predictions for the specimens subjected to mechanical loads were made using finite element stress and two-parameter Weibull analyses. Weibull parameters for sintered alpha-SiC were determined using as-sintered flexure bars in four-point-bend strength tests. Assessments of the prediction accuracy were made by failure testing populations of the three specimen geometries fabricated using sintered alpha–SiC. Tests were conducted at ambient conditions and with a rapid loading rate. Experimental results indicate that reasonably accurate failure probability predictions can be made.

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Evaluation of Thermal Fatigue Failure Probability at a Mixing Tee Subjected to Random Fluid Temperature Fluctuation

SNA + MC 2013 - Joint International Conference on Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo ◽

10.1051/snamc/201401305 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Masaaki Suzuki ◽

Rui Chihara

Keyword(s):

Fatigue Failure ◽

Thermal Fatigue ◽

Failure Probability ◽

Temperature Fluctuation ◽

Fluid Temperature

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Prognostic Health Monitoring Method for Fatigue Failure of Solder Joints on Printed Circuit Boards Based on a Canary Circuit

Volume 10: Micro- and Nano-Systems Engineering and Packaging ◽

10.1115/imece2013-65317 ◽

2013 ◽

Author(s):

Kenji Hirohata ◽

Yousuke Hisakuni ◽

Takahiro Omori ◽

Tomoko Monda ◽

Minoru Mukai

Keyword(s):

Fatigue Failure ◽

Health Monitoring ◽

Failure Probability ◽

Printed Circuit Boards ◽

Solder Joints ◽

High Density ◽

Probability Estimation ◽

Circuit Boards ◽

Printed Circuit ◽

High Density Packaging

Continuing improvements in both capacity and miniaturization of electronic equipment such as solid state drives (SSDs) are spurring demand for high-density packaging of NAND-type flash memory mounted on SSD printed circuit boards. High-density packaging leads to increased fatigue failure risk of solder joints due to the decreased reliability margin for stress. We have developed a failure precursor detection technology based on fatigue failure probability estimation during use. This method estimates the cycles to fatigue failure of an actual circuit by detecting broken connections in a canary circuit (a dummy circuit of daisy-chained solder joints). The canary circuit is designed to fail earlier than the actual circuit under the same failure mode by using accelerated reliability testing and inelastic stress simulation. The statistical distribution of the strain range of solder joints can be provided by Monte Carlo simulations based on the finite element method and random load modeling. A feasibility study of the failure probability estimation method is conducted by applying the method to a printed circuit board on which a ball grid array (BGA) package is mounted using BGA solder joints. The proposed method is found to be useful for prognostic health monitoring of solder joint’s fatigue failure.

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